Foreign Policy: Sudan's coup is an uncalculated gamble

Rebecca Hamilton, associate professor at the Washington College of Law at American University, says that the Sudanese army seized power in a gamble that no one would care about, and that its expectation that it would not face resistance at home or abroad is just wishful thinking.

She explained Hamilton At an

with the

location of

"Foreign Policy" (

app ) Alomirka- that the

Sudanese people are likely not to

accept the

army 's

seizure of

power, "as proud of

-an is

right -

pointing out that the

former Sudanese President Omar al -

Bashir was the

third dictator Osagtoh, and continued Their confidence and organizational capabilities since they have done so, over the past two years, are growing, as they prepare for a massive demonstration today, Saturday."

She said that what the Commander-in-Chief of the army, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, claimed was necessary to avoid a civil war and that the army was planning to move the country to democratic elections in July 2023, knowing those inside and outside Sudan are lies.

The future of Sudan and the region and the hope of democratic movements around the world depend, in part, on the ability of those outside Sudan to reject the false narrative promoted by Al-Burhan.

exudes rationality

She indicated that she gave an interview in 2019 - for an article in "Foreign Policy" - with Al-Burhan in the Sudanese presidential palace, describing his talk at the time as exuding rationality, saying that he likes to see himself as a servant of the people, and would like to portray his seizure of power as a palatable alternative to democracy or At least, to stave off chaos in the region.

The writer described Al-Burhan's seizure of power as a gamble, saying that he believes that the strong countries will acquiesce, but he forgets the enthusiasm and flexibility of the Sudanese people for democracy, and those who stand in solidarity with him abroad.

She pointed out that the Sudanese youth movement who reject the "coup" enjoys the confidence and support of the Sudanese people, saying that these young people have found ways to continue facing the repression of the Rapid Support militias and the army forces this week, and they were also able to convey their voice abroad despite the internet being cut off.

Inherited diseases of governance

She said that the pursuit of Sudanese democracy extends for decades, because the way in which the British ruled Sudan infected powerful Sudanese with diseases of governance since then.

Yet every new Sudanese generation has continued the struggle for democracy.

Hamilton went on to say that the Bashir era had led to the institutionalization of corruption, the normalization of state violence against civilians, and the entrenchment of an internal intelligence service, and that the Sudanese demanded the formation of a civilian government and instead obtained power shared with them by the military, and that result was what he could bear. The balance of power, with the unease of Sudanese civil society or the military.

The power-sharing arrangement - the writer says - meant that civilians had to work for a democratic transition with one hand tied behind their back.

However, they continued a very slow reform, and accountability for past corruption and atrocities was elusive.

Hamilton: Al-Burhan worked hard to sell himself to leaders in the Gulf countries (social networking sites)

sell himself

She stated that Al-Burhan worked hard to sell himself to leaders in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE as a non-ideological person who would keep regional Islamist fervor in check and maintain strict control over the population.

The Arab Gulf states responded, and their response paved the way, along with Russian support already flowing into Sudan’s security sector through the Wagner Paramilitary Group, is the basis for Al-Burhan’s gamble.

Feltman's threats

It is against this background, she said, that American influence dwindles from what it could have been, and, recognizing the fragility of the transition, the United States has worked with European allies to provide diplomatic and financial incentives to support civilian rule.

After Sudan was removed from the sanctions lists and promised significant financial aid, Jeffrey Feltman - the US special envoy to the Horn of Africa - carried a real threat with him when he traveled to Khartoum last week.

When Feltman warned the proof against interfering with the transition, the proof knew that removing these desirable rewards was a real possibility.

Clearly, this threat was not enough.

Hamilton concluded her article by saying that Washington urgently needs to continue the march in support of the will of the Sudanese people to communicate with the Gulf states, and to pressure them not to enable the coup more.