IMF: the increase in inflation will continue in the coming months

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06 October 2021 "Inflation growth will continue in the coming months before returning to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022, although the risks of an acceleration remain".

The forecast is by the

, according to which "annual inflation in advanced economies will reach a peak of 3.6% on average in the final months of this year before returning to 2% in the first half of 2022, in line with the objectives of the central banks. Emerging countries will see more rapid increases, reaching 6.8% on average before falling to 4% ". The projections, however, warn Washington economists in one of the analytical chapters of the

, "contain considerable uncertainty and inflation may remain high for longer".

Among

, the Fund lists the increase in the price of homes, bottlenecks in the supply chain, the pressures on the cost of food, running in energy prices and the depreciation of currencies in emerging markets. During the pandemic, the document notes, the cost of food increased by 40%, with serious consequences for developing countries where this sector accounts for a large share of consumer spending.

"

for the authorities ", says the Fund," it is that long-term inflationary expectations are well anchored, but ", adds the report," economists do not have a unified view on how long the upward pressures on prices will ultimately last.

For this, the analysis stresses, "the authorities will have to move along a fine line between maintaining patience in their support for the recovery and being ready to act quickly. And more importantly, they must set solid monetary frameworks, including triggers to trigger the reduction in support for the economy when unwanted inflation needs to be curbed. "

According to the Fund," the thresholds for the action should include the first signs of unhooking inflationary expectations. "Con

to maintain "solid and credible communication, which plays a particularly crucial role in anchoring expectations".