Strong rebound in carbon emissions around the world, after the Covid parenthesis

A coal-fired power station in Nantong, China.

AP

Text by: RFI Follow

3 min

5.4% decrease then 4.9% increase: the Covid crisis will only have been a parenthesis for the climate.

Global CO2 emissions, the main greenhouse gas, have picked up again, leaving less and less time to counter global warming, warns an annual study by the Global Carbon Project.

But the distribution of emissions is uneven, for example between China and the EU.

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The pandemic had brought to a halt much of the world and its economy which was very dependent on fossil fuels. Containment, the paralysis of transport and trade have caused a

of 5.4% in total emissions in 2020. But in 2021, they should rebound by 4.9% to come closer to less than 1% of the absolute record of 2019, according to this study by the Global Carbon Project, published on the occasion of COP26. This group of international scientists studies

 global carbon

“ 

”, or the amount of CO2 that can be emitted for a given result.

Because despite the promises of “green” post-Covid recovery plans, this recovery is mainly done with fossil fuels: emissions due to coal should thus exceed their level of 2019, that is to say before the crisis of Covid, although below their all-time high of 2014, and those due to gas reach their all-time high.

Of course, emissions from oil, projected to increase by 4.4% for 2021, do not catch up with their 2019 level, but the authors stress that the transport sector has not yet recovered to its pre-crisis levels and that the rebound is therefore likely to accelerate.

As a result, the remaining “carbon budgets” so as not to exceed the objectives of the Paris Agreement, i.e. a warming compared to the pre-industrial era clearly below + 2 ° C, and if possible at + 1.5 ° C , are dwindling dangerously.

China at 31% of emissions

The study is therefore a " 

 ", underlines for AFP the climatologist Corinne Le Quéré, one of the authors.

► Also read: 

The geographic distribution of emissions for 2021 illustrates these fears. China, the world's leading emitter since 2007 with around a quarter of emissions, will see its share jump to 31% in 2021. This share could have been pushed up, because the country emerged from the Covid crisis before the others. Chinese emissions had indeed increased by + 1.4% in 2020, while those of the United States, the world's second largest emitter, fell by 10.6%, those of the European Union, third emitter, by 10.9%. and India, fourth, 7.3%. The 2021 projections call for increases of 4%, 7.6%, 7.6% and 12.6% respectively.

The pandemic was short-lived and does not offer us a trajectory for the Paris Agreement [...] In China, emissions have increased by almost 4% according to our projections from 2020 to 2021. There has been a rebound in emissions with the economic recovery in China and India and in fact, the growth of 2021 is stronger than the decline or small growth of 2020. So we are on the return to carbon growth for now.

Philippe Ciais, director of the climate and environmental sciences laboratory at CNRS and one of the authors of the study

The authors of the study therefore call for “ 

 ”.

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