Burma, still in chaos since the February coup, will be, Tuesday, October 26, at the center of a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), to which the head of the junta who runs the country has not been allowed to participate, as international pressure intensifies on the military regime.

The virtual meeting will kick off three days of meetings hosted by ASEAN, in which US President Joe Biden and the Chinese and Russian leaders are due to attend later in the week.

Burma will be at the top of the agenda for talks among leaders in the region on Tuesday.

The country has been in political turmoil since the military seized power last February and the bloody crackdown on dissent that followed.

Faced with calls to defuse the crisis, ASEAN, of which Burma is a member, drew up a roadmap aimed at restoring peace, but doubts were expressed about the junta's commitment to follow this plan.

His refusal to allow a special envoy to meet with ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi last week prompted Asean to exclude junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, who seized power in the coup from talks.

This forcible takeover ended the brief democratic experiment in Burma and Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi now faces a series of charges in a junta tribunal that could lead her to death. prison for many years.

The exclusion of Min Aung Hlaing has been denounced by the junta as a violation of ASEAN's policy of non-interference in the affairs of member states.

The group of ten Southeast Asian countries invited Chan Aye, director general of the junta-appointed foreign ministry, to replace Min Aung Hlaing, although it is uncertain whether the regime authorized to take part in the debates.

Asean divided

For Aaron Connelly, a Southeast Asia specialist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the decision to exclude the junta leader was "extremely significant".

"This is the most important sanction that ASEAN has ever imposed on a member state and it is a direct response to the non-compliance that we have seen on the part of the junta," he said in part of a debate Monday.

But observers believe the organization is unlikely to go any further, for example by suspending Burma, and they believe this week's meetings are unlikely to lead to decisions that could prompt the junta to change course.

While member states such as Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia have pushed for ASEAN to take action in response to the junta's takeover, other countries with more authoritarian governments have shown themselves. more discreet.

Other issues likely to be addressed at the summit include the South China Sea - where Beijing and several Southeast Asian countries have overlapping claims - and the pandemic.

This year's meetings are hosted by Brunei and are taking place online due to travel difficulties related to Covid-19.

After Tuesday's talks, leaders from Southeast Asia will be joined on Wednesday for an expanded summit, which is expected to include Joe Biden and leaders from the wider region.

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