As a result of the new changes in the region
Iran's influence is declining in the Middle East
Young men pass by the destroyed silos in the Beirut port as a result of a huge explosion, in which the Lebanese believe that Hezbollah was involved.
EPA
Since Raisi won the election, his administration has stressed that improving relations with neighboring countries will be a top priority.
archival
Abdollahian made a controversial stance at the recent Baghdad summit when he stood in the front row reserved for leaders of countries when taking souvenir photos.
AFP
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It seems that Iran's foreign policy will face difficult times in the next stage.
Given the global discontent with Iran's approach to its nuclear program, the delay in returning to negotiations, in addition to developments in its backyard, all of this undermines Iran's claims to a successful "resistance" and growing influence.
Since Ibrahim Raisi won the presidential elections on June 18 of this year and came to power in August of the same year, his administration has stressed that improving relations with neighboring countries will be a top priority.
But Raisi appointed Hossein Amir Abdollahian to the position of foreign minister, even though he has very limited experience in Middle Eastern affairs.
During his speech to gain the parliament's confidence, Amir Abdollahian, who previously served as deputy foreign minister for Arab and African affairs, reiterated his emphasis on improving Iran's relations with countries in the region as his country's priority. On July 22, referring to Iran's relations with groups such as the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi Shiite groups, he said, "We in West Asia seek to institutionalize the achievements of the resistance on the ground." Despite what the minister said, recent developments in The Middle East was not in Iran's interest.
Iran's closest ally, the Lebanese "Hezbollah", is being blamed for various problems in Lebanon, including the massive explosion that took place in Beirut in August 2020. Members of the party were involved in the armed clashes that took place on 14 October, which erupted during Protests against investigations related to the Beirut port explosion.
Although Hezbollah denies its involvement in the violence, many Lebanese, who have participated in street protests for more than two years, want to see an end to Iran's meddling in their country's affairs.
There are growing fears that a new civil war could now break out in Lebanon.
historical enemy
In Afghanistan, meanwhile, the Taliban movement, a historical enemy of Iran, has returned to power, which has led to growing fears about the fate of Afghan Shiites, who have been targets of attacks by ISIS in Iraq, Ahrar al-Sham, and ISIS Khorasan.
In Iraq, the recent parliamentary elections came as a shock to Iran-backed Shiite groups, as the Sadrists, led by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, won the majority of seats in parliament.
Independent candidates and political currents that emerged after several months of protests in the streets of Iraq in 2020 won dozens of seats.
It is also worth noting that these elections recorded the lowest voter turnout since the US invasion of Iraq, which led to the formation of the new Shiite-dominated political system.
In addition, Iraq seeks to play an independent role and become a balancing force between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which would reduce Tehran's influence.
During the closing ceremonies of the last summit that took place in Baghdad on August 28, which included a number of leaders of the countries of the region, Amir Abdollahian made a controversial position when he stood in the first row reserved for the leaders of countries when taking pictures, which is considered a violation of the protocol, and reinforces doubts about the intentions of Iran on the Arab countries.
Arab countries have long complained about the role of the militias and other groups they formed, and were supported by the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
The current Iranian foreign minister is known for his close relations with the Quds Force, and his appointment, which was intended to demonstrate Iran's focus on the region, is, in fact, reinforcing Arab states' grievances over Iranian interference.
On the positive side for Tehran are the talks that began under a major predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The normalization of relations between the two countries could be an important achievement for Raisi's government.
But the détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran will not change much, as developments on the borders in northern and northwestern Iran are not in Tehran's interest.
Border tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan ignited a dangerous war of words, and maneuvers carried out by the Iranian army near the border with the Republic of Azerbaijan led Baku to conduct joint military exercises with Turkey and other maneuvers with Turkey and Pakistan.
On October 17, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev criticized Iranian officials in a short video recording, in his military uniform, saying: “Don't make us angry.
Calm down.
And if you say bad things about us in the media, we will walk over your heads.
There is no one in the whole world who stands by you.”
On October 21, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: “I do not expect the recent events to lead to a military confrontation between Iran and Azerbaijan, because on the one hand, Azerbaijan has a relationship with Israel, and on the other hand, Iran takes into account the large number of Iranian residents of origin. Azerbaijani.
Indeed, Tehran's regional problems are rooted in greater difficulties.
It cannot expect success with its neighbors without solving the trade and investment problems and obstacles it suffers from, which includes Iran's failure to enact financial transparency laws required by the Financial Action Task Force to counter money laundering and terrorist financing (FATF), not to mention the continuation of US sanctions.
Although Iran has said that it will return to nuclear negotiations on November 29, the significant delay in returning to negotiations is causing anger among many parties even among Iran's friends, such as Russia and China.
Meanwhile, Iranian officials from the previous Rouhani government stressed that China, despite continuing to buy Iranian oil indirectly, would not be able to increase trade and investment with Iran without ratifying the FATF laws.
Accordingly, and contrary to the rhetoric promoted by Raisi's government, Iran will not be able to improve its relations well with regional countries until it solves its global problems.
And if Tehran continues to refuse to resolve its differences with the United States about returning to negotiations and complying with the JCPOA, for example, even Iran's friends can turn their backs on Tehran.
• Iran's closest ally, the Lebanese "Hezbollah", is being blamed for various problems in Lebanon, including the massive explosion that occurred in Beirut in August 2020.
• The détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran will not change much. The developments on the borders in northern and northwestern Iran are not in Tehran's interest. Border tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan ignited a dangerous war of words, and maneuvers carried out by the Iranian army near the border with the Republic of Azerbaijan led Baku to conduct joint military exercises with Turkey, and other maneuvers with Turkey and Pakistan.
• In Iraq, the recent parliamentary elections were a shock to the Iranian-backed Shiite groups, as the Sadrists, the independents and the new political currents won the majority of seats in parliament.
Saeed Jafari ■ Europe-based Middle East analyst
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