Days after the "Taliban" movement imposed its control over the Afghan capital, Kabul, an Israeli media was able to broadcast an exclusive interview with one of the movement's spokesman, "Mohammed Shaheen".

However, the exceptional and shocking event, which coincided with the movement's declarations of its eagerness to open up in its upcoming relations, quickly turned out to have occurred without revealing the true identity of the Taliban spokesperson.

Indeed, in the recording, the voice of Shaheen, who was flocked by the Western media, was heard asking the Israeli reporter: “Where are you from?” The latter replied in English: “Kan News.. Kan News,” before the reporter moved to start a question about the movement’s dealings with religious minorities. in the country.

The Hebrew "Kan" correspondent did not miss the opportunity to ask Shaheen about his movement's dealings with the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and his position on congratulating it.

We can read this quick media risk as an indication of the extent of Israel's fear of what is happening in Afghanistan, which neighbors the archenemy of the Israelis, "Iran".

This time, Israel is puzzled over the significance of the Taliban's control of the country: Is it a "potential dagger in the back of Iran?"

Or "a new focus of political Islam hostile to Tel Aviv?"

למי שפספס והחמיץ, השיחה הבלעדית ויוצאת הדופן שקיימנו עם דובר הטליבאן בקטר, סוהיל שאהין, שבה הוא מתייחס לשלל נושאים אחרי כיבוש אפגניסטן ונסיגת ארה"ב. הריאיון הוא חלק ממתקפת חיוכים רחבה של הארגון פנימה והחוצה. אבל המסר המרכזי הוא "אפגניסטן תחילה". חומר ייחודי שנדיר לראות במחוזותינו https://t.co/aqRxWIN59Z

— roi kais • רועי קייס (@kaisos1987) August 17, 2021

Iran's hands in Afghanistan

In August 1988, one of the most famous armed operations indicative of the extent of the hostility between Iran and the Taliban took place, when elements of the Taliban attacked the Iranian consulate in the city of Mazar-i-Sharif in northern Afghanistan, killing eight Iranians, including a journalist working for an official news agency. . Several reports said at the time that the late Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander "Qassem Soleimani" developed an urgent retaliatory military plan in cooperation with the Iranian-backed "Afghan Northern Alliance", where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei gave him 48 hours to carry out an operation and withdraw quickly. Although the operation did not take place for logistical and political reasons, the incident made Tehran's military intervention in Afghan territory or its fight against the Taliban an ever-present possibility. (1)

The complex relationship between Iran and Afghanistan dates back to four decades ago, specifically to the year of the Iranian revolution that coincided with the Soviet Union’s invasion of the country of the Afghans (1978-1979), both of which teased Tehran’s ambitions to become a regional player in its immediate neighborhood, especially in Afghanistan with which it has cultural relations. and strong religious beliefs, most notably the semi-official “Dari” language in Iran, as well as the significant Shiite population (known as Hazara) in western Afghanistan in the state of Herat.

But although geopolitical factors and cultural ties enabled Iran to exercise significant influence in Afghanistan, ideological disagreement and political ambition played a natural role in the tense relationship with the Taliban movement that seized power in the late 1990s. The Sunni movement adopted a hardline approach at the time, and suppressed the Hazara Shiites in Afghanistan, who viewed Tehran as a counterweight to the Sunni Taliban. On the other hand, the Taliban hosted al-Qaeda elements who sought to target Iran and other countries. It was not surprising, then, that Tehran sought to overthrow the movement at that time, and history recorded its decision to support the United States in its invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 to get rid of the threat of al-Qaeda, and after the events of September 2001, Iranian figures transmitted intelligence information to the Americans about the Taliban.

However, the animosity between the two parties quickly receded while the arms of the United States and its military bases extended east and west, from Central Asia to the Gulf, and from Iraq to Afghanistan, which made the relationship between Tehran and the Taliban swing towards a degree of tactical cooperation in the face of the American presence in the region, which is cooperation It was reinforced by the emergence of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Afghanistan and its targeting of Iran and the Taliban together, as the two parties are now coordinating to fight it and pursue its elements.

Likewise, the Taliban viewed Iran pragmatically with the passage of time, while its ideological militancy, which was known about it in the 1990s, lessened, and it became more sophisticated in the exercise of its regional policies.

At the start of peace talks with the United States in 2019, the Taliban rushed to win Iran over to their side, and began including Afghan ethnic minorities in the newly emerging alliance, and many of their senior leaders went to Tehran for consultations with Iranian officials.

For its part, throughout the US occupation, Iran has been working to win over local actors in order to thwart US interests.

(2)

The US withdrawal: an opportunity or a burden for Iran?

Observers believe that Tehran now has several options to advance its interests in Afghanistan: the first is to support the Taliban, reach agreements with the movement to contain its activities, and then build alliances.

Iran's satisfaction with the Americans' withdrawal from its neighborhood does not mean that Tehran will not face challenges related to expanding its influence in Kabul in the near future. This is not only related to the difficulty of dealing with the Taliban as a Sunni movement and Tehran's preoccupation with other regional battles, most notably Syria, but also related to the negative perception by some Afghans towards Tehran's activities in their country, as well as the significant restrictions imposed by the dispute over water rights between the two countries, in addition to the challenge The waves of Afghan refugees, more than a million of whom have been languishing in Iran for years.

Observers believe that Tehran is now faced with several options to advance its interests in a country where it does not have an ally through which it exercises its influence, as it does in the countries of the Middle East.

The first is to support the Taliban secretly or openly, and to reach agreements with the movement in order to contain its activities, then build alliances and regional structures for continuous and periodic consultation with regional powers with an interest in Afghanistan, most notably China and Russia, similar to the “Astana” group on Syria, especially since those countries Itself did not want the continued American presence in its backyard, and it will seek to crystallize an Afghan system that reduces the Western influence that the United States sponsored for twenty years in Kabul.

Israel.. Gains and Fears

After the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, the Israelis were the most accurate in determining how long the Taliban would need to take control of the country after crushing the Afghan government, saying it wouldn't take a few hours. This expectation stemmed from their experience in similar experiences, as it happened when their forces withdrew from Lebanon in May 2000, and the army of southern Lebanon collapsed directly, and within hours gave way to the control of the Lebanese Hezbollah, as happened in the Gaza Strip when Hamas took control of The Gaza Strip after the defeat of the Fatah movement in 2007 following the Israeli withdrawal from the Strip.

Despite its relative distance from Israel, the new reality that is taking shape in Afghanistan will have a limited impact on the Hebrew state, as Tel Aviv fears that the Taliban regime will fuel other jihadist movements in the Middle East, specifically Hamas and Jihad, which were quick to congratulate the Taliban.

This reinforces what Israel sees on the ground of an unprecedented Iranian daring to target it and its American ally, as Tehran has intensified the use of its proxies in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and things came to the point that Hezbollah launched 20 Katyusha rockets last August 6.

In conjunction with the arrival of a new Iranian president seeking to prove himself and his program, "Ebrahim Raisi", as well as the head of a new government in Israel, "Naftali Bennett", Tehran decided to move against its enemies and take advantage of the vacuum left by America over the past few years throughout the East Big middle.

What happened in Afghanistan, on the other hand, is reflected in the Israeli ambitions to strengthen relations with the countries of Central Asia (especially the countries closest to it such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan). In general, but it can also be seen as part of the pressure efforts through these countries on Tehran, which means that the emergence of a good working relationship between the Taliban in Afghanistan (the most populous country in Central Asia) and Iran may pave the way for obstructing the Israeli role in that region, especially And relations between Turkey and Iran are much better than those between Turkey and Israel until now, which limits the ability of the occupying power to move in that region.

On the other hand, there are several opportunities that the Israelis may reap from the Afghan crisis, as they believe that the Taliban’s arrival in Kabul complicates the calculations of the Shiite regime in Tehran, especially if the Taliban fails to establish complete control or is forced to engage in bargaining with Sunni wings or organizations that are more extremist than them. This means the failure of attempts to establish a good relationship with Tehran on both sides.

Therefore, there remains a possibility that Tehran will return to the square of the conflict with Sunni armed groups in Afghanistan, which will be appreciated by Tel Aviv, despite the difficulty of nurturing it directly due to the natural dissonance between Israel and these organizations.

Bahrain and the UAE stand at the top of the candidates to engage in deepening an alliance with Israel, and they are two of the countries more wary of Iran.

There is also another benefit for Israel, which is that the successive events in Afghanistan showed Washington before the Arab countries as an ally that is no longer willing to protect its allies, and then the American withdrawal will be a motive for the anti-Iranian countries in the region to strengthen their relations with Israel, and to pay attention to the files of security and intelligence coordination with them in the face of Iran after Washington failed to play that role. Here, Bahrain and the UAE stand at the top of the candidates to engage in deepening an alliance with Israel, especially since they publicly signed a normalization agreement with it last year, and they are among the countries more apprehensive than Iran.

As for Saudi Arabia, the normalization train then remains much slower due to the considerations of public opinion and the conservative religious establishment there. In addition, it seems that its main bet remains on diversifying its alliances between maintaining the Egyptian regime in the West and strengthening ties with Pakistan as much as possible in the East. It may even open the door to normalization with Turkey, which is easier popularly and strategically and militarily heavier to achieve a real balance with Iran in the region, especially since the Turks are involved in vital files of Saudi Arabia in its conflict with Iran inside Iraq and Syria, two countries that have recently been interested in Egypt.

In the end, it seems that Israel is not far from what is going on in Kabul, nor far from its consequences and repercussions on the Middle East and Central Asia, which have been of great interest for decades.

As for the rise of the Taliban, it complicates the file of the ongoing hostility between Israel and Iran, and may take the two sides towards new stations to strengthen their regional influence against each other, equations that will not be absent from them in the case of Turkey or Saudi Arabia, and will eventually strengthen the cards on the table before the Taliban regionally to create alliances and coordination It maintains its system and consolidates its pillars regionally and internationally.

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Sources

  • Iran focuses on Afghanistan

  • Iran's influence in Afghanistan