• ECB, Lagarde: economy clearly recovering, speed depends on pandemic and vaccines

  • ECB, Lagarde: "We come out of the pandemic with a recovering economy"


23 September 2021 "The macroeconomic projections formulated by the ECB experts in September 2021 foresee an annual growth of GDP in real terms of 5% in 2021, 4.6% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023".

This is what we read in the latest economic bulletin of the ECB.

Compared to the exercise conducted in June by Eurosystem experts, the prospects for 2021 have been revised upwards (they were at 4.7%, ed.) Mainly due to the more solid results than expected in the first half of the year; the figures relating to 2022 and 2023 remain substantially unchanged ". The euro area, the report reads, has" proceeded towards strong growth in the third quarter "and" the most recent information indicates a further improvement in the activity of the euro area in the second half of 2021 "." In the medium term - the ECB predicts - a decisive recovery of the economy is expected ".

World GDP will grow more than expected, especially in 2022

"Overall, the growth prospects of the world economy are slightly more favorable than previous projections, primarily for 2022. After an expected growth rate of 6.3 percent in 2021, according to projections the world GDP in real terms (excluding the euro area) it is expected to grow by 4.5 per cent in 2022 and by 3.7 per cent in 2023. The recovery from the crisis on an international scale should remain uneven. The advanced economies outside the euro area 'euro should return to its pre-pandemic trends in early 2022, mainly led by the United States ". 

The ECB revises upward eurozone inflation estimates for 2021

ECB experts revise this year's estimates of euro area inflation upwards in September. This is what is read in the monthly bulletin of the ECB, which predicts "an annual inflation rate of 2.2 per cent in 2021, 1.7 per cent in 2022 and 1.5 per cent in 2023, revised upwards compared to the June projections ", respectively by 1.9% and 1.5% for 2022 and 2023." Compared to the June projections, inflation has also been revised upwards at net of the energy and food component, which would stand, on average, at 1.3 percent in 2021, 1.4 percent in 2022 and 1.5 percent in 2023 ". 

ECB: strong recovery, strong growth in the summer months

After + 2.2% of GDP in the second quarter, the euro area "proceeding towards strong growth in the third quarter" and "the most recent information (such as the Pmi indices, ed) indicate a further improvement in activity of the euro area in the second half of 2021 ", writes the ECB in the Economic Bulletin, anticipating that" in the medium term a decisive recovery of the economy is expected "which has made the growth estimate for 2021 improve to 5% , keeping 2022 at 4.6 and 2023 at 2.1.

ECB: short-term growth prospects blurred with Delta variant

The recovery of global economic activity continues, although persistent supply-side bottlenecks and the spread of the more contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus cloud short-term growth prospects. This was revealed by the monthly Bulletin of the ECB.

The latest surveys, the document reads, "indicate a slight weakening of the pace of expansion, particularly in emerging economies. Compared to the previous year, the macroeconomic projections formulated in September 2021 by ECB experts mark a slight upward revision of the prospects for the growth of the world economy, especially for 2022. This year, the growth of world GDP in real terms (excluding the euro area) is expected to increase, reaching 6.3 per cent, and then slow to 4%. , 5 percent in 2022 and 3.7 percent in 2023 ". 

Eurozone: growth slows in September, Delta variant weighs

Economic activity in the Eurozone indicated a sharp decline in the growth rate of activity, reflecting the pressing demand in the second quarter, difficulties on the supply chain and concerns about the current state of the pandemic. Expectations for the next twelve months were also affected by growing concerns about the impact of the Delta variant on demand and the distribution chain, thus contributing to further slowing the job creation rate from its 21-year peak in July. Looking at the flash estimate, the September IHS Markit Pmi Composite Eurozone Index dropped significantly from 59.0 in August to 56.1 (a 5-month low), showing a further weakening of the rate of expansion from its 15-year peak in July.While it remained above the 50 level which separates growth from contraction for the seventh consecutive month, the index is well below analysts' estimate of 58.5 points.