Despite its distance, why is Israel worried about the return of the Taliban to Afghanistan and the American withdrawal from it?

Occupied Jerusalem -

at a time when official Israel remained silent about the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban movement to the political scene and rule in the capital, Kabul;

The voices of researchers, analysts, and assessments of the situation of strategic research centers in Tel Aviv, which warn of the repercussions and dangers of what Washington has done to the Middle East and Israel.

These analyzes reflect the silent positions of the official Israeli institution, which interacts behind the scenes of the corridors of decision-making centers, as the views of researchers and analysts close to the Israeli government are in harmony with the assessments of security, military and strategic research centers, which reinforce the theory of the need not to rely on the United States of America in the face of urgent issues and files. hot.

Despite the geographical distance between Afghanistan and Israel, the strategic research centers have tended to exaggerate the concerns and dangers that the Taliban movement may pose to Tel Aviv, and there are analysts who have gone to the proposition promoted by some Israeli political circles that US President Joe Biden adopts an approach that indicates Washington's abandonment of the Middle East, which will enhance Iranian influence in the region, according to its assessment.

Israeli researcher: The US withdrawal from Afghanistan will negatively affect the entire Middle East (French)

What after Afghanistan?

In assessing the situation, the researcher at the "Al-Quds Institute for Strategic Studies", retired general in the Israeli army, Jacob Amidror, asked, "What comes after the American withdrawal from Afghanistan?", noting that this question on the agenda of the Israeli establishment carries with it many meanings and connotations.

Although Afghanistan is geographically far from Israel and the Taliban was not among Israel's "enemies" on the battlefields, the researcher says that "this is an indication that US forces may withdraw from Iraq, and this puts Israel at the forefront of the confrontation with Iran."

Amidror - who served as the Israeli national security advisor to former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - believes that this question and the concerns it contains are not confined to Israel, and the question is how the US decision to reduce US military intervention in the Middle East and the disastrous outcome in Afghanistan will affect the international and regional system in which it operates. It is active in it, therefore, he says, "There are 3 circles to which attention should be drawn: the world circle, the Middle East circle, and Israel's point of view."

Conflict escalates

The Israeli researcher explained that "the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan reflects Washington's failure to establish a secular and democratic state in Kabul and the collapse of the influence of the security and military institutions that it established over 20 years, which will negatively affect America's global position in the face of the great powers, specifically China and Russia, and in turn, is An indicator of strengthening the influence of Islamic currents and movements in the Middle East that were fought after the so-called Arab Spring.

It is believed that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan will negatively affect all of the Middle East and Washington's allies in the region, which will witness an intensification of the internal conflicts of countries and regimes, as well as an escalation of regional tensions and secretions of the Iranian nuclear project with the strengthening of Tehran's regional influence, at the expense of the decline in the standing of Washington's allies who will face security variables. And military threatens the stability and existence of some regimes.

From the Israeli point of view, Amidror believes that “the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, the collapse of Washington’s policies, the disintegration of the commitment and the American regional intervention represent a problem and a dilemma, because Israel will be left alone to bear the burden of dealing with the countries that threaten it and threaten the entire region, but this is also a real opportunity for Israel to lead a regional alliance to confront Iran. To defend itself and the moderate Arab countries.

America's Escape

The same position is adopted by Yoav Limor, a military analyst for the newspaper "Israel Hayom", who estimates that the return of Taliban rule will contribute to the return and activity of "Al-Qaeda", "ISIS" and other similar organizations and militias. It will be in the Middle East, especially in Iraq, from which the Joe Biden administration is planning to withdraw."

The military analyst explained that the message conveyed from the scenes of events in Afghanistan to the Middle East is that "America, the regime's ally in Kabul, fled Afghanistan and did not withdraw as it was promoting, which means for Israel in particular that it can no longer rely on Washington."

Israel's security

It is not excluded that this will have immediate and negative repercussions on Israel’s security, according to the military analyst’s point of view, who believes that this will “enhance the audacity of armed militias operating with Iranian support from attacking Israeli targets, which requires Israel to be highly prepared for defense and not to bet on settlements and agreements to ensure security.” And stability, whether with Gaza, Hezbollah or the Iranian nuclear program.”

In light of this equation and developments, Limor does not rule out that Iran will take advantage of the circumstances and employ militias in Iraq to launch attacks on American forces, and thus put pressure on the Biden administration to resolve the decision and withdraw quickly from Iraq, which means that Iran, despite its concerns about the wave of refugees from Afghanistan, will be a winner According to the theory that "the most powerful superpower can withdraw and flee".

The Israeli military analyst believes that the new administration in the White House has shown that it is not rushing to use force and choose the military path to succeed the previous administrations, and Badin's approach suggests that his administrations do not pay attention to what is happening in the Middle East, and have priorities and an agenda different from what Washington had in the past.

Israeli analysts: Washington failed to establish a democratic state in Kabul, despite the great material and human losses (Anatolia)

existential threat

For his part, Udi Dekel, director of the Israeli National Security Research Center at Tel Aviv University, believes that the rapid disintegration of the Afghan security forces and the sudden seizure of the capital, Kabul, by the Taliban, reflect a fundamental flaw and gaps in the efforts of the United States and the coalition to build a national army for a country that does not exist on the planet. what it looks like.

He believes that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban's return to the political scene and to rule "require Israel to monitor vigilantly the stability and validity of the regimes in the Middle East, and what is happening in the countries of the Iranian circle and influence, especially in Syria, Lebanon, the right and Iraq, which requires Israel to rely more on itself in the face of all challenges. regional".

Dekel explained that the failure of the United States during two decades of involvement and war in Afghanistan requires a new reassessment of the limits of military power. Washington in the event of an existential threat?