A researcher confirms that the danger is still “imminent”
India is not ready to face another wave of the “Corona” outbreak
A ward for COVID-19 patients in an Indian government hospital.
Reuters
More than 400 million Indians still do not have antibodies to prevent infection with the virus.
Reuters
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Memories of the devastating second wave of the coronavirus outbreak are slowly receding.
The pandemic is no longer making headlines, and malls and mountain resorts are crowded with shoppers and tourists.
Economic activity has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels, as it was before the second wave last March.
In fact, as it was then, many Indians seem to believe that the worst of the pandemic is past.
Indian researcher Mihir Sharma pointed out, in a report published by Bloomberg News Agency, that we cannot be certain of all this.
Epidemiological estimates, which predicted the second wave, expected that another weaker wave might strike India this month, and the country is not prepared for that at all.
Sharma added that part of the reason for the overconfidence is the destructive nature of the second wave of the outbreak in India.
The widespread outbreak of infections has exposed a large segment of Indians to the virus, who must now have some degree of immunity.
But the simple fact is that we still don't know enough about the second wave, to make easy predictions about the third.
Sharma explained that all Indians have is a series of MRC scans showing how many Indians have antibodies to the virus.
The council conducted four surveys of this kind, covering 29,000 people in 700 villages in 21 of India's 28 states.
The results of the fourth survey, which was conducted during the months of last June and July, showed that two-thirds of Indians were infected with the virus, which is an increase from 24 percent during the months of last December and January.
Although this is a large percentage, it means that 400 million Indians still do not have antibodies.
A third or fourth wave of the outbreak may lead to a significant increase in the death toll from the virus.
No death count
What makes matters worse, Sharma said, is that there is, as yet, no definitive statistic for the number of Indians who have died from the virus.
The federal government says the death toll is less than half a million.
Some estimates indicate that the true number could range between two and three million.
Other estimates include a larger number.
Economists at the Center for International Development estimated that between 3.4 million and 4.7 million additional deaths were recorded in India during the pandemic period, although not all deaths were directly related to the Corona virus.
Some states have hidden the number of deaths in order to enhance their reputation as states that are resistant to the “Corona” virus.
This poses a problem, Sharma says, because without a clear view of how bad the second wave will be, and which states are most affected, we won't be able to know what the third wave will be like.
A key lesson for India's second wave is the need to strengthen local healthcare systems before cases spike, or else the systems will easily come under strain.
Without knowing who has been affected in the past, we will not be able to know where and who may be at greater risk in the coming period.
Then there is the faltering vaccination programme. A ban on the export of vaccines manufactured in India for months has left the rest of the emerging world struggling to cope with the threat of the Delta strain of the virus.
Sharma stressed that this did not help India at all, as the government tried to pressure vaccine manufacturers to provide vaccine doses at a cheap cost.
In order to ensure that companies could invest in more productivity, the government allowed companies to sell vaccines to the private sector at higher prices.
Limit margins
Perhaps this strategy would have worked if the private healthcare sector had had any incentive to strengthen the vaccine distribution system.
Instead, the government restricted hospitals' margins, so that only the largest companies in the private sector became interested.
On the other hand, state governments constantly complain that they do not have enough vaccines to distribute themselves.
Vaccine supply is another problem, as mRNA-based vaccines, such as Pfizer and Moderna, appear to be more effective against the Delta strain than other vaccines.
But the government initially ignored Pfizer's vaccine, and then the company bargained over items about compensation, which most other countries already signed months ago.
This means that India has not accepted any of the 110 million doses shipped by the United States of America to emerging countries.
Millions of doses of the Moderna vaccine destined for India were suspended last July.
It is reported that when Indian and American officials met months ago, they announced plans to finance the manufacture of a Johnson & Johnson vaccine in India.
No clear progress has been made since then.
Sharma concluded his report that the important lesson drawn from the second wave, when the world joined forces to send oxygen and medicines to India, is that no country, even if it is as big as India, can deal with the pandemic alone, and that the slow vaccination efforts in India, and renewed weakness In the face of the Corona virus, they are the price of this failure that we must learn.
The results of the fourth survey, conducted during the months of last June and July, showed that two-thirds of Indians were infected with the virus.
The important lesson learned from the second wave, when the world joined forces to send oxygen and medicine to India, is that no country, even if it is as big as India, can deal with the “pandemic” alone.
There is, as yet, no definitive count of the number of Indians who have died from the virus. The federal government says the death toll is less than half a million. Some estimates indicate that the true number could range between two and three million.
• All the Indians have is a series of MRC scans showing how many Indians have antibodies to the virus. The council conducted four such surveys, covering 29,000 people in 700 villages in 21 states.
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