The French newspaper "Le Figaro" said that the balance of power is not clearly visible after the exit from the German elections, unless the country is divided into two camps, which makes the left side appear heavier in the electoral balance than the right.

The newspaper pointed out in a report by its writer David Philpo that the results of the vote for the left and the right have never been more close than they are today, since the first election of Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2005, when the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union - who run the country - represented two-thirds of the electorate, However, Sunday's vote gave them only half the votes.

The decrease in the votes obtained by the two parties - according to the newspaper - will open the game to enter into a tripartite alliance, and perhaps a quadrilateral, if an alliance between the CDU wins with the Bavarians in the Christian Social Union, environmentalists, and the liberals of the Free Democratic Party.

And if the analysis is satisfied with the first opinion polls, which are still inaccurate, there will be 5 possible scenarios, especially since “everything is still possible, and nothing is excluded except for the participation of the extreme right,” says Frank Basner of the Franco-German Institute in Ludwigsburg.

The report outlines possible scenarios in the following summary.

First, the "grand coalition", whether led by the CDU or the SPD, is doomed to resort to the spare wheels if other combinations fail, a situation not favored by the German voter, according to a poll conducted by the "Sevi" organization last week.


waiter and cook

In light of the announced figures, the gathering of all party leaders live on television should allow the tone of statements and reconciliations to be dissected, before substantive discussions begin later this week, and political analyst Albrecht von Loeke and some observers expect them to be swift.

Von Locke proceeds from the historic decline recorded by the Christian Democrats, which is the worst result in their history, noting that if the results lead to placing the Christian Democratic Union in second place, there will remain one possible coalition, because the Christian Democratic Union will not be the same as before. The waiter for the socialist cook", von Locke ruled out the second scenario.

This political analyst warned that the second place does not necessarily mean defeat, as the Social Democratic Party managed in 1969, 1976 and 1980 to build a coalition without winning the elections, and this is the third scenario, but - as the professor of political communication Andrea Romelli mentioned - "it was because The Social Democratic Party and the Liberal Party at that time had orchestrated a power-sharing campaign."

pressure on the liberals

However, the matter is different this time, because in the last two televised debates, the social-democratic and environmental candidates openly expressed their desire to unite the ranks, especially since it is difficult to ignore the mandate given to the greens to achieve their best grades, although the majority is mathematically possible without being summoned, to be within the fourth scenario. .

And Andrea Rummelli believes that "Socialist Party leader Olaf Schulz would prefer an alliance with the Greens and the Liberals in the fifth scenario, because the extreme left's anti-NATO positions cannot be reconciled with his positions, and the FDP has its red lines against increasing taxes on the well-to-do. But he is "under great pressure and cannot afford to spoil the negotiations, because his credibility depends on it."

The newspaper concludes by saying, Claudia Major, who heads the Department of Security and International Politics at the Berlin think-tank, that “the parties of the new coalition will never work together at the federal level before putting the coalition project to their supporters to vote, so there will be a learning stage, which requires a lot of patience on the part of the Germans.” On the part of the partners.