The simmering sectarian conflict impedes the solution of intractable problems
The recent confrontations in Lebanon deepen the crisis in a country on the edge of the abyss
Hezbollah supporters demonstrated in support of Nasrallah's demand to dismiss Judge Bitar.
Reuters
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The recent appointment of a new prime minister in Lebanon, after more than a year of political wrangling, has brought at least a small glimmer of hope to a country on its knees.
Lebanon suffers from a serious financial collapse, the consequences of a massive chemical explosion, a chronic shortage of electricity and the absence of a government with the power to take action.
Then came armed confrontations, last week, between supporters of Hezbollah and the Christian Lebanese Forces Party, and any hope of a transformation evaporated, as Lebanon seemed to descend into a new and perhaps deeper crisis.
No one expects an outright civil war of the kind that devastated Lebanon between 1975 and 1990.
Iran-backed Hezbollah is the most powerful political and military force in the country, and the only faction that has a well-armed militia, and huge stockpiles of weapons make it more powerful, even than the Lebanese army.
But the escalation has fueled fears that the simmering civil and sectarian conflict will delay indefinitely solutions to many of the other problems Lebanon faces, from the lack of fuel for power stations across the country, to the devaluation of the currency that has destroyed the purchasing power of its citizens, who were One day they are relatively prosperous.
The streets are quiet now, but tensions persist, and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah - who led the funerals of two militia members, among the six killed in Thursday's clash - vowed that their blood was not shed "in vain", hinting at revenge, according to Tire. It spread on social media. One of the dead was a fighter from the party, and he fought with the militia in Syria in support of the government of Bashar al-Assad.
The Lebanese Forces accused Hezbollah of seeking to impose its will on the entire country, including Christians, and warned that it would resist any attempts by Shiite militia followers to enter Christian areas. The gunfight brings back painful memories of Lebanon's civil war.
A woman named (Souad), said that supporters of the "Lebanese Forces" are now patrolling Christian neighborhoods in the vicinity of the clash, and she lives in a Christian neighborhood in Tayouneh, where violence erupted, and asked that her full name not be used for fear of reprisals, and she said about the supporters of the "Lebanese Forces". "They are ready and ready for any attempt to invade the area from outside. They are carrying sticks, not weapons, and the guns are hidden."
direct motive
The immediate impetus for this latest crisis was a call made, earlier this week, by Nasrallah, for the dismissal of the judge responsible for the investigation into the explosion that killed more than 200 people in the port of Beirut last year, Tariq Bitar.
During a march organized by armed supporters of the party and its Shiite ally, the Amal Movement, to support Nasrallah's demand, at least one sniper opened fire when the demonstrators approached a Christian neighborhood, and this led to a barrage of fire in response from the demonstrators, who then sought to storm the neighborhoods Christian close.
The Lebanese Forces, a former civil war faction that is now a political party, denies Hezbollah accusations that it was responsible for the sniper fire, but the forces have also said that Christians have a right to defend themselves against incursions into Christian areas.
However, the stakes are far greater than the fate of a single judge.
The country is now divided between Christians who support the continuation of the judge's investigations, and Shiites who support Hezbollah's calls for his dismissal, and the confrontation touches the sectarian fault lines that intersect with the streets, neighborhoods, and the government.
"A red line has been drawn between the Christian regions and other regions, and if all parties do not try to calm down, this will not work well," said Khaldoun Al-Sharif, a Lebanese political analyst. "At any moment, a clash could occur in any mixed region."
He said that even if the violence is contained, the stage is now set for a potentially prolonged period of political paralysis, and Hezbollah is insisting on its position, while President Michel Aoun, a Christian, and the new Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, a Sunni Muslim, stand for On the side of (Judge) Bitar, and without a compromise, the government will not be able to agree on the necessary steps to lift Lebanon out of its misery, including the political and economic reforms required by the International Monetary Fund to release much-needed emergency financing.
The presenter of the "Lebanese Politics" program, Nizar Hassan, said that the alternative scenario is for the president and prime minister to acquiesce in Hezbollah's calls to dismiss Bitar, but this comes at a special price.
The government will likely lose the support of the United States and other Western allies, who insisted on a transparent investigation into the port explosion, and whose support would be vital if there was an IMF bailout.
Negotiation game
"You can say that what we saw in Lebanon is part of Iran's regional game, to increase pressure on the international community to surrender, and Iran is playing the game of negotiation throughout the region on the entire chessboard," Hassan said.
In the Tayouneh area, where the violence erupted, a group of four friends of different faiths drank tea together, joked about each other's sects, and said they hoped the clashes would end. One of the men, all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of their security, said: "This is an area Sensitive, it is Christian of course, but it is full of Muslims.” He continued, “Everyone lives side by side.”
“It was blowing dust,” said another whose home was destroyed by fire during the violence, but added that he has since packed two bags full of necessities, such as his identity documents, and put them at the door, just in case more fighting broke out again and he had to flee.
• The direct motive for this latest crisis was a call made, earlier this week, by the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, to dismiss the judge responsible for investigating the explosion that killed more than 200 people in Beirut port last year, Tariq Bitar.
political corruption
Tariq Bitar is the second judge charged with investigating the explosion in the port of Beirut. During his investigation, the first judge, Fadi Sawan, focused on a question that caught the attention of Lebanese public opinion: who is responsible for allowing 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate to be stored randomly in a warehouse in the port, along with fireworks And materials to dilute the paint on the edge of a crowded city?
After trying to question former ministers and powerful political leaders, Sawan was removed and replaced by Judge Bitar, but the latter also struggled to penetrate the culture of corruption and political influence in Lebanon, which prevented the law from holding anyone accountable for violations that deserve follow-up and punishment. Government documents seen by The Washington Post earlier this year showed that officials were well aware of the dangers posed by the vast chemical stockpile long before last year. The documents revealed that responsibility for ammonium nitrate passed, over the years, between various government and private agencies, including the Ministry of Public Works and Transportation, the judiciary, the army, and even the Special Explosives Company.
Bitar faced a violent reaction after he issued, last week, an arrest warrant for the former Minister of Finance, Ali Hassan Khalil, a member of the "Amal" movement.
In an interview on the same day, Khalil said, "I am proud to be part of a political movement, and I am a soldier in the Amal movement."
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