KIEV -

After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, its military presence has grown in the northern Black Sea region.

This was met with repeated Ukrainian and European accusations and fears, which see this as a real threat to its security, and to the interests of regional and global states in the region.

Moscow justifies this presence for the same reasons as well, considering that the "expansionist intentions" of NATO in the territory of Ukraine and the Black Sea are a serious threat to the security of its borders and territories, including Crimea, which Ukraine and the West consider an occupied land.

Escalating tension between Russia, Ukraine and Western countries in the Black Sea (Agencies)

intense maneuvers

After Russia's annexation of Crimea, tension gradually increased in the Black Sea basin over the past years, and this was evident in the increase in the number and size of naval military maneuvers, whether Russian or Western Ukrainian joint.

This tension reached its peak last April, when Moscow mobilized huge numbers of troops, vehicles and ships on Ukraine’s land borders in the east, and the sea land in the south. Western fears.

Practically, the waters of this sea have not calmed down since then, as it witnessed the huge "Sea Breeze 2021" maneuvers, and the "Dive 2021" joint maneuvers between Ukraine and NATO, with the participation of thousands of soldiers and dozens of ships, in conjunction with several naval maneuvers launched by Russia in return.


Frequent accidents

The past years, months and weeks have witnessed repeated incidents in the Black Sea basin and the Sea of ​​Azov, the most prominent of which was Russia's interception of the British destroyer "Defender" last June.

The last of which was the "escorting" of two Russian fighters to two American bombers over the sea, according to what the Russian Defense Ministry announced a few days ago.

Not far away, the world remembers the uproar and fears that Russia had caused by the interception of 3 ships of the Ukrainian forces near the Kerch Strait in November 2018, and the capture of all 25 of its sailors.

Joint US-Ukrainian naval exercises in the Black Sea in February 2021 (Agencies)

Russian pool

Russia is facing accusations from Ukraine, Turkey, the United States, European countries and NATO, of seeking to turn the Black Sea into a private pool, especially after Moscow decided, last April, to close parts of the sea's waters and airspace to the movement of foreign ships and aircraft.

Ilya Kosa, an expert on international relations at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, says that Russia seeks to exclude the presence of large NATO forces near its borders, "regardless of the conformity of its means with international laws."

He added to Al Jazeera Net, "Practically, the sea is turning into a Russian sphere of influence, because the size of the fleet has doubled since 2014, and it has been supported by new submarines and frigates, equipped with long-range missiles."

In a related context, Mikhailo Honchar, head of the Center for Global Studies in Ukraine, believes that Russia is planning to blockade the Ukrainian coast and remove NATO from the Black Sea region.

"Its bet will be that the alliance will not seek to aggravate the situation with it, as it was before," said Honchar, referring to the inclinations of Western countries towards re-normalizing relations with Moscow.

NATO ships conduct military exercises with Ukrainian forces in the Black Sea (agencies).

Who has the power?

In light of this reality, many analysts compare the size of the Russian and Atlantic power in the Black Sea, and they almost unanimously agree that the power there is - at present - with Moscow.

Therefore, the American military analyst Mark Episkopos is not optimistic about the ability of the NATO countries to confront Russia in the Black Sea, in the event of a military clash between the two sides in the region.

Episkopos wrote in (The National Interest) that Russia has strengthened its fleet, especially at the Sevastopol base, "while NATO forces in the region cannot count on extensive local support," noting that Ukraine, Romania and Georgia could allow NATO ships to reach their ports, but they lack the naval capabilities necessary to provide Significant military contributions.


Sea Security Alliances

It seems that the countries bordering the Black Sea are striving to find a balance, or to turn the power equation in their favor in the future, depending on the inter-partnership, or with NATO.

Ukraine, for example, has agreed, with Turkey, Georgia and Moldova, to conduct joint naval exercises, and the importance of cooperation to ensure the security of the Black Sea region.

It is concerned more than others in this matter, and NATO has repeatedly called for expanding the deployment of its forces in the Black Sea, and Kiev intends to build two naval military bases, modernize and increase the size of its fleet, and develop "Neptune" missiles aimed at striking naval targets.

Perhaps the last episode in this context was the visit of US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to Georgia, Ukraine and Romania, before attending the NATO Ministers Summit in Brussels.

"Austin is determined to reassure Kiev and Tbilisi that the path to the alliance is open to them, as well as to clarify how relations with allies in the Black Sea region will be built," says Ksenia Loginova, a writer for the Russian newspaper "Izvestia".

"NATO is constantly discussing strengthening security in the Black Sea region, and a special focus is being placed on developing relations with Tbilisi and Kiev," she added.


Borders and gas

Although the mutual concerns and accusations revolve mainly around border and territorial security, the economic aspect is present among the list of factors affecting the Black Sea tensions as well.

Economic analyst Andrey Novak says that the energy crisis is evidence that Russia has a monopoly on the gas market in Europe, and wants its new supply line, "Nord Stream 2", to be the only European lifeline, excluding the role of Ukrainian transport networks.

He continues to Al Jazeera Net, "It will not have this if competitors appear in this profitable market, including Turkey, which is exploring for gas and is interested in using and exporting it independently in the future, as well as Qatar and other producing and exporting countries that need shorter and low-cost export routes to find competitive prices."

Novak concludes that Russia's control over Syria, and large parts of the Black Sea, means that it cuts off the optimal route for other exporters, or may obstruct it, "not to mention the huge economic benefits, as a result of controlling the commercial traffic in the northern Black Sea region."