China News Service, September 27 (Sweet). On the 27th local time, the German Federal Election Counting Agency announced the final results of the Bundestag election. The Social Democratic Party won the Bundestag election with a 25.7% vote rate. The CDU/CSU has a history. The lowest vote rate since 24.1% ranks second.

　　This also means that the current Chancellor Merkel, who has been at the helm of the country for 16 years and no longer seeks re-election, may soon bid farewell to politics.

With this "Iron Lady" turning and leaving, what future will Germany and the European Union head toward?

On August 26, 2021, pedestrians in the center of Berlin pass the election panels of various political parties.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Peng Dawei

[Political shuffle Merkel may become the longest German prime minister]

　　For the Social Democratic Party, which has the most votes, the challenge has just begun.

　　Since no political party alone won more than half of the votes, the Social Democratic Party needs to form a cabinet with other parties.

During this period, Merkel may continue to serve as the caretaker prime minister.

　　And this may last for several weeks or more.

After the last election, after 169 days of long cabinet-building negotiations, Germany finally had a new government.

　　This time, in the face of more intense scuffles, German politicians believe that Merkel's political career will not end until at least the end of December, and it is likely that she will become Germany's longest-term chancellor.

　　In addition, how to ensure that the new coalition government "will not fall apart due to internal strife" will also become another major challenge facing the Social Democratic Party.

Data map: On September 24, 2017, the 2017 German Bundestag election officially ended voting.

The picture shows Merkel speaking at the CDU election rally that night.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Peng Dawei

[German party politics "fragmentation" farewell to stability?

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　　Looking back at this "super election year" in Germany, the election situation has reversed several times and unexpectedly.

　　Since the COVID-19 pandemic, under the "halo" of Merkel, the coalition party that was optimistic by public opinion has fallen into a mask scandal, and has been criticized for ineffective response to floods, and its glory is no longer good.

Following the strong rise of the Green Party, which plays the "climate card", the Social Democratic Party has also been catching up.

　　In an interview with Chinanews.com, Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, pointed out that the large domestic public opinion in Germany has split and fluctuated, showing the fragmentation trend of German party politics in recent years.

　　Merkel led Germany and Europe to respond to a series of challenges such as the European debt crisis and the Ukrainian crisis, and played the role of a "stability anchor", but public support for some of its domestic policies was polarized.

　　The choice party, which has grown through anti-immigration sentiment, was once violent. Although it has obviously weakened in this year's election topics, it does not mean that right-wing forces have disappeared.

　　Multiple parties with similar approval ratings will fight each other more fiercely. German media believe that "the political stability that Germans cherish will most likely cease to exist."

Data map: On January 10, 2016, anti-immigrant protests broke out in Germany.

Demonstrators targeted German Chancellor Angela Merkel, accusing her of allowing refugees to run wild in Germany through her free stance on refugees.

[Young people "look forward to change" when the international order changes]

　　In this election, there is also a special group of "voters" thinking about whether Germany in the post-Merkel era needs to change its "style".

　　Albrecht, a 17-year-old student, was "shocked" by Merkel's 16-year rule and believed that Germany needs "real change."

　　Although young people in Germany grew up under Merkel, they are farther away from the values ​​of the older generation and focus more on social justice and the ecological environment.

And this is exactly the legacy of Merkel's tenure.

　　On major and pressing issues such as digitalization, climate policy, and demographic changes, “the attitude of this country is almost weirdly backward,” said Baker, a professor of political science and political sociology at the University of Mannheim in Germany.

　　Germany, which has experienced the "golden age", has stagnated in some areas, economic inequality has increased, and half of the population owns 99.5% of Germany's wealth.

Taking Germany as a cross-section reflects that many European countries are also facing many severe challenges such as the epidemic situation and geopolitical competition.

　　The problem of intergenerational turnover in Germany is not only manifested in the changes in young people's understanding of politics, but also involves their own social development, Cui Hongjian said.

In the face of a series of challenges brought about by changes in the international order and science and technology, "Germany has become somewhat powerless."

Data map: On July 17, 2020, Brussels, Belgium, French President Macron and German Chancellor Merkel attended the EU face-to-face summit.

["Take fate in your own hands"?

】

　　Without "mother" Merkel, can Germany continue to maintain its influence?

What changes are possible in the policy direction?

　　First of all, Germany is expected to maintain its dominant position in Europe, many experts pointed out to Chinanews.

　　As the most economically powerful country in Europe, Germany under the leadership of Merkel is not willing, but has no choice but to provoke the leader.

Germany's role becomes more important, and France's weight decreases.

With Merkel's departure, French President Macron is likely to try to fill the leadership vacuum.

　　However, given Germany's strong economic power, it still has the power to dominate the European Union.

But in the field of diplomacy, especially security, its voice and initiative may not be as good as France.

Data map: On the evening of June 9, 2018, German Chancellor Merkel's team posted a photo taken on the second day of the Canadian G7 summit on Twitter.

Because at this summit, US President Trump alone "offended" the leaders of the other six G7 countries, this photo was also regarded by foreign netizens as the "best in the audience" of this G7 summit.

　　Second, in the face of the relationship between the United States and Germany, Germany should "take its destiny in its own hands."

　　After four years of destruction of the alliance relationship by the Trump administration, the United States and Europe have drifted away.

Subsequently, the United States was exposed to the European surveillance scandal.

Coupled with the recent Biden administration's "cutting Hu" submarine contract, which "stabbed" France in the back, Europe has once again sounded the alarm.

　　Europe, which was expecting Biden to repair transatlantic relations, once again found woundedly, "The United States is an unreliable friend."

　　Yan Jin, executive director of the Center for European Studies at Renmin University of China, pointed out that Germany-US relations "cannot go back to the past."

Germany and the European Union will continue to promote strategic autonomy.

　　In addition, from the perspective of personal style, the new German leader's China policy will tend to be tough.

But considering the continuity of Germany's foreign policy, the general direction of China will not change, Yan Jin believes.

　　German media quoted experts to analyze that any party in the "French-German axis" often does not act unilaterally.

Before the dust settles in the French election in April 2022, Germany's China policy will not change much.

(over)