The surprise was big after the triumph on RTL last Sunday: Olaf Scholz had "won" the debate. Annalena Baerbock landed in second place, Armin Laschet in third place. But Scholz was not, as it was said in the debriefing, "drizzled to himself" while Armin Laschet was aggressive and Annalena Baerbock dealt against her two opponents, which affects the verdict, not only for her supporters would have to? Is it enough if Scholz makes the diamond? If you believe the Forsa Institute's quick poll, it was like this: 36 percent for Scholz, 30 percent for Baerbock, 25 percent for Laschet. But how does such a result come about that is supposedly representative and silences everyone,because they take the numbers at face value? What a participant in the survey tells us about this raises questions.

Survey in two rounds

Michael Hanfeld

responsible editor for features online and "media".

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The participants in the online survey were asked twice to vote on the three candidates for chancellor.

Forsa had announced it to them three days before the Triell in a preparatory mail.

You should give your assessment once towards the middle of the RTL broadcast and then at the end.

Our informant was present at the first round, he stated that he saw Armin Laschet ahead in the categories asked - credibility, likelihood, comprehensibility.

After the question and answer session, which was announced with an acoustic signal, a message appeared on our participant's screen that he was scheduled for the second interview on the waiting list.

Then it was said that he should be patient.

Then - nothing happened.

No questions and - thank you

No acoustic signal, no questions. Ten minutes after the end of the quick poll, Forsa thanked our participant for participating. The next day, the institute sent a message saying: “Thank you very much for agreeing to rate the triad of the Chancellor candidates on RTL and n-tv for us yesterday evening. Since almost everyone of you logged in on time to answer our questions, the results were already available shortly after the broadcast ended and could be published. Due to the very high number of participants, there were occasionally delays in sending the answers or, in exceptional cases, error messages - in these cases we would like to thank you in particular for your patience and understanding. ”Patience and understanding? The participant's voice,who voted for Armin Laschet and told us about his experience was not counted. Was he the only one? How can the survey still be representative despite the "exceptional cases" and "error messages" that Forsa admits? Did the responses from participants in the first round have an impact on whether they were admitted to the second? Was there a pre-sorting?

Has it been pre-sorted?

There wasn't, says Peter Matuschek, Head of Political and Social Research at Forsa, when asked: "The answers from the first round of the survey had no effect on participation in the second survey." And why was someone then kicked out?

"Due to the very high number of participants, technical difficulties arose in some individual cases, but less than one percent of the participants were affected, so that an influence on the results of the survey is excluded."