Time is running out: the last American troops must have cleared the Afghan capital's airport and completed their evacuation operation by 11:59 p.m. local time on Tuesday.

This is what the agreement between Washington and the new rulers in Kabul provides.

Lorenz Hemicker

Editor in politics

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The trigger is dangerous. US President Joe Biden warned on Sunday, less than 72 hours before the final withdrawal, of new terrorist attacks on the airport. On Thursday at the gates of Hamid Karzei International Airport, over 180 people were killed, including 13 American soldiers, in a suicide attack accused by the Islamic State (IS). The US military reportedly responded with a drone attack on IS planners in Nangarhar province. In addition, another American drone attack struck a vehicle loaded with explosives near Kabul airport. According to American information, at least five rockets were fired at the airport on Monday, at least some of which are said to have been intercepted by a defense system.There were no reports of victims.

Despite the lack of time and the dangers, experts on the American military consider the abrupt withdrawal of thousands of US soldiers and the abandonment of the airport to be a demanding, but nonetheless normal military operation, as far as can be said after the lightning victory of the Taliban. It is said that comparisons with Saigon's 1975 abandonment are “pure populism”. Back then, the American military had to give up the city's airport when North Vietnamese artillery shells hit the airport runways. A picture of a small helicopter that landed on the elevator of an apartment building and that two dozen Vietnamese tried to climb on became a symbol of the United States' failure in the Vietnam War. As far as the escape is concerned, similar pictures of Kabul airport may have been taken:The experts assure that the withdrawal should now proceed in a much more orderly manner.

Because even if the exact schedule is kept under lock and key for security reasons, according to the military experts, the withdrawal follows a scheme that should not be endangered by any acts of war. The former opponent cooperates to a certain extent. He is fighting against IS. And in addition to suicide attacks and rockets, the terrorist militia itself has at best the option of interfering with the withdrawal for a short time - but not hindering it permanently.

The military withdrawal from a site such as Kabul Airport usually begins with military personnel who are required for the long-term operation of the airport and for the evacuation operation. This phase began when the evacuation operation was still in full swing. Last week Tuesday a Pentagon spokesman announced that "several hundred" of the up to 5800 soldiers at the airport had already been withdrawn. This included employees in the central services and specialists for maintenance work. At the same time, the removal of material has been in full swing for days. However, the fact that at least 4,000 American soldiers were apparently still deployed in Kabul by the weekend suggests that the American armed forces have tried toto maintain operations at the airport and to enable the evacuation of Kabul, which has now been completed, for as long as possible.

The return of the remaining forces will presumably be subordinate to the premise of maintaining the outer security ring of the airport for as long as possible with one's own forces.

It is fundamental for the protection of soldiers both on the airport premises and for the departing military transporters.

The exact order of the departing troops follows the requirements on site.

The proportion of combat-capable troops increases the more soldiers leave the country.

The security forces themselves should only leave the country in the last phase.

Handover to long-term opponents

It is unclear whether the last troops will leave the airport in military transports or, as in Vietnam, with helicopters. However, in contrast to the Vietnam War in Afghanistan, both the Taliban and the Americans are likely to have an interest in an orderly handover of the last bit of Western military control.

Experts assume that the coordination for the handover phase is already underway between diplomats, secret services, special forces and the Taliban. It is therefore conceivable that the American infantrymen would hand over their last positions directly to the Taliban fighters who fought them for years in order to prevent the intrusion of both terrorists and people who want to flee. The launch of the last military transporters should also be monitored from the air, combined with the constant option of responding to possible incidents with close air support and / or the use of American special forces still on the ground who will return later. If any.