East-West Question丨Ge Hongliang: Will the return of the United States to Southeast Asia affect the cooperation between China and ASEAN?

(Essential question) Ge Hongliang: Will the return of the United States to Southeast Asia affect the cooperation between China and ASEAN?

　　China News Service, Nanning, September 12, title: Ge Hongliang: Will the return of the United States to Southeast Asia affect the cooperation between China and ASEAN?

　　China News Agency reporter Jiang Xuelin Yang Qiang Huang Yanmei

　　Following the US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman's visit to Indonesia, Cambodia and Thailand at the end of May and early June, the Biden administration seems to have accelerated the pace of returning to Southeast Asia again since July.

On July 14th, U.S. Secretary of State Blincoln attended the ASEAN-U.S. Foreign Ministers Special Meeting in the form of a video; from July 26, U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin visited Singapore, Vietnam and the Philippines successively; in August, U.S. Vice President Harris visited Singapore and Vietnam.

In response to the retreat of Southeast Asian countries' enthusiasm for the United States and the spread of disappointment, the pace of the Biden administration's return to Southeast Asia has accelerated.

The picture shows the scene of the 18th China-ASEAN Expo.

Photo by Lin Jieqi

　　At the opening of the 18th China-ASEAN Expo, how will China-ASEAN cooperate in the context of the epidemic in the century, the changes in a century, and the accelerated return of the United States?

What will be the impact of the return of the United States?

In response to this, Ge Hongliang, a senior researcher at the Chahar Society of China and deputy dean of the ASEAN College of Guangxi University for Nationalities, said in an exclusive interview with the China News Service “Question of East and West” column that the cooperation between China and ASEAN and the entire region centered on ASEAN has been increasing. With the gradual progress in the past, this cooperation has become a strong driving force for regional development.

What does it mean for the United States to return to Southeast Asia?

Reporter from China News Service: Recently, high-ranking US officials have visited Southeast Asia frequently. Is their strategic purpose to strengthen cooperation with Southeast Asia, or is it "Xiangzhuang's sword dance intention in Peigong"?

Ge Hongliang: The

Biden administration returned to Southeast Asia

amid

widespread suspicion.

Through a series of visits by senior officials, the United States has shown to the outside world that Washington is accelerating its return to Southeast Asia.

During the four years of Trump's administration, the relationship between the United States and Southeast Asia has regressed to varying degrees. Now the U.S. government has increased its emphasis on Southeast Asia.

The United States’ return to Southeast Asia is intended to serve the United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy, and this strategy is to serve the United States’ regional hegemony.

Data map: National Mall in Washington, USA.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong

　　The United States believes that China has affected its regional hegemony.

Therefore, whether it is Harris, Brinken, or Deputy Secretary of State Sherman, they actually mentioned China more or less when they visited Southeast Asia.

In particular, Harris visited Singapore and Vietnam and expressed the hope that Southeast Asian countries will increase pressure on China in his speech.

We can see that following the visit of these senior officials to Southeast Asia, the United States has already stated its relevant policies in Southeast Asia, and their intention is clearly to target China.

China News Service: What does the strengthening of the US influence in Southeast Asia mean for the region?

Ge Hongliang:

The strengthening of US influence in Southeast Asia is a kind of pressure on ASEAN.

In recent years, Southeast Asian countries have actually always emphasized, especially Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong mentioned in many speeches that Southeast Asian countries do not want to choose sides between China and the United States.

　　Whether it is Lee Hsien Loong or the leaders of Vietnam, the Southeast Asian countries have actually expressed a very clear attitude after their talks with Harris. They are unwilling to "choose sides" and unwilling to follow one big country to oppose another big country.

In this case, the pressure from the United States is equivalent to forcing Southeast Asian countries to "choose sides." Although the United States did not verbally say it, it actually conveyed its true intentions. Therefore, Southeast Asian countries are all worried about this.

The data picture shows the Haicang Container Terminal of Xiamen Port.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Wang Dongming

　　The United States returned to Southeast Asia for the purpose of disrupting cooperation between China and ASEAN.

But we can see that the cooperation between China and ASEAN has been advancing steadily in recent years.

Especially under the epidemic situation, the advancement of China-ASEAN cooperation has become a driving force for regional development.

In 2020, under the promotion of ASEAN, the relevant parties of cooperation signed the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement), and the world's largest and most potential free trade area was born.

China-ASEAN cooperation is escalating

Reporter from China News Service: This year marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of dialogue relations between China and ASEAN. In the past 30 years, what have been gained from cooperation and exchanges between China and ASEAN?

Ge Hongliang:

In July 1991, China and ASEAN established a dialogue relationship.

Over the past 30 years, bilateral cooperation relations have shown a gradual escalation trend.

In 1991, the two sides established a dialogue relationship. In 1996, China formally became a comprehensive dialogue partner of ASEAN. In 2003, China established a strategic partnership with ASEAN.

The gradual escalation of the strategic relationship between China and ASEAN has promoted the escalation of dialogue and cooperation between the two sides.

　　Over the past 30 years, China and ASEAN have established a three-dimensional dialogue mechanism at all levels, including leaders, ministers, and senior officials, to carry out strategic communication on major issues in a timely manner and build a solid political foundation for the development of bilateral relations.

The bilateral trade volume jumped from less than 8 billion U.S. dollars to 684.6 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of more than 80 times.

The number of personnel exchanges exceeded 65 million in 2019.

　　These 30 years of cooperation are undoubtedly mutually beneficial and win-win.

As far as ASEAN is concerned, cooperation with China has enabled ASEAN’s development to receive tremendous support from China.

Especially after the Asian financial crisis, ASEAN countries saw China's responsible image in regional affairs and saw the opportunities China's development brought to Southeast Asia.

At the 17th China-ASEAN Expo, exhibitors showed customers a safe buckle ornament.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Guanyan

　　After China and ASEAN established dialogue relations, especially after China and ASEAN initiated free trade zone consultations, the rapid development of China's economy has provided Southeast Asia with a very large momentum for development.

The impact of bilateral cooperation on ASEAN countries is not only macroscopic. Specifically, some post-developed countries in Southeast Asia are relatively poor, such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar in the Indochina Peninsula. They have gained a lot from their cooperation with China. Capital and technology from China.

Whether it was cooperation in the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area at the beginning or in the Lancang-Mekong cooperation, it was very beneficial to the balanced development of these countries and the ASEAN as a whole.

　　The political gains of ASEAN in its cooperation with China can be embodied in a term, "ASEAN's central position."

China was the first to express its support for ASEAN’s central position in regional cooperation.

As the first country to sign and accede to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, China is also the first country to establish a strategic partnership between ASEAN and its outsiders.

In recent years, ASEAN has played a huge role in the regional multilateral framework, and China's support is crucial.

　　As far as China is concerned, ASEAN, as a very important dialogue partner, is an important platform for China's early participation in multilateral affairs, multilateral organizations, and multilateral dialogue.

At the economic level, ASEAN surpassed the European Union last year and became China's largest trading partner.

This is another breakthrough that ASEAN has achieved after surpassing the United States in 2019 to become China's second largest trading partner.

In the first half of this year, the total trade value between China and ASEAN was 410.75 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 38.2%.

The economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN maintains a momentum of rapid development.

In the next 30 years, China and ASEAN will share a common destiny

China News Agency reporter: Will the cooperation between China and ASEAN be stronger in the next 30 years?

Ge Hongliang:

In the past 30 years, the relationship between China and ASEAN has shown a common feature in terms of politics, economy and trade, and even humanities, that is, the scale has gradually expanded.

In the following, the cooperation between China and ASEAN will usher in a stronger and more magnificent 30 years.

Data map: The 17th China-ASEAN Expo.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Guanyan

　　Chinese President Xi Jinping drew a blueprint and pointed out the direction for the development of China-ASEAN relations on many occasions-

　　In October 2013, Xi Jinping delivered an important speech at the Indonesian National Assembly, proposing that he is willing to work with ASEAN countries to build the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and jointly build a closer China-ASEAN community with a shared future.

　　In November 2020, at the opening ceremony of the 17th China-ASEAN Expo and the China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit, Xi Jinping clearly put forward the “four enhancements” initiative, calling for a closer China-ASEAN community with a shared future. All circles sparked heated discussions.

　　At the political level, after 30 years of continuous improvement in political mutual trust, China and ASEAN countries are expected to discuss the signing of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation in the future.

　　At the economic level, in October 2019, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Upgrade "Protocol" fully took effect.

Taking this as a starting point, there is room for improvement in the quality and level of trade and investment between the two sides.

　　At the security level, China-ASEAN security cooperation is also very important. The two sides will jointly promote dialogue in the security field and enhance cooperation in areas such as information sharing.

　　In fact, the cooperation between China and ASEAN is a process of mutual need.

In the next 30 years, China and ASEAN will join hands to forge a closer community of shared future and have a greater impact on world development.

(over)

About the interviewee:

　　Ge Hongliang, Ph.D., is currently the Deputy Dean of the ASEAN College of Guangxi University for Nationalities, the director of the China-ASEAN Maritime Safety Research Center, and a senior researcher at the Chahar Society of China. He has long focused on ocean issues and Asia-Pacific international relations, Southeast Asian regional and country issues. direction.