Ethiopian power on the verge of faltering after a year of war in Tigray
A member of the special forces of the Afar region next to the ruins of a house in Tigray, December 9, 2020 © Eduardo Soteras / AFP
Text by: Léonard Vincent Follow
6 mins
Ethiopia entered uncharted territory this week.
The situation there is very uncertain after the capture, by the Tigrayan rebellion, of a strategic lock opening the road to Addis Ababa.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on Tuesday declared a state of emergency suspending all freedoms and giving all power to the army, while its power seems to be faltering.
And that, while this Thursday, November 4, it has been a year to the day since the war began.
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Who would have thought a year ago that Ethiopia would be where it is today?
What began as an operation to "
restore the rule of law
", as the federal government assured it, quickly degenerated into massacres of rare violence, almost behind closed doors.
And now the federal capital, Addis Ababa, is under threat of a takeover by the Tigrayan rebels and their allies of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) who are fighting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Two projects for Ethiopia
The explanation may be found in the nature of the country itself.
For a year, in Ethiopia, the belligerents have indeed
waged a war "
of extreme brutality
"
, if we are to believe the UN and the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, not only for the control of the immense Ethiopian territory, but for the very identity of the State.
These are two projects that clashed with guns in hand.
Members of an Amhara militia near the Tigray border, July 14, 2021. © EDUARDO SOTERAS / AFP
“
What happened in Tigray is not
'yet a civil war in Africa'
, as one might put it trivially,
” explains Kjetil Tronvoll, a researcher from the University College of Oslo, who kept in touch. with the Tigrayan leaders before and after the war. “
Because the bone of contention, the central issue we are fighting for
,” he says, “
has deep roots in Ethiopian history.
Once again, there is a struggle to determine what Ethiopia is, for a vision of Ethiopia and how it should be organized. That is to say: the central authority against the political autonomy of the peripheries.
"
The belligerents are indeed carriers of an antagonistic vision of this old changing imperial unit that is Ethiopia.
On the one hand, the Tigrayans - whose base is shaped by the idea of independence - formulate a demand for autonomy, national, since they were expelled from federal power in 2018. And on the other, since Addis Ababa, affirms the supranational, centralizing project of the federal government and its regional allies, in particular the Amhara nationalists who want to assert their preeminence in the affairs of the country after years of marginalization, when the Tigrayans wielded power with one hand of iron.
The "
exaltation megalomaniac
" of Ahmed Abiy
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed during an election rally on June 16, 2021 © EDUARDO SOTERAS / AFP
However, this project is piloted by Abiy Ahmed, a man who has a more personal vision of this war, according to many observers of Ethiopia. "
I believe that his project is messianic,
" explains Eloi Fiquet, for example, from the École des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, echoing many colleagues. “
He believes in his destiny and thinks that he is guided by divine Providence
,” he continues.
Trials, he sees them as trials sent by God, which once overcome will reveal a grand Ethiopia. I believe that we can no longer really speak of a political project, but of a megalomaniac exaltation.
"
In the university as in the chanceries, it seems that many understood a little late, and a little dumbfounded, what was the real project of the Nobel Peace Prize 2018, when he reconciled with the Eritrean enemy brother: put an end to the arrogant impunity of their common enemy, the former masters of the country, the leadership of the TPLF, the Tigrayan party which had then entrenched itself in its province and was accused of fomenting division and of seeking to destabilize the country in order to to survive.
Result: a year of incredible violence for the Tigrayan and Amhara civilian populations, as well as for
the Eritrean refugees
, prisoners of
ethnic settling of
scores
and of
an organized famine
. And in June, after more rebels - including new recruits fleeing massacres in cities taken over by the government - descended from the mountains to recapture their capital Mekele, the Ethiopian federal army collapsed.
“
Even before the outbreak of the conflict
,” explains Eloi Fiquet, “
the Ethiopian government pursued a policy of dividing the army, supporting the reinforcement of regional special forces and not opposing the formation of militias. However, in the current conflict, it is the latter which are at work. But as they are made up of fanaticized extremists, the army, having a balanced position on a national scale, has been weakened from within in its capacity to command and coordinate.
"
The fighting then shifted to the neighboring states of Afar and Amhara.
Thus, in recent days, the seizure
of the strategic lock
of Dessie and Kombolcha, then the junction of the Tigrayans with the Oromo rebellion of the OLA, have finally opened the road to the capital.
After Addis Ababa, TPLF will target Asmara
What conclusions can be drawn from this disaster, after twelve months of hell?
First, that the war would not end with the capture of Addis Ababa, underlines Kjetil Tronvoll.
Expressing the point of view of the leaders of the TPLF, he recalls that the latter "
have said and repeated that, this time, the Eritrean dictator Issayas Afeworki would be held responsible for the atrocities committed in Tigray under his orders
".
“
If you translate this in simpler terms,” he
sums up, “
it means that the war will continue until Issayas Afeworki is overthrown in Asmara.
"Eloi Ficquet nuance, however:"
It is the great unknown
", he only concedes.
Issayas Afeworki, President of Eritrea.
PETER MARTELL / AFP
Regardless, the two academics believe diplomacy is out of the game at this point.
A year after its outbreak, Ethiopia's civil war seems to have come to a crossroads, a Gordian knot that only weapons can cut.
►Also listen: Decryption - Ethiopia: after 1 year of conflict in Tigray, can the rebels take control of Addis Ababa?
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