After Washington evacuated its forces from Afghanistan
Russia is fueling fears of US credibility among its European partners
The summit between the Ukrainian and American presidents confirmed the partnership between the two countries.
Getty
During the call between Presidents Putin and Jinping, Beijing understood that Russia supports its position on the South China Sea and the Taiwan issue.
AFP
picture
I had bad feelings about how things would turn out in the European space.
I realize that many are celebrating the apparent success of the summit between Presidents Joe Biden and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky as an important step in setting the US relationship with the former Soviet Union on the right track.
But what raised my suspicions were the echoes that reminded me of 2008, shortly before the Russian incursion into Georgia.
Most Ukrainian government officials, as well as the public, conclude when they read the statement from the summit between the two presidents that the United States affirms its partnership and even its alliance with Ukraine.
This makes the ostensible commitment of US support improve Ukraine's position against the Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.
As for the Georgians in 2008, my concern here is that the "understanding gap" may reappear. The Ukrainians may overestimate the amount of US support, and take steps to get involved with Russia. And they are making the mistake that the Georgians made when they overestimated US support for them in 2008. Instead of support, Washington began criticizing Tbilisi and accusing it of "reckless behavior", and this happened after Moscow tested the amount of US support for Georgia and found it insufficient. Russia is now feeding fears of US credibility among its European partners after Washington evacuated its forces from Afghanistan. Will there be a similar incident in Ukraine intended to test American credibility and Western guarantees?
It may be important to reconsider the concerns of Russia's mobilization against Ukraine last spring. But the dominant narrative is that the war was defused at the time as a result of American pressure and signals sent by Washington, which led to the restraint of President Vladimir Putin's arm. Of course, there were American signals and pressure before the incursion into Georgia in 2008. So there is the question whether Moscow was deterred or acted according to its strategic logic. We in the United States are focused on avoiding dramatic changes. There was no major incursion into Ukraine, and since it did not, we describe what happened there as a "crisis averted," but those steps laid the foundations for calmer, more balanced moves.Similarly, when it came to Belarus, the fear was that Russia would swallow up or annex Belarus, whose president Alexander Lukashenko left Moscow after his last meeting with Putin to return to Minsk, and eventually said that no one would be able to “swallow” Belarus. In fact, there is no change in the relationship between Russia and Belarus except in the areas that will change irreversibly.
One of these areas can be seen in the formation of a unified energy field, and this will lead to the important area, which is a potential energy crisis in Europe. The United States had hoped that Ukraine would remain the corridor through which gas is transported to Europe. But Moscow is now engaged in the "natural gas chicken" game, and Moscow is not exporting any more gas through Ukraine than is stipulated in the agreement reached with Germany. Russia hopes that low gas reserves in Europe will make it resort to Nord Stream 2, which is now ready. At the same time, Gazprom and other Russian gas companies began exporting gas to Turkey and China. In view of the failure of US sanctions to stop the physical construction in Russia, the latter wants an energy crisis to occur in Europe and be caused by Washington.
And finally, we come to the relationship between China and Russia, in the recent call between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, where the dialogue between the two men frightened many Asian countries. China understood from Putin's call that Moscow supports China's position in the South China Sea and in Taiwan. The Russian Foreign Ministry recently clarified that Putin was expressing his call to external players "such as the United States or other NATO countries" not to get involved in the region, and to remain neutral about the advantages of competition. The message was clear, especially to India and Japan, and stated: If you are prevented from investing in Russia to avoid US sanctions, you risk further rapprochement between Russia and China, and this will harm your interests. As for Germany, which is applying pressure for Nord Stream pipelines, New Delhi and Japan, they may decide to retreat from economic pressures on Russia, especially with regard to Ukraine, so as not to bring Russia closer to China's strategic acceptance.American journalist Melinda Haring summed up the Biden administration's vision by saying: "The White House is focused on (Corona), China and climate change, and that is why it decided to ignore Russia," while Russia seems ready to send a clear signal that "I will not be ignored, Joe."
Nicholas Gvosdev ■ Editor writes for The National Interest
It may be important to reconsider the concerns of Russia's mobilization against Ukraine last spring. But the dominant narrative is that the war was defused at the time as a result of American pressure, which led to the restraint of President Vladimir Putin's arm.
Follow our latest local and sports news and the latest political and economic developments via Google news