"Catastrophically low gas reserves": how Ukraine plans to spend the heating season

The head of the board of Naftogaz Ukrainy, Yuriy Vitrenko, said that the company has enough energy resources to meet the country's needs.

He also ruled out the likelihood of an increase in gas prices, promising that the tariff will remain at the same level.

“I want to reassure everyone and say responsibly that Naftogaz, a national company, has enough gas to meet all the needs of the population.

And we, selling gas at a price of 7.42 (hryvnia per cubic meter. -

) for the needs of the population, are doing so that the price of gas for the needs of the population will not rise this winter, "Vitrenko said on the Svoboda Slova program on TV channel "Ukraine 24".

At the same time, the head of the All-Ukrainian Energy Assembly, the former Minister of Fuel and Energy of Ukraine, Ivan Plachkov, does not share such optimism. 

According to him, Ukraine, as in the last heating season, will need an additional 130 billion cubic meters of gas.

At the same time, according to Plachkov, in the current situation Kiev will be able to get only 110 billion cubic meters from the storage facilities.

In this regard, the ex-minister suggested that Naftogaz would have to "take away from transit" the missing volume.

“Shall we take from transit? .. What will we explain to people?

We will either take from the pipe (meaning gas that is transported to Europe through the country's GTS. -

), or we must buy from Slovakia, "Plachkov said.

However, if Naftogaz decides to take such a step, then, as the ex-minister predicts, Russia may suspend the transportation of blue fuel through the GTS or significantly reduce the volume of pumping.

Commenting on Plachkov's words, Vitrenko promised that Naftogaz would not take away the fuel intended for European consumers.

Plachkov also warned that a shortage of gas will inevitably lead to a shortage of electricity.

According to Ivan Plachkov, the only option for the normal passage of the heating season is to purchase coal for the "state reserve".

At the same time, he doubted the ability of the Ukrzaliznytsia company to transport the required volume of coal due to the insufficient number of wagons.

“This is a set of organizational issues that need to be resolved online every day, starting today,” Plachkov said.

The ex-minister called the situation for Ukraine "very difficult" and therefore, according to him, in Vitrenko's place it is not necessary to calm people down.

The price of expectations

The heating season in Ukraine traditionally begins in mid-October.

Heat is supplied to the homes of Ukrainians depending on weather conditions and by order of local authorities.

It should be noted that on the eve, in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine, Vitrenko said that Naftogaz is considering different scenarios for the development of the situation in the heating season 2021-2022.

“We simulate different scenarios: how much gas is in the underground (underground gas storage facilities, UGS -

), when it can be lifted, and when there is limited capacity for lifting;

what kind of production we have, what are the restrictions, how much gas can be taken directly from the pipe, how much to supply, etc. We are planning how to pass this heating season, in particular, to meet the gas needs for all our customers, ”Vitrenko said.

• Head of the Board of Naftogaz Ukrainy Yuriy Vitrenko

• AP

• © Efrem Lukatsky

The worst development of events, according to the head of the Naftogaz board, is the launch of Nord Stream 2 and the termination of transit through the Ukrainian gas transportation system.

Vitrenko considered such a scenario likely due to disputes with Gazprom / According to him, the Russian corporation prohibits European companies from buying gas on the border between Russia and Ukraine, which Kiev opposes.

As Alexander Frolov, deputy general director of the Institute of National Energy, noted in an interview with RT, in this case Vitrenko is trying to artificially link the launch of Nord Stream 2, the transit situation and the provision of the heating season in Ukraine.

“These are things that have nothing to do with each other.

Vitrenko's reasoning is just straw that Naftogaz and the entire leadership of Ukraine wants to spread in order to justify the failure of preparations for the heating season.

As soon as SP-2 is launched, the Kiev authorities can tell people that they are freezing because Russia is to blame, ”Frolov explained.

In his opinion, the problems that Ukraine is experiencing on the eve of the heating season are primarily caused by the "stupid policy" of the country's leadership and Vitrenko's own unprofessionalism in matters of energy supply.

“It is the head of Naftogaz that is responsible for pumping insufficient fuel into underground gas storage facilities (UGS).

Vitrenko, as an avid accountant, expected gas prices to fall, but prices on European spot platforms soared, ”Frolov says.

On October 13, during the plenary session of the Russian Energy Week international forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that there is no exact information on the volume of gas in Ukraine's UGS facilities, but there are approximately 18 billion cubic meters of gas there.

Vitrenko, in turn, denied these data, but at the same time did not provide a figure that was reliable from his point of view.

As Frolov suggests, the head of Naftogaz could have taken into account the so-called "buffer" gas, which, according to technical regulations, is prohibited from being pumped out of the UGS facility.

For this reason, in Russia, for example, the volume of such fuel is not included in the current statistics.

Also at the forum, Vladimir Putin drew attention to the fact that a significant amount of fuel in Ukrainian UGS facilities "belongs not to Ukrainian operators, but to European and private, others."

Despite this, according to the Russian leader, "some irresponsible politicians in Ukraine are talking about the need to nationalize him."

“And what are we seeing now?

A gradual pumping out of underground gas storage facilities in Ukraine by private operators, including foreign ones, has begun, ”Putin said.

The President of the Russian Federation stressed that Moscow is ready to "deliver even more", but for this, applications must be received. 

• Station of the Ukrainian GTS

• Reuters

• © Gleb Garanich

“What Vitrenko says contradicts common sense.

In my opinion, he is only trying to evade responsibility.

Meanwhile, all knowledgeable people are well aware that Ukraine has catastrophically low gas reserves.

The country will not survive the heating season with them, ”Frolov said.

Taking into account the difficult situation in the last heating season in Ukraine, the expert admits the possibility of large-scale interruptions in heat and electricity, as well as accidents at the facilities of the energy infrastructure of Ukraine.

Most likely, as the analyst predicts, the republic will have to buy electricity from the Russian Federation and Belarus and pump out gas intended for Europe.

“Ukraine can somehow hold out in the heating season, if several factors coincide at once.

These are warm January, February and March - during these months gas reserves are always minimal - and a significant drop in exchange prices for coal and gas, which is also unlikely, "Frolov says.

"Hard times"

Alexander Frolov is confident that the Ukrainian authorities will not keep tariffs at the current level amid the global gas price rally.

“After the coup d'état, Ukraine is officially guided by the level of prices on the EU gas exchanges.

This state of affairs plays into the hands of Naftogaz, corrupt officials in the business elite and the authorities who hide behind slogans about European integration, "Frolov stressed.

In a commentary on RT, Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics of the Moscow State Pedagogical University, also noted that during the heating season, Ukraine cannot avoid an internal rise in prices for blue fuel.

“According to forecasts, a severe winter is ahead, therefore, Ukrainian consumers will face difficult times and a significant increase in gas prices.

Such a development of events can be avoided, but for this Kiev needs to conclude a contract with Russia for the direct supply of gas, "Shapovalov believes.

In his opinion, the coming winter will be a difficult test for the incumbent president.

Shapovalov does not exclude the possibility that mass protests may take place in the republic, which will create difficulties for Zelensky as a politician.

“The President does not speak directly, but makes it clear that he is going for a second term, although at best he will hold on to the chair until the end of the first.

He did not fulfill a single pre-election promise, disillusionment is growing in society, and huge difficulties associated with the heating season will soon be superimposed on all this, ”Shapovalov argues.

From the point of view of a political scientist, the upcoming problems with heating and electricity once again confirm the lack of personnel in Zelensky's team who are capable of making competent decisions in the field of public administration.  

“There was not a single strong politician and professional in any field around Zelensky.

And the repressive course of the Ukrainian leader shows that he is a newcomer to politics with dictatorial manners.

I think that the current heating season will lead to a serious decrease in the rating and finally bury his political ambitions, ”Shapovalov predicts.