She paints the picture of the country after Angela Merkel
German elections involve big national and European stakes
Merkel and her successor, Laschet.
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A woman in traditional dress casts her vote at a polling station.
EPA
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Will post-Merkel Germany become a less stable country?
In what direction will its policy go?
Will the left succeed in reaching the chancellery at the expense of the conservatives?
Will environmentalists and liberals participate in the next government?
These are the main bets in the legislative elections that took place yesterday in Germany, while speculations are still valid about their results.
end of an era?
These elections will paint the picture of Germany after Angela Merkel.
After four terms and 16 years in power at the head of Europe's first economic power, the 67-year-old chancellor has not run for elections, and since October 2018, Merkel has expressed her intention not to run, following an electoral setback for her party in the Hessen region, and she also does not intend to start a march. Professional in European or international bodies, as previously reported by media outlets.
This is the first time since 1949 that a German chancellor has not run for elections.
Under Merkel, Germany was one of the furthest European countries from any uncertainty about the future. This could change after elections that threaten to split votes and a government that includes three parties, unstable by nature, to lead the country.
Conservatives in danger?
In light of recent opinion polls, the conservative camp, to which the chancellor belongs, may record its worst electoral result since the founding of contemporary Germany in 1949, with about 23% of the vote compared to 32.8% in 2017.
Consequently, the Conservatives could lose the chancellorship, even moving to the opposition for the first time since 2005.
The Social Democrats are recording a slight lead over the Christian Democrats, in recent opinion polls and are looking to lead the government, for the first time since Gerhard Schroeder, when they were in a very difficult situation a year ago.
What result will the extreme right achieve?
After the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party became, in the previous elections in 2017, the first opposition force in the House of Representatives, taking advantage of the fears of part of public opinion about the arrival of hundreds of thousands of immigrants to the country, it obtained in recent opinion polls about 11% of voting intentions However, immigration is no longer a topic of much interest to the Germans, so the party has tried to reposition itself as a defender of “liberties” in the face of the restrictions of the fight against “Covid”, and therefore its result will be closely followed.
Environmentalists and liberals in the next government?
Environmentalists, with about 16% of the vote, and the right-wing Liberals, with about 11% of the vote, may find themselves in the position of "decision-makers" in a future coalition government.
Several majoritarian coalitions are supposed to be possible in the next parliament, ranging from a purely leftist coalition to a right-leaning government, all of which heralds arduous negotiations to form the next government.
Germany's partners fear a prolonged stalemate, while Europe fears geopolitical marginalization.
What is German foreign policy in the coming period?
The final form of government will have a major influence on Germany's future international politics, even if the three big parties lead a centrist campaign.
The country will be more inclined to fiscal solidarity in Europe, with a government dominated by the Social Democrats and the Green Party, than it will be with the conservatives and liberals, who, more than the left, support military missions abroad.
Germany may witness a period of tension with NATO, if a government is formed that includes the radical left-wing Die Linke party, which promotes the dissolution of the alliance.
The evolution of the Franco-German duo, which has seen some setbacks under Merkel, will also depend on the final outcome, as the French elect a new president in April 2022. Paul Morris of the Franco-German Studies Committee explains that with the arrival of a new government “we are waiting for From Germany to be a more powerful force to make proposals at the European level.”
Helmut Kohl «1982-1998»
Christian Democrat: At first he was ridiculed by intellectuals as a local politician, and Kohl ended up in office longer than any other chancellor, and if Angela Merkel stays in office beyond December, due to the long haggling of coalition formation after the elections, she will beat Kohl With the unification of Germany in 1990, Kohl became known in history as the "unity chancellor".
Cole ruled throughout his time in power with the Liberal Free Democratic Party.
Angela Merkel (2005-2021)
Christian democracy: Merkel is the first woman and first East German politician to lead the German government. During four terms in office, she witnessed many international crises, and gained a reputation as a politician and a global figure. Shortly after the start of her fourth term, she announced that she would not compete for the post again.
With its first coalition of the Christian Democratic Party and the Bavarian Christian Social Party, a conservative bloc, and the Social Democratic Party, then it turned to the Liberal Democratic Party as a junior partner in 2009, and after the 2013 elections it returned to cooperating with the Social Democratic Party.
The formation of its last and current government took five and a half months after the September 2017 elections, and it initially tried to form a tripartite coalition with the Greens and the Free Democratic Party, but the latter withdrew from the talks, and after swore to remain in the opposition ranks, the Social Democratic Party eventually voted in favor of joining. coalition in March.
Gerhard Schroeder (1998-2005)
Democratic Socialist: Schroeder is remembered for his initiative to phase out nuclear Germany, a process initially halted by his successor Merkel, then reasserted, and caused the outrage of practical unions with his draconian social reforms, dubbed "Agenda 2010", and praised the Kremlin's leader, Vladimir Putin , as a "democrat without errors".
Schroeder ruled during his term as head of a coalition with the Greens, and the Greens' leader, Joschka Fischer, was his deputy and foreign minister.
Germany's partners fear a prolonged stalemate, while Europe fears geopolitical marginalization.
Germany may witness a period of tension with "NATO", if a government is formed that includes the leftist "Die Linke" party.
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