The UN conference "COP26" to discuss climate change measures has opened in the United Kingdom.
Attention is being paid to whether consistent measures can be taken to strengthen greenhouse gas emission reductions.
The United Nations Conference on Climate Change Countermeasures "COP26" was postponed for one year due to the influence of the new coronavirus, and opened in Glasgow in the north of England on the 31st.
At the opening ceremony, Secretary-General Espinosa of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change said, "We are now in an important phase of history. Rapid and large-scale emission reductions to maintain the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Or accept what humanity will spend in the future on a desolate planet. We must move forward in Glasgow. "
One of the focal points of COP26 is whether the 197 countries and regions participating in controlling the rise in global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius can work together, and discussions will be held until the 12th of this month toward the adoption of the outcome document. Will be exchanged.
Also, on the 1st and 2nd, speeches by the leaders of each country such as President Biden of the United States are scheduled.
Even if the greenhouse gas reduction targets announced by each country are achieved, the world is paying attention to whether the conference can take the same measures as the temperature rise is expected to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius.
What is "COP"?
"COP" is the "Meeting of the Parties" of the "Climate Change Framework Convention", an international treaty adopted by the United Nations in 1992.
In English, "Conference of the Parties" is called "COP" by the acronym because it is called "Conference of the Parties".
Currently, 197 countries and regions are participating in the "Climate Change Framework Convention", and since 1995, we have held "COPs" every year to hold discussions and move forward with global climate change initiatives.
At "COP3", which was held for the first time in Japan in 1997 and held in Kyoto, the "Kyoto Protocol", which obliges developed countries to reduce greenhouse gases, was adopted, creating an epoch-making framework for climate change countermeasures.
After that, at "COP21" held in Paris, France in 2015, as a new framework after the "Kyoto Protocol", the "Paris Agreement" was adopted, which stipulates that all countries including developing countries will work on reductions. ..
Many NGOs and media gathered at the "COP" as well as government officials from each country, and at the "COP25" held in Madrid, the capital of Spain, there were more than 10,000 NGO officials from the governments of each country. A total of more than 20,000 people participated, with 7,000 people and 2,000 media outlets from each country.
What is the "Paris Agreement"?
The "Paris Agreement" is an international framework for combating global warming.
It was adopted at "COP21" held in Paris, France six years ago in 2015, and came into effect in November of the following year, and has been ratified by about 180 countries and regions.
Keeping the world's average temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius compared to before the Industrial Revolution, striving to keep it at 1.5 degrees Celsius, and reducing global greenhouse gas emissions to virtually zero in the second half of this century. It is set as a goal.
Unlike the "Kyoto Protocol," which requires only developed countries to reduce emissions, all countries, including developing countries, are required to work on reductions.
In addition, each country is required to submit a reduction target to the United Nations every five years and report on the status of its efforts.
Raising reduction targets Can each country agree?
The focus of COP26 is whether countries can meet by raising reduction targets to limit the rise in average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The Paris Agreement, an international framework for global warming countermeasures adopted in 2015, aims to limit the rise in global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to before the Industrial Revolution. To do so, we must reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to virtually zero by 2050.
This goal has been announced by many countries, including Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The challenge is how to proceed by 2050, and it is also necessary to reduce global emissions by about 45% by 2030 compared to 2010.
However, according to the latest report released by the United Nations, even if countries achieve the greenhouse gas reduction targets submitted to the United Nations under the Paris Agreement, emissions in 2030 will not be halved compared to 2010. It turns out that it is expected to increase by 16%.
Even if each country achieves the reduction target for 2030 set by September, the average global temperature will rise by at least 2.7 degrees by the end of this century, which is far from achieving the target. ..
For this reason, the UK, the presidency of COP26, has set a global common goal of limiting the average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius instead of 2 degrees Celsius, and is calling on each country to raise its reduction target by 2030.
To achieve this goal, the United Kingdom has set itself to abolish coal-fired power, calling on developed countries to phase out by 2030 and developing countries by 2040.
Expert "Coal has never received so much attention"
2011年から日本政府のCOPの交渉支援に携わってきたIGES＝地球環境戦略研究機関の高橋健太郎さんは「過去にこれほど石炭が課題として注目されることはなかった。これは議長国のイギリスにとって優先順位が高いからということもある。COP26は自国の取り組みをアピールできる場でもあるので、議長国の掲げる課題への対応を 発表する場にもなる」として、会期中に各国や国際機関などが新たな政策や目標を発表する可能性もあるとしています。
COP26について、気候変動の国際交渉に詳しい東京大学未来ビジョン研究センターの高村ゆかり教授は「今回のCOP26は気候変動問題を話し合う場として注目だが、これだけの国際交渉を、しかも対面で持つのは新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大の中では初めてだ」として、対面での会議が実現したのは各国の気候変動問題への切迫感の表れだと指摘しました。
2015年に採択された「パリ協定」では世界の平均気温の上昇を産業革命前に比べ2度未満に保つとともに、1.5度に抑える努力もすることを掲げていますが、近年の気候変動の危機感の高まりから、EU＝ヨーロッパ連合やアメリカ、日本など多くは温度上昇を「1.5度」に抑えるために、2050年ごろまでに温室効果ガスの排出量を実質ゼロにする目標を掲げ始めています。
今回の会議の焦点について高村教授は「会議では、1.5度に抑えるための2050年までの実質ゼロなどの長期的な目標を世界の共通する目標として認識することを確認して対策を底上げするとともに、これに整合する2030年までの排出削減の目標とそのための方策を議論することが大事だ」と話していました。
In addition, at the conference, while the financial situation of each country is severe due to the measures against the new corona, how much developed countries can support the measures for developing countries and the rule of "carbon credit" called the "last piece" of the Paris Agreement It is important to agree on how to make it.
Furthermore, Professor Takamura said, "Financial institutions and investors are interested in the global movement toward decarbonization." , It may affect the management of the company, "he said, and asked Japan to pay attention to the whereabouts of the conference.
Focus on securing "funds"
“Funding” for climate change measures is also one of the focal points of this conference, as it costs various costs to achieve high goals.
Developed countries promise to contribute $ 100 billion annually by 2020 to 2025 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries and prevent damage from climate change. doing.
However, according to the announcement by the OECD = Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in September, the contribution amount in 2019 was only about 80 billion dollars, and the target was achieved in 2020 due to the recession caused by the new coronavirus. There is a widespread view that it may be difficult.
At this conference, in addition to how to achieve the goals so far, developing countries are calling for expansion of funds to counter the damage caused by climate change, so developed countries will contribute more funds. Whether or not to comply is also the focus.
Discussions will also begin on how financial support should be after 2025.
The reduction targets of each country
国連はCOP26に向けて、各国に温室効果ガスの排出削減の目標を提出するよう求めていました。
UNEP＝国連環境計画が今月、発表した最新の報告書は、日本やアメリカ、COP26の議長国のイギリスなど49か国とEU＝ヨーロッパ連合が、温室効果ガスの排出量を2050年ごろまでに実質ゼロにする目標を掲げているとしています。
今月には、石炭などエネルギー資源の輸出が経済を支え、気候変動対策に慎重な意見が根強かったオーストラリアも、2050年までに排出量を実質ゼロとする目標を表明しました。
またドイツはことし5月、実質ゼロにする時期を5年前倒しして2045年までとする新たな目標を示しています。
一方、2030年に向けた削減目標はさまざまで、日本はことし4月に2030年度の排出量を2013年度に比べて46％の削減を目指すと表明しました。
アメリカは2030年までに、2005年に比べ50％から52％の削減、イギリスは1990年に比べ、少なくとも68％の削減、EUは1990年に比べ、少なくとも55％の削減を目標にしています。
韓国は今月、2018年と比べた目標をこれまでの26.3％から引き上げて、40％とすると発表しました。
温室効果ガスの世界最大の排出国である中国は、2030年までに排出量を削減に転じさせ、2060年までに実質ゼロを実現できるよう努力するとしています。
各国には具体的な目標達成の道筋を示すことが求められていて、日本は再生可能エネルギーを主力電源として、最優先で最大限の導入に取り組み、2030年度の電源構成に占める割合を「36％から38％」とすることや、2035年までに乗用車の新車販売をすべて電動車にすることなどを掲げています。
This series of decisions is based on discussions under the Suga Cabinet, which has positioned climate change countermeasures as its main policy, and attention should be paid to what kind of climate change countermeasures will be launched in COP26, which will be the Kishida Cabinet. It has been.
Making rules for discharge transactions
The creation of rules that allow intergovernmental and private sector greenhouse gas emission reductions to be traded under UN certification is also called the "last piece" of the Paris Agreement, an international framework for climate change measures, and is discussed in COP26. It is one of the focal points.
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement adopted in 2015 includes a system that, if the greenhouse gas emissions from overseas are reduced by providing financial and technical support, can be incorporated as a reduction in the country with the certification of the United Nations. It was decided.
Originally, discussions were underway to create rules for the implementation of that system, aiming for an agreement at COP24 in 2018, but no agreement was reached at COP25 the following year, and other rules based on the Paris Agreement In the agreement, it is also called the "last piece" of the Paris Agreement.
The main reason for the difficulties in the talks is that some developing countries insisted that the reductions certified under the former Kyoto Protocol could be utilized under the new framework, the Paris Agreement. On the other hand, developed countries and others were reluctant to say that it would not lead to new reductions, and they were confused.
In addition, it has been necessary to further consider rules such as the countries that supported the reduction amount and the countries that supported it so that they would not be double-counted.
If this rule is established, it is expected that the merits of companies and others to carry out businesses that lead to emission reductions overseas will increase, the "decarbonization business" will be activated, and it will lead to the suppression of climate change.
Can each country find a consensus this time?
Negotiations on the "last piece" of the Paris Agreement are expected to continue until the end of COP26.
Professor Yukari Takamura of the University of Tokyo Future Vision Research Center, who is familiar with international climate change negotiations, said, "The rules for reducing emissions need to be carefully defined as to whether the transactions will lead to a substantial reduction in emissions. If an agreement is reached, climate change measures may accelerate significantly. I think it will be a difficult negotiation, but since measures to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees are urgent, I hope that we will reach an agreement at this COP. " I'm talking to you.
Focus on abolishing coal-fired power generation
今回のCOPでは二酸化炭素を多く排出する石炭火力発電の廃止をめぐり、どこまで踏み込んだ内容を打ち出せるのかも焦点の1つです。
今回のCOPの議長国であるイギリスのジョンソン首相は石炭火力について、先進国は2030年、途上国は2040年までに廃止することを提案する方針です。
そのイギリスはIEA＝国際エネルギー機関の2018年のデータでは石炭火力による発電が5％です。それをイギリス政府は2024年までにすべて廃止することを表明しています。
一方、ドイツは再生可能エネルギーの導入を積極的に進めているものの、石炭火力が37％余りを占めています。メルケル政権は国内の石炭火力を2038年までに廃止することをすでに決めています。また先月行われた連邦議会選挙で第1党になった社会民主党は、第3党の緑の党と第4党の自由民主党との連立交渉の中で、2030年までの石炭火力廃止を目指すことで合意しています。
アメリカも石炭火力が28％余りを占めていますが、2035年までの電力部門の脱炭素化を掲げ、発電に伴う二酸化炭素の排出をゼロにすることを目指しています。太陽光発電などの再生可能エネルギーや原子力発電の活用で石炭火力の削減分を補うほか、発電所から出る二酸化炭素を地中に貯蔵する技術を活用し排出を抑えていくとしています。
一方、日本は2019年度のデータで石炭火力による発電が31％余りを占めています。今月、閣議決定した「エネルギー基本計画」で、2030年度でも発電の19％を依然として石炭火力で賄うという見通しになっています。日本政府としては再生可能エネルギーを増やしても、2030年までの石炭火力の廃止は現実的に難しいという考えです。これに対して脱石炭を掲げるヨーロッパの国などから消極的だとの批判の声が上がる可能性もあります。
In addition, China, which is the world's largest greenhouse gas emitting country and coal-fired power accounts for more than 66%, is expected to continue to depend on fossil fuels for the time being.
Furthermore, in Southeast Asia and Africa, many countries have no choice but to rely on coal-fired power to meet the increasing demand for electricity due to economic development.
Under these circumstances, one of the focal points is how far we can come up with what we can do with COP.