The existing challenges make the chance of achieving them on time “very difficult.”
Possible scenarios for the upcoming Libyan elections
Dabaiba seeks to run in the elections.
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The Libyan people aspire to break free from the period of civil war and live in peace.
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On November 7, the Libyan High Electoral Commission announced the opening of candidacy for the presidential and parliamentary elections, as well as revealing the conditions that must be met by the candidate for the presidential elections. All, where the victory of one of the candidates in the first round requires obtaining 50% + 1 of the total number of votes, and if none of the candidates obtains this percentage, the second round is resorted to, in which the two candidates who obtained the most votes in the first round compete.
confused scene
Despite the international community’s support for the completion of the elections on their scheduled date on December 24, there are still a number of challenges that may hinder their holding, which can be clarified as follows:
1- Security challenges in the West
Despite the relative stability that the Libyan interior has witnessed since the ceasefire decision in October 2020, and the associated freezing of military confrontations between East and West, this has not resulted in stopping the ongoing fighting between armed militias deployed in western Libya, which erupts from time to time. .
The security situation has begun to deteriorate increasingly during the recent period, which is linked to the existence of attempts aimed at disrupting the holding of elections, or to ensure its control over areas with a relative weight influencing the voting process, or even to enhance its hegemony and gains and impose a fait accompli.
2- Severe political struggles
The relations between the members of the transitional authority are witnessing exacerbating internal crises. In addition to the traditional tensions between the National Unity Government and the House of Representatives in Tobruk, disagreements erupted between the government and the Presidential Council, which were clearly embodied, finally, over the file of dismissal of Minister of Foreign Affairs Naglaa al-Manqoush, as well as within the government of Abdel Hamid al-Dabaiba. The same, as in the disputes between the latter and the first deputy prime minister of the Libyan government, Hussein Al-Qatrani.
3- Disagreement over the election law
There are still severe tensions between the Libyan parties regarding the parliamentary and presidential elections laws. Despite the High Elections Commission’s reliance on the two laws issued by the Libyan Parliament, the Supreme Council of State, which is dominated by the Brotherhood, continues to reject the laws and its efforts to obstruct the holding of elections. .
Matters became more complicated after the intervention of the UN mission, and its request to Parliament to make some amendments to the laws regulating the elections, including removing obstacles to the candidacy of the occupants of transitional positions in the state, in reference to Abdel Hamid al-Dabaiba, Prime Minister, who revealed his intention to run, as well as a request to amend the election date. Parliamentary elections so that parliamentary and presidential elections are held in parallel on their scheduled dates, which opens the door to a new legal crisis.
4- Attempt to take out the mercenaries
The current variables reflect the existence of a European-American consensus regarding the settlement of the Libyan crisis, especially with regard to the elections and the exit of mercenaries and foreign forces, which is clearly reflected in the joint statements issued frequently by the embassies of these countries, although the United States does not exercise any pressure in reality. It seems that Washington is using the Turkish role as a bargaining chip for Russia to get its mercenaries out of eastern Libya.
Possible scenarios
Within the framework of the previous data, three possible scenarios can be put forward regarding the paths of the next stage related to the elections, as follows:
1- The scenario of postponing the elections indefinitely
Despite the intense internal moves by the Electoral Commission to hold the parliamentary and presidential elections on schedule next December, there are indications that enhance the possibility of delaying them. The most prominent of these indicators are the attempts of members of the transitional authority to obstruct the holding of the elections despite their official declaration of commitment to the due date.
The most prominent indicators of the possibility of postponing the elections are the following factors: Confirmation of a report issued by the French “Africa Intelligence” website, to pressure exerted by the Dabaiba family to postpone the elections. He added that "everyone in power does not want elections to be held."
Likewise, the electoral law poses another problem, especially if the lawsuit submitted by the head of the State Council, Khaled Al-Mashri, to challenge the constitutionality of the presidential election law is accepted, with the possibility of an appeal still open even if the elections are completed.
On the third hand, the deterioration of the security situation in western Libya, in light of the armed militia’s domination of the scene, with attempts by Brotherhood members, led by the leaders of the State Consultative Council, to threaten the use of armed violence to prevent the holding of elections in the western Libyan region, is a factor. It is likely to postpone it, especially after the moves made by Khaled Al-Mashri through meetings with a number of mayors and dignitaries of cities in western Libya, to incite them to prevent the elections in their regions.
Added to this is the role of the external factor, especially Turkey, in obstructing the holding of the elections in order to preserve its areas of influence, which may lose its military presence there in the event of the election of a president who does not belong to the "Brotherhood" movement.
It is noted that postponing the elections without setting a specific time frame will lead some internal parties to question the legitimacy of the unity government after the date of December 24, and then the return of the parallel government in eastern Libya, and the consolidation of the internal division, with the escalation of the possibilities of a resurgence of armed conflict between East and West, which is The scenario that Libyan Foreign Minister Najla Al-Manqoush warned against.
2- The scenario of amending the international map
This scenario is based on the intervention of the United Nations, backed by international powers, by proposing a new initiative that includes a new time frame for parliamentary and presidential elections that does not exceed six months, preceded by a resolution of most controversial files, foremost of which are the laws regulating elections and conditions for candidacy, and the file of mercenaries and foreign forces.
This scenario may support the call of the UN envoy, Jan Kubis, last October 30 regarding the introduction of some amendments to the laws regulating the presidential and parliamentary elections, which came in parallel with the initiative of the member of the Presidential Council, Abdullah Al-Lafi, which includes a detailed proposal for a new political roadmap, which includes Postponing the date of the elections to the spring of 2022, instead of the date set for next December 24.
3- The scenario of holding the elections on time
There are indicators that may enhance the possibility of this scenario, perhaps the most prominent of which is the continuation of logistical preparations in preparation for the voting process, in addition to the announcement by many actors inside the country that they will run for the elections, led by Khalifa Haftar and Fathi Bashagha, with Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi ready to run, and the intense movements Dabaiba’s preparations to announce his candidacy in the elections reflect a possible indication that the Brotherhood has abandoned the policy of obstructing the elections in order to support holding them, especially since Dabaiba is considered affiliated with the Brotherhood’s movement, although it is noticeable that the legal position regarding the possibility of Dabaiba’s candidacy has not been resolved yet.
International pressures, mainly American and European, and the international ones, may represent another indication about the possibility of completing the elections on time, especially after the announcement by the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Rosemary DiCarlo, on October 22, the arrival of a group of international observers to Libya.
Existing challenges
It is noted that even if Libya succeeds in holding the elections on time, it still faces some challenges that can be clarified as follows:
1- Attempting to obstruct voting in the West:
In the event that the elections are completed on time, there are no guarantees regarding the prevention of lawlessness that would obstruct the voting process or affect the conduct of the electoral process, especially in the western Libyan region, where the state’s authority is retreating in favor of a wide range of militias, whether affiliated with the government or outside about her.
2- Rejection of election results:
It is noted that there is another problem related to the extent of expected acceptance of the results of the voting process, as the losing party will often reject the election results, which may open the way for the scenario of partition and civil war, especially since the Brotherhood leader, Khaled Al-Mashri, had threatened to resort to violence If Haftar wins the presidential elections.
3- The dangers of splintering the votes of the electorate:
There is another dilemma related to the map of potential candidates for the presidential elections, which may lead to the fragmentation of the votes of the electorate among parties supported by the same popular base, which applies mainly to both Haftar and Saif al-Islam, as well as Aqila Saleh, which may lead to the loss of these parties and the decisive victory. For the benefit of another party in the event of lack of coordination between them.
moves
It seems that there are intense international and regional movements to search for a consensual formula on the paths of the Libyan crisis and to avoid returning to square one, and although the current data reinforce the scenario of making amendments to the road map that include a new time frame for the parliamentary and presidential elections, the international and regional movement and the intense contacts between All actors may produce a new consensual formula that pushes towards holding the elections on time.
• International pressures, mainly American and European, and the international may represent another indication about the possibility of completing the elections on time, especially after the announcement by the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Rosemary DiCarlo, on October 22, the arrival of a group of international observers to Libya.
Postponing the elections without setting a specific time frame that will push some internal parties to question the legitimacy of the unity government after the date of December 24, and then the return of the parallel government in eastern Libya, and the consolidation of the internal division, with the escalation of the possibilities of a return of armed conflict between East and West, which is the scenario The Libyan Foreign Minister, Najla Al-Manqoush, warned him.
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