Merkel's resignation is imminent, there are still many unfinished things
On September 21, local time, in Stralsund, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany, Chancellor Merkel and the president of the Christian Democratic Union and conservative candidate Amin Raschelt participated in a campaign rally.
Image courtesy of People's Vision
The 2021 German general election will be held on September 26.
With the formation of a new German government, the current Chancellor Merkel's ruling career has also entered a countdown.
As the first female Chancellor of Germany, Merkel has been re-elected three times since winning the first general election in 2005.
In her 16-year career as prime minister, she has led Germany through the global financial crisis, the euro crisis, the refugee crisis, climate change, and the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
Even people who are not completely sure of Merkel's performance have to admit that in the face of these tests, Merkel, as the "most important leader in Europe" for more than ten years, has handed in a relatively qualified answer.
The mainstream view is that although Merkel's conservatism middle line has brought about year-round stability in German politics, the competition among parties in the German general election is still fierce, and the variables of the general election have brought Germany farewell to "Merkel-style stability". risk.
Election day does not mean "end"
Until the new government is formally formed, the current government will continue to operate, and Merkel will serve as the caretaker prime minister.
In the past few decades, the German Federal Chancellor and the new cabinet have generally been sworn in within 5-6 weeks after the general election. However, after the last general election, the coalition party and the Social Democratic Party’s cabinet formation negotiations lasted for 5 months.
The Chairman of the Left Party Caucus Barch previously predicted: "By Christmas this year, Merkel will still be the Chancellor of Germany." If this is the case, Merkel will surpass Kohl to become the longest-serving head of government in Germany after World War II.
The uncertainty caused by the division of voters is an important feature of this German general election, and it is also the core reason why all parties generally believe that the current German government is difficult to form a cabinet.
According to a poll conducted by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on September 17, 40% of citizens preparing to vote are still unclear which party they will choose on September 26.
The British "Guardian" commented that this is the "confusion" of the Germans facing the "post-Merkel era" and "a fear of the unknown".
The German government is a parliamentary republic, and the Federal Chancellor is the head of government, leading the work of the federal government; the Bundestag is the national political power center, with 598 statutory seats, and elections are usually held every 4 years.
Each voter can cast two votes in the general election. The first vote is for the candidate of their choice in the constituency, and the second vote is for the party they trust-the latter will determine to a greater extent each party in the federal parliament. The number of seats finally occupied.
Currently holding seats in the German Bundestag are the Coalition Party, the Social Democratic Party, the German Choice Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, the Left Party and the Green Party.
According to the election rules, the party with the highest number of votes in the Bundestag has the priority to form a cabinet, and the candidate for the prime minister is determined through cabinet negotiation.
In the current German general election, there are 3 candidates for prime minister, namely Raschelt of the center-right Coalition Party, Scholz of the center-left Social Democratic Party, and Belle Burke of the Green Party.
Recently, the Social Democratic Party, which was previously considered to be a "accompaniment" role, has shown a strong upward trend in party support and personal support for prime minister candidates.
The German Constitution stipulates that a single political party or a combination of parties must occupy more than half of the seats in the parliament to form a government, but there is currently no major traditional party that has a support rate of 30%.
This means that the probability of Germany changing from a two-party coalition to a three-party cabinet has increased.
Considering that in the last televised debate of the German chancellor candidates on September 19, both Scholz and Berberk made it clear that they would not form a cabinet with the Coalition Party. Analysts speculated that in the case of a three-party cabinet with a higher probability, It may be a "traffic light" combination composed of the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party, or a "Jamaica" combination composed of the Coalition Party, the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party.
At present, it is not ruled out that the Social Democratic Party and the Coalition Party form a red-black coalition, and a third party joins the coalition government.
"Merkel generation" looks forward to change
In this German general election, there is a group of "special" young people, they are called "Merkel generation."
According to data from the German Federal Statistics Office, there are about 2.8 million young people who are over 18 years old and are eligible to vote in the federal election for the first time. They have lived in a world with "chancellor Merkel" for as long as they can remember.
Although statistics show that these "first voters" account for only about 5% of the total number of voters in Germany, due to the highly divided voters and the ability of young people to proficiently use social media with large spreading effects, the "Merkel generation" may still be The results of the election have had a significant impact.
Change is the key word to describe the "Merkel generation".
Compared with their parents, today's young Germans no longer place too much emphasis on wealth and career achievements, and pay more attention to social justice, climate change and the ecological environment.
According to a survey conducted by the German Ministry of Environment, only 19% of people aged 14 to 17 believe that economic growth is more important than protecting the environment.
However, the issues that these young people are concerned about and hope to play a role in, to varying degrees, belong to the legacy of Merkel's tenure.
For example, "social justice" is a typical leftist issue.
Although Merkel's coalition party belongs to the conservative camp, she did not reject the absorption of leftist ideas when she was in power, such as actively cooperating with the Social Democratic Party to carry out social work and focusing on protecting the rights and interests of women and children.
However, this "left-right balance technique" seems to belong only to Merkel's personal ability, but it has not fully penetrated the political propositions of the Coalition Party.
In the "future team" formed by Lashet for this general election, there are almost all people in various important fields such as digitalization, security policy, education, but there are no experts in social policy, and social policy almost covers social justice, The main internal affairs areas such as old-age care, gender equality, family policy, and immigrant integration are self-evident.
In the last week before the general election, Merkel was still actively expressing her stance on "accelerating the implementation of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development."
Even so, the fact is that Germany suffered a "one-in-a-hundred-year" flood in mid-July this year. People could not help being criticized: Merkel, who was once a scientist, did not try to get Germany out of various financial crises as soon as possible. Pay sufficient attention to climate policy.
Merkel also admitted in her last annual press conference as prime minister that she had failed to take decisive action on the issue of climate change.
In an interview with the British "The Economist", Brinkmann, a recent graduate of a middle school in Hanover, the capital of Lower Saxony, Germany, said that Merkel "pushed away" the seemingly difficult problems of climate and environment.
Sprengel, from the same school, believes that Merkel rarely acts impulsively, but this will not bring about the changes needed for climate policy. Germans now aspire to a more courageous leader.
Merkel's "successor" will face many tests
Although Merkel no longer seeks re-election, her shadow can still be seen everywhere in the current German general election.
Leaving aside Raschelt, who is under the aura of "Merkel's successor in the party", Politico website analysis believes that the reason Scholz was able to come from behind and win the "three consecutive victories" in the television debates on the prime minister’s candidates was precisely that Thanks to his long-term calm approach to things, and after becoming a candidate, he intentionally or unintentionally imitated Merkel's words and deeds-including Merkel's "signature" diamond gestures when taking pictures.
Scholz also expressed his gratitude to Merkel on many occasions in public, as if he wanted to seek the favor of stable centrist voters.
Some analysts say that most voters in Germany have always sought stability and not change. When they have to "lost" Merkel, many people are willing to choose someone more like her to replace her.
But for the next German Chancellor, the challenge before him is far from being as simple as imitating the ruling style of his predecessor.
At present, the German economy is considered to have insufficient investment in education and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and electric vehicles.
Germany's new crown vaccination rate lags far behind that of major European countries such as Britain, France, and Italy. It is under greater pressure to deal with the fourth wave of new crown pneumonia in autumn and winter.
Merkel stated in a parliamentary speech on September 7 that in the face of the current turbulent world, the 2021 election is "decisive" for Germany.
It is worth noting that in the three German election debates that have ended, the three prime minister candidates hardly mentioned anything related to diplomatic strategy.
Whether it is the Afghanistan issue, the German immigration issue, or the European defense integration issue triggered by the signing of the nuclear submarine agreement between the United States, Britain and Australia, which has recently attracted great attention from the international community, none of them have appeared in the debate.
Noah Barkin of the German Marshall Foundation’s China Studies Institute criticized on social media: “There was no mention of Europe, U.S.-Europe relations, China, Russia, or Afghanistan in the 90-minute televised debate. In this election, , As if the world outside of Germany does not exist at all." But obviously, these are the answers that Merkel's successor has to hand over to the world.
Our newspaper, Beijing, September 22, by wire
China Youth Daily·China Youth Daily reporter Ma Ziqian Source: China Youth Daily