The first race begins... hassle
The election for the president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which will elect the successor of Japanese Prime Minister Suga, is 9 days away from today (20th).
With the announcement of the presidential election on the 17th and the closing of candidate registration, the presidential election draw was also completed.
On the 8th news on the 17th, it was said that the voting will be made with the total of 383 members of the Liberal Democratic Party (Lower House + House of Representatives) and 383 votes allocated to the same number of party members. has decreased to 382, and the number of votes cast by party members has also decreased by one vote.
Therefore, the total number of votes was also adjusted from 766 to 764.
If no candidate receives more than half of the votes in the first ballot, a run-off ballot is held with the first and second place candidates, and the calculation formula is slightly different.
The votes of the members are the same with 382 votes, but only one vote is given in the name of the LDP branch of each of the 47 metropolitan municipalities.
So, the total number of votes in the second round is 429, and the proportion of votes by members is much higher than in the first round.
4 candidates... tendency?
First, let's look at the candidates again.
All four.
Taro Kono, Minister of Administrative Reform and Vaccine, Former LDP Chairman Fumio Kishida, former General Secretary Sanae Takaichi, and Acting Liberal Democratic Party Secretary Seiko Noda.
The Kono Administrative Reform Award is relatively well known to us. He served as foreign minister and defense minister under the Abe administration, and under the Suga administration, which took office in September last year, was responsible for administrative reforms such as 'removing seals' and removing restrictions on partitions. Recognized for its momentum, he is currently leading the vaccine policy. Minister Kono left a strong impression on us in July 2019, when he was Minister of Foreign Affairs, when Japan retaliated against export restrictions using the South Korean Supreme Court's ruling on compensation for forced labor. At that time, the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry came to the fore, but I still vividly remember that he called the Korean Ambassador to Japan Nam Gwan-pyo at the time and interrupted his remarks in the middle, saying, “Korea is rude” in a strong tone. Although his father, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yohei Kono, is the protagonist of the 'Kono Discourse', which acknowledged the Japanese government's intervention in the forced mobilization of comfort women, this proves that his son does not have the same 'to Korea' stance. There was also an interpretation that it reflected the perception that 'what to do (criticism of Korea) must be done' in the process of entering the core of the regime. When he became Minister of Defense after working as Foreign Minister, the Japanese government stopped the land-deployed Aegis Intercept System (Aegis Ashore) plan to be installed in Akita Prefecture in the north and Yamaguchi Prefecture in the south, and there was a backlash from the conservative side. . It seemed to reflect the concern that the first stage of the interceptor missile's propellant (booster) could fall on private houses near the launch base. Kono himself graduated from college (Georgetown University) in the United States and started his social life as a salaryman.It is known that they do not view Korea as unconditionally hostile because there is an image that they are bright, and they do not seem to be doing politics only for the benefit of the conservatives, as seen in the previous Aegis plan suspension incident, but in any case, it is a key politician of the LDP. It is clear that he is one of them, so it is unlikely that he will come close to Korea while undermining the basic fundamentals of the LDP.
Former Chairman Jeongjo Kishida is the person who signed the comfort women agreement between Korea and Japan in 2015 and held a press conference with Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se (then). At that time, former Prime Minister Abe had publicly acknowledged that he was his successor, but when he resigned last year due to ulcerative colitis, he supported Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga and suffered a hardship in the presidential election. Former Chairman Jeongjo Kishida himself is leading a faction (the Kishida faction, the Kungjihoe), which is considered a relatively moderate faction within the LDP. However, it seems right to view the basic stance of the Liberal Democratic Party as a conservative, who is also in favor of the constitutional revision (specifying the Self-Defense Forces in the constitution), which is the long-cherished wish of former Prime Minister Abe.
Former Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is a female candidate that has been gathering support from hardliners within the LDP as former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has expressed support. He is a far-right politician who has visited Yasukuni Shrine by constantly intervening in the 'comfort women and forced mobilization techniques' in history textbooks. Former Prime Minister Abe is known to have expressed his support for Takaichi's 'conservative policy' on the surface, but in fact, former secretary general Ishiba, a representative figure of 'ban Abe', expressed his support for Kono, and the possibility of winning the first round of voting is high. The purpose is to contain the heightened Kono. If Kono, with the support of former secretary general Ishiba on his back, gets a large number of party votes with the image of reform, and even local members of the House of Representatives who are planning the fall general election in mind, the election is highly likely to end in the first round of voting. Besides Kishida, we needed a candidate to erode Kono's votes. Once they block Kono's majority in the first round of voting, 1st and 2nd place will go to the runoff voting. Currently, former Chairman Jeongjo Kishida claims it is him, but former Prime Minister Abe is pushing Takaichi with the center of the largest faction (96 members) members of the Hosoda faction, whom he has a strong influence on. The intention of Candidates Kono and Kishida to contain the Liberal Democratic Party's generational change and reforms within the party by supporting candidate Takaichi is also strongly expressed.
Seiko Noda, acting secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party, declared a run for the presidency several times, but failed to gather 20 nominations from lawmakers.
Raising a child born through in vitro fertilization over the age of 50, sharing daily life with a blog, and opposing the current civil law system in Japan, which requires that people follow their husband's surname when married, are showing reform tendencies. Basically, we do not deviate from the Liberal Democratic Party line.
What is the initial pitch?
As the weekend passes, the results of investigations conducted by Japanese media against lawmakers and party members are coming out one after another.
First of all, in the parliamentary poll of 382 votes, former Chairman Jeongjo Kishida has the upper hand.
According to the Mainichi Shimbun today (20th), Kishida's support is over 30%, and Kono and Takaichi Kono are closely following them.
As the major factions that had gathered early last year with the support of Suga, this time with a "voluntary voting" policy has been established, and even among members of the House of Representatives, a merger is taking place that goes beyond factional walls. are supporting
Here, members of the Hosoda faction, the Takeshita faction (51 people), and even the Aso faction (53 people), to which the opposition candidate Kono belongs, are showing their support for Kishida.
However, the situation where about 20% of the legislative vote has not yet decided on a candidate is a variable.
The Yomiuri Shimbun surveyed 1,514 local party members for support candidates. Here, Candidate Kono is in first place with 41%, candidate Kishida in second place with 22%, and candidate Takaichi in third place with 20%. The response that they did not decide on a candidate to support was 11%, which is relatively low compared to the members of the National Assembly. It is noteworthy that candidate Kono, who expressed support for former secretary-general Ishiba, who is popular with local party members, did not win more than 50% of the support in this survey. In particular, the support of former Prime Minister Abe can be interpreted as playing a big role in the situation where third-place candidate Takaichi is closely following second-placed candidate Kishida by 2 percentage points. If Candidate Kono does not win overwhelmingly in the local party vote and stops at the 40% level, the scenario of finishing in the first round with a majority of the votes when the National Assembly votes are also added is highly likely not to be realized. In both the parliamentary vote and the regional vote, the strategy of former Prime Minister Abe, that is, the conservatives, to 'catch Kono's ankle' is winning.
The conservative Sankei Shimbun selected today's front page title as 'Possibility of a Runoff Voting'.
The National Assembly vote gave Takaichi a high weight, saying that Kono-Kishida-Takaichi was roughly divided into thirds.
In addition, Mainichi analyzed that more than half of the Hosoda faction, the largest faction, supported Takaichi, but Sankei analyzed 70%.
It seems almost certain that the Sankei Shimbun, which has been advocating for constitutional amendment and justification for Yasukuni worship throughout the Abe administration, and without filtering the far-right and conservative arguments in the historical conflict between Korea and Japan, has taken a stance in support of Takaichi in line with the movements of former Prime Minister Abe.
On the 17th, an advertisement for Takaichi's book was placed at the bottom of page 3, and although it is an advertisement for a book, in fact, it does not look much different from the election bulletin.
What are the future variables?
In accordance with the 'voluntary voting' policy of factions within the party, except for the Kishida faction, the movement of lawmakers 'getting together' seems to be extreme under the water this week. The LDP members of the House of Representatives must hold their elections within a month and a half at the most after the decision of the governor, or prime minister, is decided. The 'elders' of the LDP, including former Prime Minister Abe, who are pushing Takaichi, are checking the 'generational change theory' of candidates Kono and Kishida, but there is a strong current of 'this should not be the case' centering on the minority lawmakers. In short, it is a perception that it is difficult to win the general election, which is the main stage, as 'Prime Minister Takaichi'. First, attention is paid to how much parliamentary votes can be gathered by Candidate Kono's efforts to actively attract these reforming forces within the party through a generational change. To this end, it is necessary to increase the support of the party members, who came out in the low 40% range, and pressurize the party members from outside the house. Party members have such a will for reform, it is important to raise public opinion whether lawmakers should be involved in political struggles within the party.
Candidate Kishida is expected to focus on attacking the middle member of the House of Representatives who say 'Still, Kono is a bit...' This is because, although the support of the party members is 22%, which is 19%p behind Kono's candidate, anyway, if only Kono's election is prevented in the first ballot, the proportion of the members' votes will increase even more, and a comeback victory is possible. If Takaichi does not appear in the final vote in 3rd place, the calculation is that all the supporters of Takaichi, who have no choice but to check the Kono-Ishiba coalition, can be united with a 'Kishida vote'. Former Prime Minister Abe, who is pushing Takaichi, may have this strategy in mind in his head.