The submarine crisis .. Why does France avoid provoking the calm dragon and flirting with India?

Paris - Paris is

talking about a deep crisis with Washington, London and Canberra, and stresses that the moment of reconciliation with its traditional allies has not yet met its conditions.

And the White House says that Biden is pressing for an appointment from the Elysee to make a phone call with Macron, who withdrew his country's ambassadors from the American and Australian capitals in response to what his Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian described as a "stab in the back" that his country received in what became known as the submarine crisis.

Although some are trying to give an emotional character or angry responses to the steps taken by France in the wake of Australia’s nullification of the deal to buy conventional submarines from the French manufacturer “Naval” and replace them with American-made nuclear ones, the French diagnosis does not consider the matter just a commercial dispute over a military deal only, Rather, he considers it a deep disagreement centered on the divergence of strategic visions, which threatens French interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

On several issues, the French see that the approach of the United States - with Britain and Australia behind it - is inconsistent with its strategic approach to matters, and at the forefront of these issues is the relationship with China.

Paris believes that the new tripartite alliance between Washington, London and Canberra in the Indian and Pacific oceans is based on a confrontational strategy, even at the military level, while it believes that the relationship with Beijing - and what should be done in the face of the ambitions of the "quiet dragon" in the region - should not come out. About the framework of competition, and it must always be borne in mind that China is a competitor, not an enemy.

The French believe that provoking China is not justified, and its consequences will not be benign at all. Rather, the best policy is to encourage the Chinese giant to continue its calm approach in dealing with the international arena, and not to drag it into the square of military confrontation, not in the foreseeable or long term.

ignoring French interests

Paris has serious concerns that its traditional allies will adopt a confrontational strategy with China that will inevitably endanger French interests in the region; Any military slippage of the US-British-Australian trio strategy in the Indo-Pacific could result in a threat to the security of a million French citizens in "New Caledonia" and "French Polynesia", the two important French territories in the so-called overseas territories.

Even if the new tripartite alliance treats the relationship with China within the limits that allows to avoid slipping into military confrontations, this may not allay the fears of the capital of lights of seeing the specter of a new cold war hanging over the region. One of the consequences of this war may be that the French find themselves facing scenarios that inflate the old, renewed ghost that haunts them - especially in New Caledonia - which is the specter of independence from the authority of Paris; As "New Caledonia" is waiting for next December 12, to hold a new referendum on its independence from France, it will be the third and last, according to what was decided by the "Nouméa" agreements in 1998.

Although Paris avoided seeing "New Caledonia" emerge from the French dress in the previous two referendums, the percentages achieved by the supporters of "La Marseille" (French national anthem) remain unreassuring. In the referendum of the fourth of November 2018, those who supported staying within the borders of the French Republic registered 56.7%, but their percentage decreased in the referendum of the fourth of October 2020 to 53.3 percent. There is no guarantee that independence supporters will not continue to advance in the upcoming recent referendum.

It is feared that they will receive a great incentive in the new situations that may arise from the change of strategic programs in the Indian and Pacific oceans, in a way that deepens France’s isolation in it, and weakens its presence in the alliances that control the scene in the region, especially since the submarine contract that Australia canceled in a way that surprised Paris - far away. Far from being a financially rewarding and economically beneficial contract for France - it was at the heart of France's strategic approach to its defense concerns in the region.

Paris did not see a problem with including clauses in the canceled contract that allow the passing of military technology to yesterday’s near ally - Canberra - on the grounds that strengthening Australian military capabilities will relieve it, even a small number, of the burdens of protecting its lands and interests there, by strengthening security and defense cooperation with Australia, including The residents of the Elysée are expelled from the concerns of the erosion of the map of the Overseas Territories.

Flirting with India.. an available alternative

The cancellation of the submarine deal with Australia dealt a severe blow to France. In addition to the heavy material losses resulting from the loss of the Deal of the Century, the matter confused the defense strategy of Paris in the region. The French saw the emergence of a new tripartite alliance - made up of allied countries - that does not include France or its interests in its strategic calculations and isolates it suspiciously in an area where it has a foothold that it does not want to lose.

Therefore, the French "strategic mind" saw that it was inevitable to propose an alternative in which Paris would turn its back on Europe and extend its hand to India in order to create a new alliance. And here is Paris flirting with New Delhi in order to attract it to enter with the Europeans into a strategy based on mutual political trust, and to be a first building block for achieving French aspirations in establishing a multi-polar world in which Europe emerges from the shadow of the United States of America, in order to fulfill the ambitions of Charles de Gaulle, especially after it was proven to the French in In recent months, the "America First slogan" has not gone with Donald Trump, and Biden is nothing but a modified version of his predecessor, lacking in tweets, according to Le Drian's description.

After Le Drian communicated with his Indian counterpart, it was President Macron's turn to also communicate with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and extract from him a promise of joint action in the space of the Indian and Pacific oceans in exchange for French pledges to New Delhi to strengthen its strategic independence at the industrial and technological levels, and it may not be excluded from That's military technology.

It is clear that the French see that India represents the best alternative available to them to return to the balance of power in the region from the big door, given the demographic and economic weight of the Indian giant and its ambitions in the region, which may modify the balance of terror with China, without having to enter into a military clash to stop the advance of the dragon In the Indian and Pacific oceans.

Despite the assurances of US President Joe Biden in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly that his country “does not seek a new cold war,” in a clear reference to fears of a confrontation with China, and his allusion to Washington’s discomfort with seeing the world divided into blocks, his words may not be Persuasive to the French, to see him a reflection of their demands to redefine the strategic concepts of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at the upcoming Madrid summit.

Removing Europe from the American Parachute

Also, this may not deter Paris from its determination to crystallize an independent European strategic compass, when it takes over the presidency of the European Union early next year, and to continue its efforts to get Europe out of the American defense umbrella, and to consolidate the European Union’s foot in the international arena to be a global force.

The French complaint about American hegemony is not new. Rather, its roots go back to the years of General Charles de Gaulle's rule. A conviction has recently been established in the French interior that the United States puts its interests ahead of the interests of its allies, and that the French interests, and behind them the European ones, fall whenever it comes to American interests. Therefore, it is inevitable to proceed with the development of an independent European defense strategy, to ensure the protection of European interests in the short and long term, and to have the necessary military means to carry out its tasks.

India's attraction of a strategic partnership with the European Union, at a time when Paris is threatening to use its weight to influence the course of free trade negotiations between Australia and the European Union, accusing the third of the Union's partners - with an exchange volume of about 26 billion euros annually - of lack of reliability, may encourage the rest of European countries - Reluctance to express a clear position on developments in this case up to the moment - to join the Paris class. Inevitably, French diplomacy will have to work hard to convince European partners of the feasibility of France's alternatives.