Ankara took advantage of the decline of the great powers to make gains
The West needs to understand Turkey's problems instead of confronting them
Germany and Turkey have a strong economic partnership.
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Washington was unable to stop the Russian missile deal.
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With the decline of Western global influence, policymakers in Washington and Brussels may need to ask the question: “Is confronting China, Russia and Turkey simultaneously a wise decision?” And the recent confrontation between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and 10 Western countries over whether Turkey should comply with the European Court of Human Rights' decision to release the activist and businessman, Osman Kavala, or whether these ambassadors have violated Article 41 of the Vienna Convention, is often a technical issue that can be complex.
What needs to be understood here is not necessarily whether Erdogan will expel their ambassadors, but he can issue such an unprecedented threat without consequences.
Indeed, in a move that some saw as an American retreat and "a big win for Erdogan," Washington immediately pledged that it would respect Turkey's internal affairs in the Kavala affair.
In the past, Erdogan publicly reprimanded the late Israeli President Shimon Peres for the Israeli attack on Gaza, and Turkish forces penetrated into Syria, minutes after receiving a threatening message from US President Donald Trump, and Erdogan remained ready to challenge the West through an independent foreign policy that affirms That “the world is bigger than the five members” of the United Nations Security Council.
independent policy style
Over the past decade, Erdogan's increasingly independent foreign policy pattern has emerged and has gained increasing Western acceptance. For example, Washington tried for 17 months to persuade Turkey to cancel the purchase of the Russian S-400 defense system. When American efforts failed, the United States was forced to impose sanctions through law, in December 2020; However, it chose to punish Turkey narrowly (only five out of the 12 sanctions provisions stipulated in the Penal Code). This is in order not to significantly harm the US-Turkish bilateral relations. The US State Department also emphasized that the sanctions "are not intended to undermine Turkey's military capabilities or combat readiness," and that "the sanctions do not apply to companies affiliated with the Turkish Ministry of Defense." Not only was Turkey troubled by the penal code, but Erdogan also announced, in September, the possibility of Ankara acquiring more Russian missiles.
Why is the West increasingly unable to influence Turkey's domestic and foreign policy making?
The answer is that the general decline of the West has created a favorable environment for Turkey to begin resolving a number of decades-old issues, including the PKK threat, the maritime dispute in the Aegean, and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
retreating west
The past decade witnessed rapid economic, social and political decline in Western democracies;
While the lasting impact of the devastating financial crisis of 2008, persistent economic stagnation, low growth, persistent unemployment, aging and declining population, factors that made European economies very fragile.
The influx of refugees and immigrants on both sides of the Atlantic has given rise to populism and powerful leaders, threatening democratic values. And the European Union's eastern members are increasingly defying Brussels. Freedom of movement in the European Union is no longer as free as it used to be. The fear was so great that it prompted London to secede from the European Union in order to make its own sovereign decisions. The division between east and west, and north and south, was greater than ever in the European Union.
The economic and political collapse, in turn, led to social upheaval throughout the Western world. From Black Lives Matter riots to mass shootings and an attempted coup in the US Capitol, the United States now projects an impression of a Third World country, as opposed to a beacon of democracy and a burgeoning superpower. Huge economic and social issues at home created an uproar among American voters, to put democracy and the economy first, forcing American policymakers to adopt a timid foreign policy. A byproduct of this risk aversion is the new American isolationism, which explains the decline of US influence in the Middle East, the eastern Mediterranean, the southern Caucasus, and Central Asia. This "risk aversion" is, in fact, one of the main reasons for the dramatic American flight from Afghanistan.
Similarly, in Europe, economic stagnation at the bloc level; Unemployment, and the outbreak of social unrest, caused European policymakers to turn inward, creating a sense of Europe's isolation. Having lost more than 40 soldiers since 2013, with no end in sight, President Emmanuel Macron decided to end France's "eternal war" in its former colonies in West Africa, and began withdrawing French soldiers from Mali. For Germany, trade with Turkey is far more important than Greece's maritime claims in the eastern Mediterranean. Germany is preparing to sell six Type 214 submarines, which would give Turkey an advantage in the eastern Mediterranean, angering Greece, a member of the European Union.
Erdogan was able to exploit Western turmoil, and its corresponding inability to influence global affairs, to Turkey's advantage.
With its ever-growing domestic defense industry and strong leadership, Turkey scored points in Libya, West Africa and the South Caucasus against France;
In Syria, it was registered against the United States;
And in the eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus, against Greece.
And the internal European competitions, as a direct result of European decline, benefited Turkey.
In an effort to prevent France from ascending to European leadership in the post-Brexit era, the United Kingdom has sided with France's political opponent, Turkey.
honest dialogue
In 2020, the Vice-President of the European Union, Josep Borrell, acknowledged that “Europe is facing a situation where the old empires (China, Russia and Turkey) are returning with an approach that affects its immediate neighbours, as well as globally.”
And, as we saw in the recent Kavala case, the Biden administration has shown a constant desire to provoke Ankara in every way, shape or form possible.
It has been repeatedly proven that the more Washington wants to harm Erdogan, the stronger his response will be.
With Western influence waning, policymakers in Washington and Brussels may need to ask, is it wise to confront three countries, China, Russia and Turkey, simultaneously?
Perhaps it is time for Western policymakers to have an honest dialogue with Turkey, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and a candidate for membership in the European Union;
Understand Turkey's problems.
The West would benefit from working closely with Turkey, not fighting it.
• Economic and social issues at home created an uproar among American voters, to put democracy and the economy in the first place, forcing American politicians to adopt a timid foreign policy.
• The influx of refugees and immigrants on both sides of the Atlantic has given rise to populism and powerful leaders, threatening democratic values. And the European Union's eastern members are increasingly defying Brussels. Freedom of movement in the European Union is no longer as free as it used to be.
• Six Type 214 submarines, which Germany is preparing to sell to Ankara, giving Turkey an advantage in the eastern Mediterranean.
Ali Demirdash is Professor of Political Science at the University of South Carolina and a Fulbright Scholar.
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