The divisions of the ruling coalition are ravaging the political scene in Sudan.. What is the next scenario?

KHARTOUM

The morning of the Sudanese capital was not much different from other days at the beginning of the week. The same congestion that surrounded its roads was the master of the situation, even if the sit-in protesters were erected tents near the presidential palace, giving the surrounding streets double suffocation, reflecting, in one way or another, the severe tension surrounding the political situation. complex in this country.

A strong division engulfed the Alliance for Freedom and Change - the ruling coalition - which turned into two currents, one of which supports the military in power, while the other opposes it, which is strengthening, according to its leaders, on the street, which was the major factor in overthrowing the rule of President Omar al-Bashir two years ago.

The dispute between the two parts of freedom and change revolves around the structuring of the coalition, with some of the signatories to the peace agreement - the Darfur armed movements and the central and northern tracks - believing in the dominance of specific forces over decision-making centers, which requires restructuring and expanding participation in the transitional government organs to include the 79 forces that signed the first document of freedom and change Without neglecting other bodies that did not sign, but they contributed to the struggle and revolution against the previous regime.

On the other hand, the leaders of the Central Council for Freedom and Change talk about their readiness to conduct reviews of organizational issues in the alliance, which culminated in the restructuring and signing of a political pact last September after the return of the National Umma Party to the system.

But this did not satisfy the rejectionist group, which preferred to move away and sign another charter last Saturday, based on the demand for the dissolution of the existing government and the expansion of the base of participation in all organs, which the second group views with suspicion as leading to a disruption of the balance of power in the event the Legislative Council is formed with the alignment of forces supporting the military and perhaps pro-military. to the previous system.

sharp split

Amid these conflicting visions, Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok describes what the Sudanese arena is going through as the most serious political crisis that threatens the transitional period, and even portends a dire mortal.

Hamdok said in a televised speech on Friday night that the last coup attempt is the door through which the strife entered, so all the hidden differences and accusations from all parties came out of its hiding place, and he continues, "This is how we are about to put the fate of our country, our people and our revolution in the wind," before talking about a road map. to solve the complex crisis.

But Hamdok's statements and his desperate attempts to prevent the government from collapsing under the weight of the deepening disputes fell on deaf ears. Before that, he put forward the "National Crisis and Transition Issues - The Way Forward" initiative without reaching his goal.

Hamdok presented a road map based on de-escalation and a call for dialogue (Al-Jazeera)

Hours after the end of the procession of thousands of supporters of the dissident wing of the ruling coalition that raised the slogans of national consensus, the Sudanese scene seemed strongly divided over these developments, in light of the leaders of the Central Council of the ruling coalition supporting a call initiated by the Communist Party - opposing the authority - to go out in processions next Thursday.

With an open sit-in for the dissident current backed by the military in power near the presidential palace, it seemed that the quarrelsome forces would bet on the popular mobilization to win the “street versus street” battle for whoever can recruit the largest number of Sudanese.

creeping inversion

The Alliance for Freedom and Change, accused of kidnapping the government, does not hesitate to accuse military and civilian leaders of inflaming the situation in the political arena, as the delegated leadership committee said after a meeting it held on Friday to assess the political situation that "the current crisis is behind limited military and civilian leaders that aim to abort all the achievements of the glorious December revolution." ".

She pointed out that the crisis comes against the backdrop of the failure of its predecessors, attempts to starve the people and bring them to their knees, to bring about security chaos, and to close ports and roads, in reference to the closure of the Al-Nazir Muhammad Ahmed Turk group to the east of the country to pressure towards dissolving the government, which are the same demands that the military and their supporters advocate.

In the face of intense calls and pressures to change the government, the coalition is unable to resist them, saying in its statement, "We announce our clear position that dissolving the government is a decision that belongs to freedom and change, and in consultation with the Prime Minister and the forces of the revolution, and it will not come as a result of superior dictates and conspiracies from the remnants."

Rather, the committee considered that the attempt to create a constitutional crisis on the pretext of the existence of more than one body for freedom and change does not stand on two legs, and that the same scheme was defeated by the alignment of the Central Council, the Revolutionary Front and the National Umma Party under the banner of the unified body for freedom and change.

She said that she welcomes everyone who was part of freedom and change and came out of a circumstance, pledging to open up to all the forces of revolution and change to defeat the "creeping coup", as she described it.

There is no way but to dissolve the government

However, Nour Al-Daim Taha, the media official of the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Minni Arko Minawi, rejects any solutions except for dissolving the government, as stipulated in the constitutional document, and the formation of an independent, harmonious and homogeneous government of competencies to complete the transitional phase, reform the security services, and form commissions, primarily the Elections Commission and the Constitution-making Commission.

Taha assures Al Jazeera Net that these tasks can only be performed by an independent and efficient government, and indicates that among their demands signed in the Charter of National Accord is the unity of the forces of freedom and change through the convening of the founding conference of the alliance, as well as ending the phenomenon of exclusion among the political forces, which he said are lead to the disintegration of the country.

Protesters in front of the Republican Palace demand the dissolution of the government and the formation of a government of competencies (Anatolia)

He also points to the need to work on the unity of Sudan by restoring its east, which he said is now out of control and far from managing the transitional period, and the solution to that lies - according to the media official - in agreeing on a highly efficient government.

He says, "We call for a broad-based government in which everyone participates, except for the National Congress," before adding, "We demand that Hamdok take a decision because the current government is illegal and violates the constitutional document that talks about an independent government of competencies, while the list now is a quota between Parties that have caused conflict and aggravation of the situation.

The spokesman expressed his confidence that there is no way out of the current situation except by responding to these calls, especially in light of the closure facing the country in the east coupled with the sit-in in Khartoum, where everyone raises the same demands, leaving the government no room to deal without complying with it.

The most correct scenario

The current tensions are affecting the already fragile transitional period, and are putting the country in the face of a test that pushes towards changing the entire political scene, according to Professor of Political Science at Al-Neelain University, Musab Muhammad Ali.

And Muhammad Ali, in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, indicates that the Saturday parade dedicated the division by mobilizing many Sudanese social components that could have an impact by pressing the other side to make concessions that the military could benefit from in extending the grip on the presidency.

The spokesman goes that this development could affect the transition of the presidency to civilians next November when divisions escalate between the two parties after the mobilization of October 21, and this puts the military forces in Sudan in front of a situation under which they may declare a state of public emergency and new procedures Whereby the existing transitional government institutions are abolished.

The professor of political science expects to remedy this division through dialogue, to reach an agreement that prevents the control of a faction and making concessions from the two parties, which is the most likely scenario - he says - in addition to the formation of an equitable government and participation in all levels of power, and does not rule out the hypothesis of the continuation of the state of division and the dissolution of the government and the formation of another headed by Abdullah Hamdouk.