Many politicians in the Union have to fear that they will not win a direct mandate in the federal elections.

Even prominent candidates such as Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Economics Minister Peter Altmaier, Agriculture Minister Julia Klöckner, Minister of State for Culture Monika Grütters, Migration State Minister Annette Widmann-Mauz, the top candidate for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Philipp Amthor, and the domestic policy spokesman Mathias Middelberg of the analysis are in current projections Constituency forecast and election back.

Justus Bender

Editor in politics of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.

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The reason is the general weakness of the Union in the polls.

According to current projections, other Union politicians who are applying for the Bundestag for the first time will not win a direct mandate, such as the CDU General Secretary Paul Ziemiak, the Chairman of the Junge Union, Tilman Kuban, the CDU Federal Board member Serap Guler and the former President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution , Hans-Georg Maaßen.

Many prominent CDU politicians secured via state lists

According to the analysis firm Election, the popular parties CDU and CSU lose 29 direct mandates with a probability of at least 85 percent. Most of them are lost to the SPD, in Baden-Württemberg some to the Greens, in Saxony to the AfD. Dozens more have up to an 84 percent chance of loss.

Most of the prominent Union politicians are covered by their national lists. So you move into the Bundestag even without a direct mandate, but lose the nimbus of closeness to the people. The parliamentary manager of the Union parliamentary group, Michael Grosse-Brömer, who has already won his constituency three times, sees direct mandates as a “proof of being down-to-earth and close to the citizen”. He told the FAS: “There can be no first and second class MPs because the constituencies are so different. But those who can rely on a clear majority in their constituency are naturally proud and feel supported by the local people. "

Union MPs report that a direct mandate frees them up in their voting behavior and gives them more authority.

"If someone stands up in the parliamentary group who has a direct mandate, that already has a weight," says one MP.

The deputy chairman of the parliamentary group Carsten Linnemann, who has already won a direct mandate three times, says: "With a direct mandate you have greater independence than if you are dependent on the list." According to a study by the University of Mannheim, MPs from contested constituencies are less likely to trust themselves to deviate from the faction line if they were elected via the list.

FDP supporters often vote for the CDU or CSU with the first vote

The fact that many CDU politicians only lose the prestige of their direct mandate, but not their seat in parliament, is thanks to the CSU.

In the past, CDU list candidates were often left behind because the party won so many direct seats that the list did not take off.

This time, according to the polls, the CSU won many direct mandates despite the low second vote result.

These overhang seats are offset by additional seats for the other parties, which, according to current calculations, increases the Bundestag to around 800 members.

In order to meet the demand, candidates slip from the state lists of other parties.

The CDU also benefits from this because it appears as a union with the CSU, but the parties are separate.

In this way, the CSU prevents prominent CDU list candidates from going empty-handed.

The Union also benefits from another effect in the projections.

In the constituency forecast and election, they observe that Green supporters vote green more often than before with their first vote and not the SPD.

That weakens the left camp.

FDP supporters, on the other hand, often continue to vote for the CDU or CSU with the first vote.

In the past, AfD voters also often voted for the Union with the first vote, which has fallen sharply.

In previous elections, the analysis company Election was correct in 93 percent of all constituencies with its projection of the winner, with the company constituency forecast the accuracy was 96 percent.