British analyst Therese Raphael:
Two dilemmas await Britain and Europe after the fall of Kabul
British forces in Afghanistan are of limited capacity.
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US forces failed to organize an orderly withdrawal from Afghanistan.
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The rapid fall of Afghanistan to the "Taliban" has raised a lot of controversy over this event, which is expected to have many repercussions around the world.
For the United Kingdom and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), British analyst Therese Raphael says that it involves two basic dilemmas: one will be urgent and immediate, while the other will have long-term effects.
In an opinion article published by Bloomberg News, Rafael pointed out that the immediate dilemma is to develop a policy for Afghans seeking asylum.
boredom and resentment
She pointed out that despite the monitoring of many calls from lawmakers and the media to provide more support, the asylum policy has been a controversial political issue in both the United Kingdom and Europe for years, as it does not take much time for the magnanimity that appears at the beginning of any humanitarian crisis to turn. To boredom and indifference, even to resentment.
During the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was praised abroad, but she faced sharp criticism at home for her adoption of the open door policy, during which more than a million refugees were accepted, most of them from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
This not only reduced her party's popularity, but also led to a border crisis within the European Union that continues to have repercussions today.
The refugee crisis also formed the basis for a major pillar of the 2016 Brexit campaign.
At the current stage, neither Europe nor Britain wants the same thing to happen again.
Greece, which was on the front lines of accepting refugees in 2015, has also made clear that it does not want to become a gateway for Afghans fleeing the Taliban.
France is also among the countries that are cautious.
President Emmanuel Macron, who is fighting a heated presidential election campaign, last Monday, spoke of the need to protect against "large flows of irregular migration".
Merkel, who will soon leave office, has been more generous, with reports indicating she supports the evacuation of up to 10,000 Afghans.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson reiterated on Wednesday his country's "enduring" commitment to the people of Afghanistan, and said that the kingdom would receive 20,000 refugees.
He called for international cooperation to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.
He told an emergency session of Parliament that his government's focus is currently on evacuating the British and supporting local staff, pointing out that the situation has now "stabilised" and that the Taliban movement is not impeding the ongoing efforts.
At the same time, he warned that a crisis would worsen under the rule of the Taliban, and called for a new UN-led mission to the region.
As for the longer-term challenge, Raphael sees it, how Britain and Europe have adapted to the security relationship with the United States, which has changed dramatically.
After former President Donald Trump publicly questioned the feasibility of the alliance, it seemed that the election of Joe Biden would mark the beginning of a return to cooperation, but in fact this did not happen.
Raphael added that although one could argue about the cost of such interventions, the US desire to lead some coalition to places like Afghanistan or Iraq sent a message to the world's rogue regimes that there is a sentinel, in one form or another, and that the US is keen to Its interests are widespread.
Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks summed it up by saying that "this era is over."
Raphael added that the withdrawal from Afghanistan - not only in the decision but in the way it was implemented and defended by Biden - reflects a sharp decline in US influence, and points to a future without peacekeeping or nation-building efforts in the long term.
Raphael stressed that this is a fact that must be taken into account in the foreign policy of Britain and its other NATO allies.
naive review
Ironically, last March the UK completed a years-long review of its foreign and security strategy.
The 114-page report briefly touched on Afghanistan, saying: "We will continue to support stability in Afghanistan within the framework of a broader coalition," which later appeared to be naive.
The British Defense Secretary, Ben Wallace, stated that the United Kingdom would have preferred the continuation of the Afghanistan mission.
It was said that Turkey and Italy were also keen on this, but there was a split between the US allies in NATO.
There is little a smaller coalition can do without American air support.
Raphael believed that Britain, which currently holds the presidency of the Group of Seven, should lead a strong international humanitarian effort to help resettle the most vulnerable Afghans.
She stated that the UK had to adapt to the limits of its very low military capabilities and to the waning US appetite for intervention.
This requires greater emphasis on the importance of cooperation and burden-sharing with Europe, which may help the two sides overcome the differences that accompanied Brexit and damaged confidence.
Raphael concluded her article by emphasizing that it will take a long time for the United States to be able to repair the damage done by the withdrawal from Afghanistan to the region and its Western alliance.
Meanwhile, Britain and its European allies will need to consider the ramifications.
• After former President Donald Trump publicly questioned the feasibility of an alliance with the West, it seemed that the election of Joe Biden would mark the beginning of a return to cooperation, but this did not happen in reality.
• Although one could argue about the cost of the interventions, the US desire to lead some coalition to places like Afghanistan or Iraq sent a message to the world's rogue regimes that there is a sentinel, and that America looks after its interests broadly.
• Britain must adapt to the limits of its very low military capabilities and to America's diminishing appetite for intervention, and this requires greater emphasis on the importance of cooperation and burden-sharing with Europe.
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