Alexandria, the historical “bride” of the Mediterranean in northern Egypt, stands in the crosshairs of 5 scenarios between the possibility of drowning or survival, in an ancient battle that drew great attention recently, following an official British warning of the possibility of the city sinking with the American cities of Miami and Shanghai, China.
During his participation in the United Nations Climate Change Conference in the Scottish city of Glasgow - ending on November 12 - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that "only 4 degrees of heat will make us say goodbye to entire cities, Miami, Alexandria and Shanghai, all of which will sink under water."
This warning brought back the spotlight - according to the monitoring of the Anadolu Agency - on Egyptian and international studies and fears that spoke years ago of a danger threatening areas in Alexandria;
As a result of the rise in the water level due to the increase in temperatures as a result of climate change, in conjunction with measures to protect the city, which the Egyptian authorities say have been going on for years.
Two scenarios exist for the disappearance of Alexandria: slaughter and drowning (European)
According to an Egyptian academic specializing in dam engineering residing outside the country, who spoke to Anatolia, there are two scenarios for the disappearance of Alexandria: erosion and drowning;
The first is clear and well-known, while the second has its features slowly forming, in contrast to a third scenario for its survival, by filling in areas on the shores of the historic city with sand.
In addition to the scenario of backfilling or feeding with sand, there are two other scenarios to protect Alexandria, which the government says it has been working on for years. One of them is a technician related to placing concrete barriers and through early forecasting devices, and the second is an environmental one that specializes in supporting green projects to preserve the environment, and then confront climate change.
Alexandria is a historical coastal city founded by "Alexander the Great" more than two thousand years ago, and it is known as the "Bride of the Mediterranean", which surrounds it on 3 sides, and to its south lies Lake Mariout, and it has a famous port. October 13 last.
The barriers are also subjected to erosion over time from below, and this causes them to witness an irregular landing (European)
First, two scenarios for disappearance
Regarding the fate of Alexandria, Mohamed Hafez, an Egyptian academic specializing in the engineering of dams and mud coasts at a university in Malaysia, said, “Erosion (erosion) may continue and extend and expand on the coast of Alexandria at a slow but impressive pace, and this causes, over the years, the occurrence of the second scenario, which is the possibility of sinking beaches and lower areas of the city.
Hafez, one of the sons of Alexandria, warned in his speech to Anatolia that the rates of slaughter will increase significantly with time;
Because of the annual sea level rise between 10 and 15 millimeters, evidence of this is the addition of new quantities of concrete barriers every year.
He added that the barriers are also exposed over time to erosion from below, and this causes them to witness an irregular decline, and the encroachment of sea water continues with the rise in its level above them, and this threatens the entire coast to be devoured by huge waves.
Hafez warned that these huge waves will not leave any low area but will cover it, and this will result in a rise in the level of (salty) groundwater and its penetration under the foundations of houses, as well as deepening over a kilometer inside the city, exacerbating the malfunctions of the drainage networks and threatening agricultural areas.
He explained that the possible drowning will include all low-lying areas in Alexandria, not the whole city, as it will sink under a column of water ranging between 0.5 and 1.5 meters until the end of this century, and this will lead to the disappearance of the beaches with a low level east and west of Alexandria, such as “Mandara” and “Al-Montazah” And “Al-Anfoushi,” which is actually located at a level close to zero.
The height of the sea waves in Alexandria in a winter storm has become 10 or 15 meters (European)
He added that the height of sea waves in Alexandria in previous years did not exceed 8 meters during the worst (storm) winter, but now we hear official figures talking about 10 meters and 15 meters.
Emphasizing the threat of waves, Alexandria Governor Mohamed Al-Sharif said, in a televised statement last week, that "the city has been subjected to major torrential rains and floods since 2015, and it increases every year and leads to huge waves with the storms."
Hafez predicted that the possibility of drowning would not occur before the end of the current century (the 21st century), blaming climatic changes, wind speed and an expected rise in sea level as the full potential responsibility for the drowning.
He pointed out that if this happened, it would be the second drowning in the history of Alexandria, as it had already been subjected to floods prior to its Islamic era, including the Lighthouse of Alexandria, which was found under the waters of the eastern port and was known as "Cleopatra's Sunken Palaces".
According to Egyptian newspaper reports, studies by international organizations have previously warned of the risk of Alexandria drowning due to climate changes, including a report by the Economic Development Organization in 2009, and a study by the World Bank in 2007, especially that the Mediterranean climate has turned from calm to a hurricane-like climate, which The coasts of his cities hit the uncharacteristically and unexpectedly.
Backfilling with sand available at the bottom of the Alexandria sea must not be less than 4 meters above sea level (European)
Second: 3 survival scenarios
In contrast to the two scenarios of Alexandria’s disappearance, through slaughter and drowning, Hafez put forward a third scenario for the survival of the city, which is landfill, that is, feeding with sand, just as the Netherlands did to protect its lands from drowning, because it is located at sea level.
Hafez added to Anatolia that the scenario of filling in will be a real future protection and an integrated economic project.
He added that backfilling with sand available at the bottom of the Alexandria sea must not be less than 4 meters above sea level along its coast, to form what looks like a parallel city 3 km wide and 30 km long.
He stated that he experienced this idea during his work in the sea filling companies in Malaysia, which cut sand from the seabed and return it to the beach, to create new land and land and to benefit from it economically.
And he added, "The backfill can be used to create artificial islands, such as Palm Island in the Emirate of Dubai, which was built completely from sand cut from the bottom of the Arabian Gulf, as well as building the new Hong Kong airport after filling a water body and making it land."
Hafez explained that Alexandria did not exist during the era of the pharaohs (the ancient Egyptians), and it was built by Alexander the Great in 330 BC by filling the sea between two islands. It was originally the first city in this universe to be built using sea filling technology 2330 years ago, and for its historical importance it is a candidate today. To play a commercial role like "Jebel Ali" in the Emirates or Singapore.
Two official scenarios for the protection of Alexandria, the first of which is based on the establishment of concrete barriers or tongues (European)
This is a scenario that Egypt is already working on, as El-Araby El-Qashawy, head of the implementation department at the Beach Protection Authority at the Ministry of Irrigation, said in an interview with an Egyptian satellite channel on Tuesday, that work is underway to protect the 69 needy kilometers on the coast of the delta from the dangers of climate change and sea level rise.
He stated that "about 60% of this project has been completed, as sand bridges representing 100% protection were implemented, and they were formed from dredging products (dredging) Lake Burullus (north), to collect sand by wind during the seasons when it blows to form sand dunes."
In addition to this scenario, there are two other official scenarios for the protection of Alexandria, the first of which is a technical one based on the construction of concrete barriers or tongues (corridor) in the middle of the sea to face the erosion, within protection projects and the establishment of effective early forecast systems, and the second is an environmental scenario by supporting green projects that reconcile with the environment.
In a televised statement on Wednesday, the Egyptian Minister of Irrigation, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, said that the scenarios that Johnson talked about are "not surprising" and known, and a decree plan to confront them years ago, stressing that the government's protection moves will prevent Alexandria from sinking.
Jad Al-Qadi, head of the National Institute for Astronomical and Geophysical Research, said in a press statement last Friday that the state is doing its best to confront climate changes by expanding the cultivation of green spaces, as well as expanding the use of alternatives to renewable energy.
The Egyptian Minister of Environment, Yasmine Fouad, also revealed, in a televised statement, that the Ministry of Irrigation “has allocated more than 7 billion Egyptian pounds (445 million dollars) in the previous five or six years to implement protection measures on Egyptian beaches, especially Alexandria, or to implement great efforts at the level of ( early warning devices.
One of the government’s projects is to protect the vicinity of the historic Qaitbay Citadel from high waves and continuous erosion (Reuters)
Among the most prominent current projects in Alexandria, according to local press reports, is to protect the vicinity of the historic Qaitbay Citadel from high waves and continuous erosion in the main rock built on it, through the implementation of a 520-meter wave wall, the construction of a 100-meter-long marina, and a 120-meter concrete walkway , and a stone tongue 30 meters long, as well as feeding west of the castle with sand.
To confront the erosion processes that caused partial cracks in the archaeological sea wall, several constructions are underway, most notably a 280-meter-long sea wall made of stepped stones and concrete blocks.
The Alexandria Corniche is also being strengthened and developed by constructing a sea wall with a length of 835 meters, as well as constructing a series of submersible barriers, L-shaped sea tongues, and sea berths.