Ursula von der Leyen published a photo on Sunday that showed her in front of the veiled Arc de Triomphe in Paris.

The EU Commission President did not comment on the federal election, not even on the following day.

But one could attach all sorts of thoughts to the picture.

Paris is now even more important when it comes to the Commission's course.

Von der Leyen owes her office to French President Emmanuel Macron, who conjured her out of her hat in July 2019.

The fact that von der Leyen was never head of government herself was compensated by the fact that she had Macron's backing and everyone knew about her close relationship with the Chancellor.

They should have called at least once or twice a week.

How close the relationship with her successor will be is currently open.

Thomas Gutschker

Political correspondent for the European Union, NATO and the Benelux countries based in Brussels.

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A lot is at stake for von der Leyen, including her own future.

In Brussels, many expect that she is aiming for a second term from 2024.

She could then run as the top candidate of her party family, the Christian-Democratic EPP.

Even if the EPP were to become the strongest party again, von der Leyen would have to be nominated by the federal government.

That would only be a matter of form if the Chancellor were Armin Laschet.

Europe's social democrats are closer to the Greens than Scholz

However, if the CDU goes into the opposition, the situation will be different. Why should a traffic light coalition send a Christian Democrat to Brussels? Of course, that would not be ruled out; it could be part of a larger agreement. Two years ago, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte also allowed Frans Timmermans to become the first Vice-President of the Commission as the top candidate of the Social Democrats. 

Most actors in Brussels pay close attention to the formation of a government in Berlin, because the next coalition will decide on the German course of European policy. The European Social Democrats saw the performance of the SPD as a sign that the dead are living longer. “The dire predictions for social democracy have turned out to be wrong. Instead, we are seeing a strong wave of support for progressive politics in Europe, ”said Iratxe García Pérez; the Spaniard leads the group in the European Parliament.

The German MP Jens Geier, who heads the SPD group, also read the result as a sign of greater social cushioning for ecological and digital change. An SPD-led government will work towards this and "at the same time increase the pressure that the Green Deal is implemented," said Geier. The European SPD is closer to the Greens than Olaf Scholz.

The Christian Democrats were apparently still in a state of shock on Monday, especially since the laboriously suppressed conflicts between the CDU and CSU broke out again in their committee meetings.

From the CSU party executive it was reported that the EPP parliamentary group chairman Manfred Weber had spoken of a "bitter result" and said that the CSU would have done much better with Söder in Bavaria.

That would have been hypocritical, because everyone in Brussels knows that Weber was on Laschet's side in the struggle for the top candidate.

What it is like when the Union lands below the thirty percent mark, both parties had already found out in the 2019 European elections;

together they only came to 28.9 percent.