Zero-sum competition between two superpowers
A cold war between the United States and China is not inevitable
Military confrontation is not in the interest of either side.
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The competition between the two countries will take an economic character.
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The Cold War between America and the Soviet Union has an ideological character.
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Many experts and commentators see the United States and China as heading toward, or already engaging in, a Cold War. In their analysis, the term applies to the bipolar strategic competition between the two nuclear superpowers and their ideologies. The Cold War scenario will be repeated between the United States and the Soviet Union, as a competition for global sovereignty, which will oblige other countries to choose a side between democracy and authoritarianism. But the war will remain "cold" because neither side seeks direct military confrontation or invasion. In fact, the Cold War between the United States and China will break out mainly in the economic, technological and political spheres.
Yet other observers argue, with equal confidence, that there will be no cold war between America and China, because Washington and Beijing are not actually engaged in an ideological struggle for global supremacy.
China does not seek world domination or the destruction of American capitalism and the way of life.
Nor will the rest of the world divide itself into American and Chinese camps.
The former US ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, said that comparing the competition between the United States and China to the Cold War between America and the Soviet Union risks “misdiagnosing the nature of the threat” and “misunderstanding the nature of competition.”
As historian Melvin Leffler put it, the Cold War occurred "because of the special circumstances facing the United States after 1945. The historical context in which America operates today, the prevailing composition of power on the international scene, and the ideological appeal of the rival regime are quite different."
lonely experience
What this division of opinion shows is that whether the belief that there is a cold war between the United States and China depends on how you choose to define the term. Unfortunately, the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union is the only previous experience and the only historical model available. Indeed, its unique and cumulative aspects have largely defined the term. But countries do not need to do this exclusively. and George Orwell, who coined the term "Cold War" in October 1945, as a diagnosis of the conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union, and referred to it simply as "peace not peace," a state of hostility less than armed conflict.
The competition between the United States and China is shaped to fit this basic description. Although Beijing does not seek global hegemony, the abolition of democracy, or the destruction of capitalism (which it has largely embraced), it does seek global legitimacy for its ruling model of "socialism with Chinese characteristics". China, too, seeks to enhance its wealth, power and influence, especially compared to the United States. And in large part because the latter has long been the global standard for wealth, power and influence. Beijing believes that Washington has adopted a policy of effective containment to resist the expansion of Chinese influence. This is prompting Chinese leaders to try to rein in American capabilities that seek to impede Chinese ambitions. Chinese leaders, too, seek to exploit fault lines between the United States and other countries that might otherwise cooperate with Washington's efforts to do so.
All of this is compounded by the lack of strategic sympathy on both sides.
Beijing and Washington seem unable to understand, or unwilling to fully appreciate their respective perspectives;
or acknowledgment of the interactive component of each other's behavior.
This was largely reflected in the recent diplomatic exchanges in which the two sides talked about each other and distorted each other's rhetoric.
This chasm is exacerbated by the clear belief that each side has the upper hand in the competition.
Washington confirmed that it would deal with China from a "position of strength", while Chinese leaders rejected this hypothesis explicitly.
Moreover, Beijing appears to be calculating that the rise of China and the decline of the United States have reached an inflection point, as Beijing is now in a position to resist American pressure and begin to dictate its own terms for the relationship.
Thus both sides overestimate his strength and underestimate his weaknesses.
Zero confrontation
Both are wrong.
Most importantly, both are weak by nature.
Behind each other's clamor, both sides internally confront this vulnerability in ways that greatly increase the possibility of a de facto Cold War—as Orwell defines it.
The domestic political situation in both the United States and China is pushing a zero-sum confrontation approach for both sides.
Yet the Biden administration is constrained by an impartial and empirical assessment of the challenge posed by China, because doing so risks being branded by Republicans;
Even many Democrats say they are soft on the threat from China.
And the partisan divide is so evenly and precisely balanced in both Congress and public opinion that neither Biden, nor his potential Republican successor, are inclined to risk giving the opposition party such evidence.
On the Chinese side, the belief that the United States poses an existential threat to China is based, in part, on U.S. policy statements over the years that have implicitly or explicitly called for regime change in Beijing. Such statements validated CCP leaders' deep and legitimate fears of domestic unrest and the possibility of being aided and abetted by foreign subversives. But negative views of the United States among the Chinese people are also fueled by a history of foreign violations of Chinese sovereignty, in which America played a role even before the rule of the Chinese Communist Party, as well as perceptions of arrogant and intrusive American international behavior in recent decades. These perceptions are constantly fueled by CCP propaganda, but there is a lot of historical truth to them.
The result is ostensibly a zero-sum competition for wealth, power, and influence between the world's two largest powers, which have opposing political and economic systems, and both seek international support for these systems.
This has all the characteristics of Orwell's "peace not peace".
Clearly, a cold war between the United States and China is not desirable, nor is it necessarily inevitable.
But it is very difficult to see how Beijing and Washington, individually or jointly, will take the necessary steps to avoid this.
Neither side appears ready or able to overcome basic misunderstanding and mistrust of the other, or the internal dilemmas that help fuel misunderstanding and mistrust.
Do leaders on both sides have the wisdom, courage, and political will to redirect history toward a different path?
Paul Hare ■ Fellow of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
• Comparing the competition between the United States and China with the Cold War between America and the Soviet Union, involves the risks of "misdiagnosing the nature of the threat."
• Behind the clamor in dealing with each other, both sides internally confront this weakness in ways that greatly increase the possibility of a de facto cold war between them.
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