Last year, the Kremlin cracked down on the opposition to prevent it from winning elections to the State Duma (parliament) or organizing mass protests.
With parliamentary elections ending in September, the Russian government continues its pressure campaign on major tech companies.
According to a report in the "worldview.stratfor" website, major technology companies based in the United States have become the focus of the campaign led by the Russian government, such as Google, Apple, Facebook and Twitter and Amazon, as well as other small technology companies.
The American website pointed out that independent Russian media and political activists rely on these platforms to spread their message and demand the establishment of democratic rule in Russia, so the regime considers them a threat.
Moscow is creating a domestic quasi-monopolistic environment similar to that of China or the United States, where technology companies and communication platforms monopolize domestic markets.
To achieve this goal, the Kremlin seeks to weaken foreign technology companies and allow their peers to enjoy less domestic competition, while concentrating additional resources to help them expand as instruments of Russian influence.
The digital crackdown reached its climax on the eve of last month's Duma elections, when Apple and Google bowed to the Kremlin's demands and removed the app of opposition leader Alexei Navalny from their app stores, after threatening their employees in Russia with criminal prosecution.
In March, authorities slowed Twitter in response to the platform's alleged failure to remove banned content, and other platforms threatened to take similar measures up to a ban in the event of non-compliance.
targeting
After the designation of organizations linked to the opposition leader as terrorist, and with the parliamentary elections approaching in September, the pace of regulatory actions and threats against major technology companies accelerated, as additional fines were imposed for not deleting content and storing data in Russia, on the grounds that failure to delete content amounted to election interference. .
The "World View Stratfor" explained that the Kremlin's targeting of major American technology companies is driven by its different vision of managing cybersecurity compared to the United States.
The latest National Security Strategy reflects Moscow's awareness of an ever wider range of threats, including concerns about the "Westernization" of the country's political, ideological and cultural development.
In order to bolster its influence in US cyber conversations, the Russian government has drawn a dubious equation between its failure to pursue "ransomware" groups targeting the United States and its government's failure to stop tech giants from allegedly interfering in Russia's internal affairs.
The next stage of Russia's crackdown on major tech companies
Likely first scenario
The US website is likely that the Kremlin will implement a constant pressure campaign based on subjugating major technology companies and supporting the development of local services to reduce these companies' market share and influence, instead of banning their services.
The purpose of this approach is to avoid the domestic reactions that accompany the withholding of popular resources in the United States, in exchange for ensuring the continued achievement of the Kremlin's goals.
For years, Moscow has been unable to rein in American companies for two main reasons: First, Moscow lacks the technical capabilities to block content in a targeted manner, as evidenced by the failed ban of the Telegram application that began in April 2018 before undoing That is in June 2020.
The second reason is the lack of local alternatives for many of the services provided by these companies, and perhaps this is what discourages the Kremlin from banning them completely until 2024 and perhaps for a longer period, in light of the millions of Russians and companies continuing to rely on them.
The second scenario is less likely
The least likely scenario is an escalation before the 2024 presidential election. In that case, the Kremlin might give lawmakers the green light to impose the harshest penalties on tech companies to subdue or disrupt their services, or impose restrictions on them to prevent any disruptions before the elections.
Regardless of whether President Vladimir Putin aspires to another six-year term or appoint a successor, disillusionment with the political system is likely to increase widely in the coming years.
Accordingly, the authorities may tighten control over the Internet and the activities of foreign technology companies to prevent mass protests.
Although domestic peers for most critical services may not be fully ready by then, Moscow may see a crackdown on big tech companies necessary and that domestic peers have made sufficient progress.
The draft budget indicates that Russia seeks to strengthen the security and law enforcement capabilities of its Internet infrastructure by 2024. Bidding for new information control systems shows that the authorities' abilities to detect violations of the law will be more advanced by then, giving the government more reason to enact restrictive measures on major technology companies.
Scenario 3 is unlikely
This scenario is unlikely, and it is assumed that the policy of brinkmanship and miscalculation from Moscow will lead major media and technology companies to stop or reduce their operations in the country, or the Kremlin will stop the services of a company that it was not ready to replace before 2024.
However, it is likely that the authorities will continue to practice a policy of discrimination.
And since Moscow has little incentive to offer foreign technology companies other than to allow their operations in the country to continue, Moscow's primary tactic is to issue sanctions, which is a very risky tactic.
It is in this scenario in particular, and to a lesser extent within the previous two scenarios, that a major shift in the Kremlin's policies toward Western companies may occur.
This board would be more reluctant to take strong action against Google, Apple or Microsoft because their services are difficult to replace, and the ban could trigger a backlash in the country.
In contrast, Facebook and Twitter products are likely to face harsher punitive measures in case of non-compliance, as they have no representative offices in Russia, and Moscow believes that local alternatives are more available.
Several small US-based companies have come under pressure from the Russian authorities, including Booking.com, Pinterest, Tumblr and Snap. Snapchat and Slack.
Western tech companies could face a similar fate to the LinkedIn platform, which has been completely banned in Russia since 2016 for not storing citizen data used in the country, a policy that could be selectively applied to any other tech company or any communication platform, according to the report. Moscow desire.
More stress
Regardless of the scenario that ultimately materializes, the ongoing Russian campaign against American technology and media companies is likely to lead to more tension in bilateral relations in the coming years.
It is likely that the administration of President Joe Biden and Congress, the Americans, will face increasing political pressure to participate more in supporting American technology companies so as not to succumb to the attempts of "authoritarian" regimes to censor opposition political discourse.
The US government has refused to comment directly on Russia's actions against big tech companies, in an effort to avoid further tension and tougher action, but the continuation of the digital campaign in Moscow will force the US government to eventually respond publicly and raise the issue in bilateral talks with Moscow.
At a time when the US government tends to respond to the demands of the Russian authorities, because that is better than the absence of any of the major technology companies in Russia, it is likely - according to “World View Stratfor” - that the policy of restraint will not continue indefinitely, in light of the increasing pressure on companies.
The decline in the presence of technology companies in Russia will lead to the erosion of the soft power of the United States.