Gauthier Delomez 1:54 p.m., September 22, 2021
The time has come for a geopolitical analysis of Australia's decision to separate, at the last moment, from its French ally in order to acquire nuclear submarines.
For Hervé Grandjean, spokesperson for the Ministry of the Armed Forces, this surprising decision is a great strategic mistake for Australia.
Is canceling the contract of the century with France such a good deal for Australia?
Quite the opposite for Hervé Grandjean, spokesperson for the Ministry of the Armed Forces.
As a reminder, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison ended the contract with France for 56 billion euros in submarines to turn to the United States.
French President Emmanuel Macron will meet with his American counterpart Joe Biden on Wednesday, government spokesman Gabriel Attal announced.
Beyond the loss of a pharaonic contract for France, Hervé Grandjean believes on Europe 1 that Australia's turnaround will be "extremely detrimental" to him to counter the power of China in Asia-Pacific.
The spokesperson for the Ministry of the Armed Forces recalls that this type of contract is part of the long term, and that negotiations had already advanced well between France and Australia.
"The Australians wanted to quickly equip themselves with submarines to counter the Chinese military threat which is increasingly significant in the Indo-Pacific zone," he explains on the
Europe Midi program
.
Additional delays and costs
The delivery date of the first French submarine was scheduled for 2030. Hervé Grandjean estimates that Australia will lose ten more years to receive new submarines, ie around 2040. "When we know that the China is building in three years the equivalent in tonnage of the French Navy, Australia's ten-year delay will be extremely detrimental to it, "assures Hervé Grandjean.
More than the issue of lead time, there are also the manufacturing costs.
"Ours were under control, in the order of a billion euros for a French Barracuda. For an American nuclear attack submarine, which the Australians are looking at, we are more in an order of magnitude by three times as much, or 3 billion euros, "he said, stressing that" it is not a good deal for the Australian taxpayer to have a navy with submarines later and more expensive " .
"This does not bode well" for Australia
The spokesperson for the Ministry of the Armed Forces is also surprised by this decision by the Australians. "On the day of the decision, the director of the submarine program in Australia wrote to us that he was very happy with the performance and progress of the project," he said. "We were ready to contract a new phase," said Hervé Grandjean.
The latter accuses Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison of "duplicity towards his French strategic partner, but also towards his own teams".
On arrival, Hervé Grandjean considers that the limited discussions with the United States and the United Kingdom "do not bode well for the continuation of the project" of Australia.
"The Australians are starting from scratch. Designing and building submarines is not done in two or three," he argues, before concluding: "Australia is now embarking on a bit of the unknown ".