New York Fed: US consumer inflation expectations continue to rise and hit a record high

　　China News Service, New York, September 13th. A monthly survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on the 13th showed that in August this year, American consumers' concerns about future inflation continued to intensify, setting a record high in 2013.

　　According to the August 2021 Consumer Expectations Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the median inflation expectations of American consumers for the next year rose from 4.8% in July to 5.2%, and the median inflation expectations for the next three years increased from 4.8% in July to 5.2%. In July, 3.7% rose to 4%, and both indicators hit record highs since the survey was launched in June 2013.

　　The survey shows that consumers' concerns about price increases are mainly concentrated in food, medical care and rent.

According to consumer expectations in August, food prices are expected to rise by 7.9% in the next year, an increase of 0.6% from the previous month; medical prices are expected to rise by 9.7% in the next year, and rental prices are expected to rise by 10%, both compared to the previous year. It was raised by 0.2% in January.

　　The survey found that consumers’ worries about unemployment have increased and their expectations for personal income growth have decreased.

In August, the expectation that the unemployment rate would rise in the next year rose from 31.7% in the previous month to 35%; the expectation that personal income would rise in the next year fell to 2.5% from 2.9% in the previous month. For the first time in recent months, there has been a decline.

However, household respondents are relatively more optimistic in terms of income, and their expectation that total household income is expected to increase in the coming year has risen to 3% from 2.9% in the previous month.

　　The Wall Street Journal said the monthly survey "potentially challenges" the Fed's confidence.

Earlier, many Fed officials said that inflationary pressures will gradually ease over time, and this survey shows that there is greater uncertainty about the inflation outlook in the United States.

　　According to the report, the Fed has been closely monitoring inflation trends, and its most popular inflation indicator is the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index released by the US Department of Commerce at the end of each month.

Currently, the latest value of this indicator is an increase of 4.2% year-on-year in July, which is much higher than the Fed’s official inflation target of 2%.

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