• A few days before the G20, Recep Tayyip Erdogan almost plunged Turkey into a huge international crisis.

  • The Turkish president ordered the expulsion of ten ambassadors, including those from seven NATO countries, before finally retracting this Monday evening.

  • Why did Erdogan take such a risk when Turkey is already isolated on the diplomatic and economic front and why has the Turkish president finally changed his tune?

Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not really known for being the calmest or the most diplomatic of leaders when it comes to settling disputes on the international stage. Despite this reputation as a solidly established head of state, seeing the President of Turkey order the expulsion of ten ambassadors from his country surprised many of the country's experts and diplomats. Expelling these ten ambassadors could have isolated Ankara even more, which is already suffering from its tumultuous relations with NATO, as with the European Union. To risk alienating the United States, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Canada, Norway and New Zealand did not seem reasonable.All the more so since the reason evoked [to sanction the support of the ambassadors for the release of the political opponent Osman Kavala] did not, according to observers, have enough to justify a measure of such magnitude.

Hanging from the lips of the Turkish president, they saw Erdogan backpedal on Monday, in the early evening.

Western ambassadors in Turkey have "retreated" and "will be more careful in the future," said the Turkish president, then renouncing to expel the ten ambassadors on the spot.

Why did Erdogan play the dangerous threat game and why has the Turkish president finally changed his tune?

Look elsewhere

The Turkish president is not at his first attempt and has tried a stratagem as old as the world: the diversion. To understand why Erdogan is attacking the rest of the world, it is paradoxically to Turkey that we must turn. "Turkey is undergoing a very violent economic crisis," supports Alican Tayla, country specialist at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris). Inflation is rising and household purchasing power has never been so low. Since January 2021, the national currency has lost nearly 25% of its value against the dollar and three governors of its central bank were sacked between 2019 and 2021.

A few days before the ambassadors' dismissal, the Turkish state was placed under surveillance by the international body Gafi, the Financial Action Task Force, for its failings in the fight against money laundering and the financing of terrorism.

Graylisting the Gafi could have consequences for foreign investment in Ankara, which would worsen Turkey's already very tense economic situation.

Foreign direct investment is already at its lowest.

$ 5.7 billion was invested in 2020, up from $ 19 billion in 2007.

It is difficult to play the great powers when you are isolated.

Turkey wants to be a great country, but it cannot be alone.

"

"It is a constant, whenever Turkey is in internal crisis, Erdogan is offensive internationally", portrayed Alican Tayla.

Turkish patriotic sentiment is extremely strong, and if the string is coarse, ganging the Turkish people against the outside can help avoid focusing on the internal crisis.

Too far this time?

The decision to dismiss an ambassador is however never trivial and remains an extremely rare event. So ten at once, among which seven represent allied countries within NATO, and a few days before the G20 (this Saturday, in Rome) ... To offend so many powerful is "daring". Alican Tayla confirms the risks, even if according to him, “this is the whole principle of Erdogan. He seeks to surprise and take the world protagonists by surprise. Turkey does not have much weight, so it is by surprise that it strikes ”.

As for the long-term consequences, “they are not part of Erdogan's software,” notes the expert.

The latter is looking for quick wins, without really measuring the impact of these decisions ”.

And the latter could have cost him dearly, "especially economically", supports Alican Tayla.

The already weak Turkish currency had already fallen heavily on Monday morning.

The G20 and Joe Biden in the viewfinder

The risks were too great and the consequences would have been far too great, even for Erdogan's impulsiveness. Also, the relaxation was quick and… unexpected. In a message on Twitter, most of the embassies concerned affirmed to act in "conformity with the Vienna convention and its article 41" which frames diplomatic relations and prohibits any interference in the internal affairs of the host country. These statements were "positively received" by the Turkish president, according to the official Anadolu news agency. And Erdogan to finally declare to give up expelling the ten ambassadors in his sights.

Sarah Sriri, “Analysis and Strategy” project manager at the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES), explains: “It was too risky a bet, even for Erdogan, and he himself backed down. He had too much to lose. The expert indicates in particular that the Turkish president had been planning for a long time to meet with Joe Biden during the G20. The opportunity, too good, would have been wasted in the event of a deep diplomatic crisis. The international calendar must have played a role in de-escalation. Between the G20 this Saturday and the COP26 this Sunday, the week has something to cherish the dreams of the Turkish leader: to find the greatness of the Ottoman Empire. However, “it is difficult to play the great powers when you are isolated. Turkey wants to be a great country, but it cannot be alone, ”explains the researcher.

And the first step in appeasing the West, claiming not to want to interfere in Turkey's internal affairs, was seen by Erdogan "as a way out, the opportunity to turn around without losing too much honor. », Supports Sarah Sriri.

Alican Tayla confirms: “The West did not want to add fuel to the fire because Turkey retains a strong strategic interest.

However, this shows the weakness of Erdogan, who established a showdown before giving up the first opportunity.

"

Our dossier on Erdogan

This Monday, Turkey therefore "avoided the worst diplomatic crisis in its recent history", according to Sarah Sriri, even if relations with the rest of the G20 may be polar this Saturday: "There is a climate of latent tension with NATO since the purchase of Russian missiles by Turkey.

This ambassadorial affair will not help the situation, but the country escaped the worst on Monday.

"And the researcher concludes:" Erdogan played a dangerous game but in the end he did not fool anyone.

He's an agitator, but he's gone too far this time, even by his standards.

"

World

Turkey: Erdogan orders the expulsion of the ambassadors mobilized for the release of the opponent Kavala

World

Turkey: Erdogan threatens to expel ten ambassadors whose countries have called for the release of an opponent

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  • Recep Tayyip Erdogan