Translation summary:

Britain, the United States and Australia shook the world with the news of the establishment of the "Ocos" alliance and the nuclear submarine deal, but the alliance is much larger and far from a mere nuclear deal, and it will reshape the technological, military and strategic features of the conflict with China in the Pacific. How will that happen?

This is what Arzan Tarapor talks about in his article published in the East Asia Forum.

Translation text:

The nuclear submarine deal granted to Australia attracted the world's attention more than any other details of the announcement of "AUKUS", the tripartite alliance between the United States, Britain and Australia, as the eight submarines will extend the range of the Australian submarine fleet, and increase its destructive power and its ability to confront significantly, It also breaks the barrier of aversion to nuclear power in Australia, and demonstrates the commitment of the United States and Britain to the ongoing strategic competition in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

But despite the seriousness that Okos shows with regard to naval power, it shows more seriousness with regard to the issue of alliances, as the tripartite initiative seeks to expand the structure of the existing alliance, known as the Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance (between the United States, Britain, Australia, Canada and New Zealand);

It includes the fields of industry and the latest military technology globally.

The Biden administration has pledged to prioritize strategic competition with China and revive Washington's traditional alliances, and has made progress in this regard, albeit gradually.

In addition to the visits of high-level delegations, Biden's most prominent initiative came when he announced the promotion of the "Quartet" (which includes Australia, India, Japan and the United States) to be held at the level of presidential summits from now on.

long term goals

However, Okus is a different paradigm shift, as the submarine deal alone will cement the presence of the United States and Britain in the region for decades to come. Even more ambitious, Okus seeks to win the ongoing technology race with China by honing resources and integrating supply lines related to industries and sciences. With military ties, OCOs' goals become long-term and multifaceted, as it is a transnational project that is racing to become a leader in the fields of artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and cyber technology.

This type of technology integration is a radical idea, as it has been the practice of nations to share their military technology, even though some technologies are more valuable than others. For example, nuclear technology has a special status, the United States only shared its nuclear submarine technology with Britain at the height of the Cold War, but the competition with China is stirring Washington strongly now, and then pushing it to share that technology with one other country for the first time Decades ago: Australia.

The technology that is at the heart of the Okos agreement is at the forefront of scientific research in the world and can offer unprecedented advantages in terms of military power, and it is likely that the submarine project will play the role of the catalyst for this new cooperation. It is not clear how much nuclear propulsion technology for submarines the United States will share with Australia, but the Australian military community will get the most advanced technological features of these submarines, including sensors, tracking and evading mechanisms of hostile forces, and data analysis systems designed to monitor maritime ranges.

What makes Britain and Australia the closest technology partners to Washington?

First, they are both members of the Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance, which over decades has developed joint systems, organizations, and processes for sharing intelligence data and responsibilities for collecting it.

Second, and no less important if not as tangible, the alliance has cultivated mutual trust and a tradition of cooperation, including combating terrorism and fighting the Iraq and Afghanistan wars over the past two decades. Compared to the other Five Eyes members, Canada and New Zealand, Britain and Australia are the most committed to preserving on a strategic vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific.

exclusion of France

The radical integration that Okos seeks was only possible between the Five Eyes partners; Because Okos will work on highly sensitive intelligence-related technologies, only Washington's closest intelligence ally can entrust it. Okos' stated technology priorities, namely artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and cybersecurity, are the technology areas that constitute the only emerging global intelligence potential.

This is likely also the reason for the exclusion of France from the group, which led to the outbreak of a disturbing diplomatic crisis, despite its compatible interests with Washington and London in the region, and despite its military strength and activity, France does not share the same systems and relations that make up the Five Eyes Alliance. In the coming years, "Ocos" will gain increasing regional acceptance and effectiveness if it succeeds in reaching a mechanism to share its most important military data and technologies with its partners, including France and other countries in the region.

"Ocos" may represent the closest integration between allies we have seen before, but it will not be able to achieve everything, and it will not replace other regional and international formations. The region needs a new security structure, but unlike the alliance umbrellas known in the Cold War, such as NATO, This new structure will consist of many overlapping formations, each with different strengths and tasks. As such, Okos' technology-sharing mission remains limited in importance.

There are several formations that will then work to achieve different goals. The Quartet will remain important for coordinating the strategic policies of China's most prominent regional competitors (India, Japan, and Australia), and for presenting a common vision on the regional system as those competing forces aspire to it. As the Indian government recently announced, "Ocos" is not considered a competitor or obstruction of the Quartet, and although France and India will not be able to acquire full membership in "Ocos", their roles remain important for the United States, Britain and Australia in a way that "Ocos" alone will not be able to play. In particular, both of them have significant military power, a heavy network of influence, and valuable geographical advantages (France has islands in the Indo-Pacific), and they are already involved in close partnerships with Australia.

Okos members will need to make a major effort to mend relations with France to benefit from the broad partnership with it in the midst of competition with China, but not all regional challenges require such broad and inclusive partnerships.

The goals of "Ocos" are radical, and we have not seen them before in the most solid American alliances, and of course we have not seen them before in that region of the world, and such an alliance has become possible only because the initiative came on a small and exclusive scale between the United States, Britain and Australia alone.

———————————————————————–

This article is translated from the East Asia Forum and does not necessarily represent the Meydan website.

Translation: Nour Khairy.