Four tortures of the US nuclear submarine collision incident in the South China Sea (hot conversation)
On October 8, Beijing time, the US Navy's Pacific Fleet confirmed that on October 2, local time, the USS Connecticut collided with an unknown object while submerging in the South China Sea, causing more than a dozen sailors on board to be injured.
According to a report from Agence France-Presse on October 11, local time, US officials said that the US Navy Seawolf class nuclear submarine "Connecticut" (SSN 22), which had previously crashed in the South China Sea, had arrived in Guam on October 8, local time.
To this day, the United States still refuses to disclose the specific details of the nuclear submarine collision incident.
In response to the US nuclear submarine collision incident, the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs raised four questions: What mission is the nuclear submarine dispatched to submerge quietly in the South China Sea this time?
What happened this time?
Why did it hit?
Did it cause a nuclear leak and bring nuclear pollution to the marine environment?
Regarding related issues, this newspaper invited three experts to conduct an in-depth interpretation of the incident.
The United States refused to disclose the specific details of the nuclear submarine collision incident. What secrets are there?
After the collision accident occurred on October 2, the US Pacific Fleet deliberately delayed and concealed the details of the accident, and only issued an unclear statement to the outside world five days later.
The “South China Sea Strategic Situational Awareness Program”, a think tank that has been tracking South China Sea issues for a long time, used open source data such as ship automatic tracking system, aerial broadcast automatic monitoring system and remote sensing satellite imagery to monitor that it was about 48.7 in the southeast of the Paracel Islands at about 10 am on October 3rd. In the sea, a suspected "Sea Wolf"-class submarine was found in a floating state.
Subsequent monitoring of the route showed that the submarine was heading for Guam.
On October 23, the "War Zone" section of the US The Drive website disclosed a satellite photo of the USS Connecticut nuclear submarine taken on October 20. This is also the first public photo of the submarine since the collision in the South China Sea. .
In the photo, the hull of the "Connecticut" does not appear to have suffered large-scale damage, but its bow has a large mask.
The column team speculates that the collision seems likely to occur below the waterline.
Wang Xiaopeng: The United States has always refused to disclose the specific details of the nuclear submarine collision incident, indicating that it has some strategic and tactical "silly" in the process.
Specifically, the United States is trying to implement "underwater frontier deterrence."
In recent years, the U.S. military has proposed the concept of "underwater tying dragons", which means that once the U.S. military and Asia-Pacific powers collide at sea, the U.S. military’s nuclear submarine-centric weapon system will carry out intensive offensives on the coast of the target country, blockade and cut off the opponent’s Maritime lines of communication.
The nuclear submarine collision incident exposed only the tip of the iceberg of the US deployment of underwater forces in the South China Sea.
The opaque information of the United States in this incident still stems from its Cold War mentality and zero-sum game mentality. This attitude will lead to a new low in the United States’ international credibility. It will not only be criticized by the international community, but also from its allies. Doubts will increase day by day.
Chen Xulong: The United States has always been willing to show its strength, leadership, and superiority through "information disclosure," and even use it to demonstrate and pressure its opponents.
However, this time it is uncharacteristically, and it has closed information about the nuclear submarine collision incident, which in itself can explain the problem.
The United States should be responsible for regional security and disclose this important information in order to dispel the doubts and concerns of regional countries.
If the United States refuses to do so, it will inevitably damage its information credibility and international image. It can only show that it is "guilty of a thief", extremely selfish but not confident. Regional countries will be more vigilant and guard against the US's rampant hegemony in the South China Sea, and strengthen resistance and opposition.
Guo Xiaobing: Nuclear safety is of great importance. The impact crosses national borders and must be communicated in a timely manner and responded in coordination.
If the US nuclear submarine collides in the South China Sea, if a nuclear leak occurs, it will have a serious impact on the ecology of the nearby sea area and affect the normal operations of the surrounding fishery, tourism and even shipping industries.
Today, the global supply chain has been hit hard.
We should be more vigilant against such risks.
The United States has an obligation to increase transparency, inform the international community of the details of the accident, and objectively assess its environmental hazards.
What is the purpose of the frequent incidents of the United States near the South China Sea?
In recent times, the United States has seen an increase in its operations in the South China Sea.
The latest news from the US media shows that the US and Japan aircraft carriers conducted a joint exercise in the South China Sea on October 25.
The US "Stars and Stripes" claimed that this was the first joint operation of the USS Carl Vinson in the South China Sea since its deployment from the US mainland in early August.
Guo Xiaobing: The U.S. war machine discontinued the war in the Middle East. After getting out of the quagmire of Afghanistan, it turned to great power competition with all its strength and its strategic focus was on the Indo-Pacific.
The United States has stepped up its deployment of aircraft carriers, strategic bombers, and nuclear submarines to patrol the South China Sea and its surrounding areas, piece together the AUKUS security alliance, and strengthened the four-sided security dialogue between the United States, Japan, India and Australia. These are all strategic measures in this context.
Just as the Middle East has been troubled for 30 years before, the Indo-Pacific region has now entered a troubled period, the arms race is on the line, and the risk of regional conflicts has increased significantly.
Wang Xiaopeng: The United States is currently undergoing in-depth adjustments to its military strategy, from focusing on counter-terrorism in the past to carrying out "great power confrontation." China's surrounding strategic layout, re-integration of allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region, to create a "wheel-shaped alliance system."
Different from the NATO model, in this system, the United States is the main axis, and other countries and regions, as spokes, have to revolve around the strategic needs of the United States. For the two wheels-the "US-Japan-India-Australia four-nation mechanism" and "US-UK-Australia" "Trilateral security partnership mechanism", the United States hopes that they can function in parallel, using whichever works.
Chen Xulong: The United States has multiple goals: one is to show its unparalleled military strength and superiority, to demonstrate its strong position in the sea and air, and to maintain its hegemony and maritime hegemony; the second is to promote "India" in the strategic and military fields. "Taiwan Strategy" is to carry out "competition of big powers" in the field of traditional security, to strategically contain China, strengthen military pressure on China, hedge or even weaken China's geostrategic and security advantages; third, through the strong presence and actions of the United States, to give Allies and partners cheered up and helped, tying these countries to the U.S. "chariot" for use by the United States.
The United States regards itself as a "Cold War victor" and attempts to use its "successful approach" against the Soviet Union during the Cold War to counter China, including geostrategic containment, alliance confrontation, and military contests as a major strategy to maintain its global hegemony.
But this "Cold War mentality" is obviously outdated, and China is by no means the Soviet Union, and China's peaceful rise is unstoppable.
The US military nuclear submarine that quietly appeared in the South China Sea shows what role the United States has played in the South China Sea?
For a long time, under the banner of "freedom of navigation," the United States has made waves in the South China Sea, posing a serious threat and a major risk to regional peace and stability.
The spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that the South China Sea is the common homeland of countries in the region and should not become a hunting ground for the United States to pursue its own geopolitical interests.
The United States frequently and on a large scale dispatches warships and aircraft to the South China Sea to provoke troubles, show off its force, undermine the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and threaten the sovereignty and security of China and other countries.
The United States is the biggest driver of militarization in the South China Sea.
The United States should change its course, stop the above-mentioned wrong actions, and play a positive role in the peace and stability of the South China Sea.
Chen Xulong: For a long time, the reason why the security of the South China Sea "wants for tranquility and winds, and the sea for tranquility and waves" is mainly because the United States has been making waves in the South China Sea from the game of great powers, geostrategy, and military confrontation. The role of security disruptor, provocateur and saboteur in the South China Sea.
The dispatch of the most advanced nuclear submarines to the South China Sea by the United States fully demonstrates that the United States is the biggest driver of militarization in the South China Sea.
The collision of a US nuclear submarine with an "unidentified object" indicates that US militarization in the South China Sea will bring about accidents, which will not only bring traditional security threats to the South China Sea, but may also cause non-traditional security threats such as nuclear leakage and environmental pollution.
In short, the U.S. military presence and adventurous actions in the South China Sea are the biggest threat and hidden danger to regional security. Its role is disgraceful and ugly, and it should be spurned by regional countries and peace-loving people.
Guo Xiaobing: The United States has played the role of spoiler and conflict intensifier.
The claimants in the South China Sea have different opinions on territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.
However, the situation in the South China Sea has become relatively stable after diplomatic efforts and dialogues by all parties.
For the purpose of strategic competition, the United States has basically played a negative and negative role from the sidelines to the intervention, to the use of contradictions, to provoke contradictions, and even to intensify contradictions.
The relevant countries in the South China Sea see this very clearly.
This is reminiscent of the gunboat policy of the Western colonists in the 19th century.
Wang Xiaopeng: At present, thanks to the joint efforts of China and ASEAN countries, the situation in the South China Sea is showing a positive trend of "stabilizing and improving". The actions of the United States have greatly undermined the peace and stability of the South China Sea and brought great problems to the regional situation. Certainty and unpredictability.
The intervention of the United States and other extraterritorial powers has become the biggest threat to the security of the South China Sea.
The United States is currently stepping up its efforts to "hold the three powers" at the same time in the South China Sea, that is, to seek "control of the sea and air", "control of microphones" and "power of lawmaking."
Among them, "dominance of sea and air power" includes: deploying more military power on the first island chain, increasing provocations by sea and air and electronic warfare in the waters surrounding China, and integrating and linking regional allies and partners.
"The right to make microphones" closely cooperates with the "right to make legal hammers."
In a word, one is to continue to concoct the "China threat theory", especially the "China's maritime threat theory," and the other is to encourage certain South China Sea claimants to confront China again.
What impact will the US nuclear submarine collision incident in the South China Sea and the US-UK-Australian nuclear submarine cooperation have on world nuclear security?
The collision of the US nuclear submarine and the establishment of the US-UK-Australia trilateral security partnership (AUKUS) and the development of nuclear submarine cooperation are almost at the same time. This is a sensitive point in time.
Since the United States implemented the so-called "Asia-Pacific Rebalancing Strategy", there have been frequent incidents of US warship collisions and plane crashes.
Russian military expert Konovalov pointed out that US ships and submarines deployed in the Asia-Pacific region often collide with various objects or civilian vessels, causing casualties, and their professionalism has been repeatedly criticized.
Wang Xiaopeng: These incidents show that the new US administration is pushing for an in-depth adjustment of its nuclear policy, two of which are worthy of attention.
First, the United States has always adopted an attitude of "appropriate and discarded" toward international law and international rules, and even distort international law to serve its own self-interest.
At present, the United States maliciously violates the spirit of the NPT, which is to put its "global hegemony" above global nuclear security; second, in recent years, the United States has been making in-depth adjustments to its nuclear policy. The transformation from “strategic deterrence type” to “practical application type” is an attempt to establish an underwater frontier deterrence system. The nuclear proliferation risk it brings will become one of the biggest security threats and challenges facing the Asia-Pacific region in the future.
Guo Xiaobing: The United States and Britain assisting Australia in developing nuclear submarines is an act of three countries in privately granting nuclear weapons delivery vehicles, nuclear technology, and nuclear materials within the Anglo-Saxon circle. It goes against the purpose and core obligations of the International Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
首先，造成大规模杀伤性武器运载工具扩散。核潜艇具有运载核武器的潜力，属于重要的大规模杀伤性武器运载平台。核潜艇与核武器有千丝万缕的联系。其次，扩散了可用于制造核武器的裂变材料。《不扩散核武器条约》第三条第二款规定，缔约国不得将特殊裂变物质提供给任何无核武器国家，除非受到各种保障措施的约束。由于核潜艇所用核材料涉及军用，国际原子能机构无权监督。这客观上为澳大利亚制造核武器创造了条件。历史上澳大利亚曾有过原子弹制造计划，英国第一次核试验也是在澳大利亚进行的。第三，可能造成铀浓缩技术扩散。美英核潜艇均使用高浓缩铀，而澳大利亚铀矿储量丰富。如果美英向澳转让铀浓缩技术，助其实现核燃料自给自足，那就与21世纪初曝光的国际核黑市交易相去无几。第四，将冲击国际核不扩散机制。既然澳大利亚这个无核武器国家可以堂而皇之地借发展核潜艇获取核材料，其他无核武器国家也可能起而效仿，由此带来的扩散风险后患无穷。最后，将刺激地区军备竞赛。澳大利亚水下攻击能力的强化，对周边国家来说绝非福音。澳大利亚在印太地区的和平记录并非白璧无瑕。周边国家基于自身安全考虑，可能被迫陷入军备竞赛的恶性循环。
Chen Xulong: The international community is facing an ever-increasing risk of nuclear proliferation. This huge risk will endanger human security, and it is difficult for any country to survive alone.
Therefore, in the field of nuclear safety, all parties must truly abide by international law conventions and unswervingly safeguard the hard-won nuclear non-proliferation mechanism.
From the perspective of actors, to maintain the international nuclear non-proliferation regime, nuclear powers must embody the responsibility of major powers, earnestly fulfill their responsibilities as major powers, and take the lead in safeguarding nuclear security, instead of taking the lead in undermining the international and regional nuclear security order and environment for their own interests.
In recent years, the United States has become more enthusiastic about engaging in "superpower competition" and geostrategic confrontation.
In order to put oneself in a so-called "strong position", he did not hesitate to adopt a risky policy in the field of nuclear safety, which brings huge risks of triggering the international nuclear arms race and nuclear proliferation, and poses a severe challenge to the international nuclear non-proliferation regime and the regional nuclear security order.
The United States and Australia are engaged in nuclear submarine cooperation. They think they have made a good move of geo-strategy. Through this move, Australia can be firmly tied to the chariot of the US "Indo-Pacific strategy". In fact, it is a dangerous move. Not only does the regional countries and the entire international community worry about nuclear proliferation and the nuclear arms race, but in the long run, the United States is bound to suffer the consequences of its narrow and short-sighted approach to nuclear security.
Zhang Hong