Angela Merkel is leaving, but the CDU remains: this was so far the most likely scenario for the German general elections on 26 September.

But a small political revolution occurred within a month of this deadline.

For the first time in 15 years, the Social Democrats of the SPD (23%) are ahead of the conservatives of the CDU (22%) in the latest polls.

"It is surprising because the SPD has stagnated around or below 20% in the voting intentions at the national level for ten years", underlines Thomas Poguntke, political scientist at the University of Düsseldorf, contacted by France 24.

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At the same time, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has fallen by nearly ten points in voting intentions since mid-July.

The polls are certainly not gospel words, "but, in this case, they confirm a trend observed for several weeks in the campaign, namely the difficulties of the conservative candidate", assures Klaus Schubert, political scientist at the Institute. of political research at the University of Münster, contacted by France 24.

Armin Laschet, the candidate who, on the right, wants to be chancellor in place of Merkel, seems not to come out of it.

In particular, he accumulated failures during the catastrophic floods in Germany that occurred in mid-July.

One image in particular goes very badly with the Germans: that of an almost hilarious Armin Laschet behind Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier who, in a serious tone, delivers a speech on the destruction caused by the rains.

This laughter of Armin Laschet as he visits a region hit by catastrophic floods has cost the CDU candidate dearly politically.

Marius Becker, AFP

But that's not all. It also appears "as particularly impractical in its positions and often remains very vague", underlines Klaus Schubert. In a recent televised debate with the two other main candidates - Olaf Scholz for the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Annalena Baerbock for the Greens - he was the only one who did not want to say where he would go for his first official trip as chancellor. "Yet it is an easy and classic question", notes Klaus Schubert.

But he is not the only one responsible for his misfortunes.

The news did not help him.

The floods, the pandemic or the return to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan are all issues allowing someone who already exercises political responsibilities to put himself forward.

And that's what Olaf Scholz did.

"As Minister of Finance, he was able to appear as the savior by promising, for example, to release the necessary funds for the victims of the floods or not to look at the expense to overcome the health crisis", specifies Klaus Schubert.

What is Angela Merkel playing?

The CDU also seems to support him reluctantly and gives the impression "of not knowing how to convey the ideas of the party by this candidate", notes Wolfgang Schroeder, political scientist at the Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (Center for Scientific Research in Berlin), contacted by France 24.

Armin Laschet said it himself: "You cannot run a campaign alone."

Even Angela Merkel has been very quiet about her support for her party's candidate.

"The lack of involvement of the Chancellor, who could have given Armin Laschet a bit of her popularity, remains for me one of the great mysteries of this campaign", remarks Stefan Marschall, political scientist at the university from Düsseldorf, contacted by France 24.

And that's without taking into account the voices on the right which set him up in the wheels.

Markus Söder, the boss of the Bavarian CSU, "does not miss an opportunity to stress that he would have done better than Armin Laschet", underlines Thomas Poguntke.

For this political scientist, this is one of the main weak points of the CDU candidate's campaign: "He absolutely failed to surround himself with a team of his own, which means that everything right the world seems to be playing for itself. "

Faced with this disunity of the Christian Democrats, the SPD "has managed the feat of appearing as a party in close rank behind its candidate who, in addition, is one of the tenors of the current government", notes Stefan Marschall.

The apocalyptic painting

Armin Laschet hoped to pass for the man of continuity after Angela Merkel, but it is ultimately "Olaf Scholz who appears as the natural dolphin of the outgoing chancellor", assures Wolfgang Schroeder, of the Center for Scientific Research in Berlin.

"He has the same political pragmatism, also knows how to be very flexible and has real experience on the international scene", summarizes this political scientist.

Armin Laschet has very little time left to raise the bar if he wants to avoid a defeat at the CDU in the next elections.

The most likely is "that the conservatives play the card of the doomsday scenario by portraying a bleak future if the left came to power," said Wolfgang Schroeder.

It is difficult to say if such a strategy can work.

The Germans, on the one hand, can be sensitive to such a speech because "they are politically rather conservative and do not like experiments in the government too much", judges Stefan Marschall, of the University of Düsseldorf.

But on the other hand, the "apocalyptic" argument is just as likely to fail because for many, Olaf Scholz is not scary because "he symbolizes more continuity than any candidate since he is already in government" , says Klaus Schubert of the University of Münster.

And if Armin Laschet does not manage to go up the slope, an unprecedented scenario at the federal level is more and more discussed in Germany: the possibility of a government with three parties.

But with or without the CDU?

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