The Iraqi government has done a lot to prevent the parliamentary elections from being overshadowed by violence and terror from the "Islamic State".

The borders between the provinces were closed, as were the external borders and the airports.

The population was called upon to take to the streets only to vote.

Their enthusiasm is just as limited as the hope that the election will usher in a change for the better.

People are disillusioned and frustrated by the demands of everyday life, the constant power cuts, unemployment, and corruption.

Christoph Ehrhardt

Correspondent for the Arab countries based in Beirut.

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"We promised people we would hold elections and we kept our promise," Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi said on state television.

“My only request is to vote and keep your promise.

Your voices are precious. ”The words of Grand Ayatollah Ali al Sistani, by far the most influential religious scholar in the country, whose appeals are the command of many Shiites in Iraq, are likely to have had more impact.

Despite all the shortcomings, this remains "the best way to achieve a peaceful future and avoid the risk of chaos and political blockade," it said in a statement.

Activists receive death threats

But reluctance and distrust are huge. The election campaign was accompanied by allegations of buying votes. And the promise of an early election was pretty much the only thing Kadhimi could keep. Observers in Baghdad already consider it a success if participation in the previous election is achieved. At the time, this was given at a good 44 percent, which in Baghdad is considered an optimistic interpretation of the numbers. A young artist from the capital utters a sentence that can be heard again and again in one way or another: “Nothing will change anyway.” For him, the election, for which 3200 candidates are running, is little more than a democratic one Facade.

His words are an expression of bitter irony, because he was an activist of the protest movement of October 2019 that won this election on the street. The protest movement wants to abolish the political system in which posts are not distributed according to competence, but along denominational lines to representatives of the various population groups - which fuels egoism and corruption.

The protest movement has made great sacrifices: demonstrators were deliberately struck down by snipers, spokesmen kidnapped, mistreated or murdered. Those who carry on receive death threats. Shiite militias who are loyal to the Iranian regime are suspected to be behind it. Containing them was one of the promises that Kadhimi could not keep. Now the October Movement is not only tired and intimidated, but also at odds. One part wants to work towards change within the system, another calls for a boycott. The movement also lacks two crucial things: weapons and, most importantly, money.

So there are doubts that the innovations in the electoral law, which favor the large number of independent candidates, will ultimately change something in the political realities. On the one hand, the new faces could benefit from people's weariness. But it is also an open secret in Baghdad who benefits from a low turnout: the established forces who have far less difficulty in mobilizing their own clientele. This includes, for example, the movement of the Shiite preacher Muqtada al Sadr, who stages himself as a nationalist tribune. Or the camp of unfaithful forces, which also includes the political offshoots of several Shiite militias that were sent into the race. Initial reports from the polling stations on Sunday indicated this.

The sadrists have already declared themselves kingmakers, and it is generally accepted that they will have an important say in the end, if they do not even have the last word.

Likewise, it is expected that the election will be followed by a long haggling, in which the establishment once again divides posts among itself.

And at the end of which Kadhimi himself or a Kadhimi clone will be head of government: a poor compromise candidate who is also acceptable to the relevant foreign powers - America and Iran.