Containment is also a corner?

Living cornered by an invisible exit September 8 16:04

“Again ...” As

the fight against the new coronavirus continues for a long time, every time the infection spreads, citizens raise concerns and concerns.

Even in China, where it was said that "one person wins", the economy recovered quickly with strict infection control measures.

And even in Thailand, Southeast Asia, where infection control was effective and was once regarded as an "honor student".

Even in countries that have been working on thorough containment of infections, so to speak, "Zero Corona", more and more people are being cornered.

(Keita Kage, Directorate-General of Asia / Ryoto Iga, Directorate-General of China)

Dispose of more than 100 people due to spread of infection

"Responsibility for infection prevention and control was not fulfilled." In

August, the deputy mayor of Nanjing and airport personnel were punished for re-spreading the infection, and they neglected to take measures. As it was, civil servants were punished one after another all over the country.

According to local media, there are more than 100 people.

The cause of this re-expansion of the infection was the infection of the Delta strain by a worker in charge of international flights at the airport in Nanjing in late July, after which the infection spread to 18 provinces and autonomous regions.

At one point, the number of people infected in the city per day exceeded 100 for the first time in about half a year.

The government's sense of crisis coincided with the time when many people moved during the summer tourist season.

In fact, an outbreak occurred among people who visited Zhangjiajie, one of China's most scenic spots, and after tourists returned to their hometowns, the infection spread throughout the country.

Quarantine without close contact

The government immediately strengthened measures.

In addition to blocking the area where the infected people came out and making it impossible to enter and exit in principle, we conducted PCR tests on the scale of millions of people to identify the risks.

People visiting infected cities such as Zhangjiajie for sightseeing or business trips were required to be quarantined at home for 14 days, regardless of whether they had close contact with the infected.

Some Japanese expatriates said that the whole family couldn't get out of the room.

In addition, local governments in each region urged citizens to refrain from unnecessary and unurgent business trips and trips.

In Beijing, before the new semester of elementary and junior high school starting in September, movement restrictions were also imposed, such as instructing children and parents not to leave the city after August 15.

Vaccination is progressing in China as well, and the government says that more than 960 million people have already been vaccinated (as of September 6).

Still, my hands are not loosened.

"See you again ..." Lamentation of the tourism industry

Under the policy of Zero Corona, China has suppressed infections, normalized economic activities, and quickly led to economic recovery.

This time, about a month later, the number of people infected in the city in the country turned to zero, and the government said that the spread of the infection had subsided.

However, the measures taken each time the infection spreads are beginning to feel exhausted.

In mid-August, in Beijing, we couldn't see group guests from the old palace, which is a World Heritage Site, and other tourist destinations, which would normally be abundant every year.

We heard mourning voices from souvenir shops and restaurants that were supposed to be in the tourist season.

A woman from a souvenir shop

"In July, I had a daily sales of RMB 2000 (about 34,000 yen), but there are days when I don't have any. What should I do if I want to close the shop every day in the red? do not know"

A man at a restaurant

"I feel like I'm back, but I can't help it."

This summer's tourists were expected to recover compared to last year, and I was very disappointed.

Zero Corona, at the corner?

Looking at the actual economic statistics released, the index showing consumption trends was negative in July compared to the previous month.

In addition, the index showing business sentiment in the non-manufacturing industry was 47.5 in August, falling below the milestone of "50", which indicates that the economy is shrinking, for the first time in about a year and a half.

Under these circumstances, when an infectious disease specialist posted on SNS, "The world needs to coexist with viruses. At the same time as returning to normal life, we must protect citizens from the fear of viruses." There was an opinion of support for whether to continue.

In China, the Winter Olympics will be held in Beijing next February, and there will also be a five-year party convention in the fall, where the personnel of the Communist Party leadership will be held.

For that reason, it seems that the government's policy of promoting the containment of infections as a track record will not be changed immediately, but in reality, there are voices of anxiety and exhaustion.

Fall from "honor student"

Looking at Southeast Asia, it turns out that maintaining a zero corona policy is not easy.

Last year, Thailand and Vietnam were also called "honor students of countermeasures" because they suppressed the spread of infection by strict border measures and restrictions on economic activities.

Last year, the number of infected people per day continued to be in the single digits.

However, the situation has changed completely since spring.

Outbreaks have occurred among foreign workers in Thailand, and Delta strains have spread, causing a surge in infections in just a few months.

From the end of June, eating and drinking in restaurants was banned in Bangkok and other places, and after that, a curfew was issued to virtually lock down.

Still, the number of infected people exceeds 20,000 every day in August, and the number of deaths per day exceeds 200.

The limit of patience approaching

Domestic consumption is sluggish in addition to the tourism industry.

Thailand's economic growth rate fell to a record minus 6.1% last year, but some experts have begun to say that it could continue to grow negatively.

The owner of a furniture store, whose sales have dropped by half since last year, laments, "The economy is too bad. I think this situation will continue until next year."

Anti-government protests are intensifying as lockdowns do not stop the spread of the infection.

It seems that the patience of the people is approaching its limit.

Even in Vietnam, the number of infected people continues to exceed 10,000, and the situation is such that even the military is dispatched to strictly prohibit going out.

Risk cannot be reduced to zero

Common backgrounds for the fall of "honor students" are the infectivity of the Delta strain and the delay in vaccination (percentage of people who completed vaccination: Thailand 11.1%, Vietnam 2.7%, Our World in Data September 7). (At the time of date update), etc.

In Thailand, outbreaks of outbreaks occurred in a limited number of places where business continuity was permitted even as a countermeasure against zero corona, and this caused the infection to spread at once.

Especially in factories, outbreaks occurred in about 880 places.

Thailand is the largest concentration of the automobile industry in Southeast Asia, and it is believed that "the government wanted to avoid shutting down factories in order to maintain exports" (a local executive of a major Japanese manufacturer).

Professor Villa Sak, an adviser to the Thai Ministry of Public Health's Corona Countermeasures, said, "It is difficult to take measures against infection on our own in factories that cannot afford it, such as small and medium-sized enterprises. The government did not pay attention to factory workers at the beginning. , The vaccination was delayed and the infection spread. "He pointed out that the infection spread due to work, eating, and moving in a dense state.

It is impossible to completely eliminate economic activity, but it does not eliminate the risk of infection.

The difficulty of countermeasures is highlighted again.

The impact on the world

The "limit" of Zero Corona that has come into view requires caution in the aftermath.

The stagnation of China, the world's second-largest economy, will affect the entire world economy, and the shutdown of factories in Southeast Asia has already begun to affect global automobile production.

Toyota Motor Corp. has just announced that global production in September will be reduced by about 40% from the plan due to delays in parts procurement in Southeast Asia.

In areas where the infection is spreading in Vietnam, as a condition for continuing operations, employees are required to stay overnight on the premises instead of moving from the factories, so many factories cannot respond and operations are suspended. We are being forced to cut production.

This has hindered automakers from procuring parts.

With the progress of globalization and the expansion of the supply chain = supply network, the international economic ties are becoming stronger and stronger, and the impact of the spread of infection is not limited to one country.

The issues of countermeasures in each country are very important for Japan as well.

Keita Kage

,

Directorate-General of Asia

Joined in

2005 In

charge of financial and financial coverage at the Ministry of Economic Affairs,

Directorate-General of Asia since last summer

China General Administration of reporters

Iga Akirahito

2006 He joined

the Sendai station Okinawa stations

through the economic part

the current affiliation from last year