Afghanistan is now in the hands of the Taliban, back in power twenty years after their fall.
Thousands of Afghans seek to flee.
If the Taliban have promised to "respect human rights, in particular those of women", many fear the return of atrocities and an ultra-rigorous application of Islam.
DECRYPTION
Twenty after being ousted from power, the Taliban have regained control of Afghanistan.
This radical Islamist movement conquered the main cities of the country in ten days and entered Kabul on Sunday, taking advantage of the withdrawal of American troops.
Since then, scenes of chaos have multiplied, especially at Kabul airport where thousands of Afghans are trying to flee the country, while foreign powers organize the evacuations of their nationals, but also of activists and threatened people.
And now what will happen?
How are the Taliban going to rule the country?
When the Taliban arrived at the gates of Kabul on Sunday, the Afghan interior minister first promised "a peaceful transfer of power to a transitional government". For their part, the insurgents affirmed their wish for an "inclusive government" for the entire population. But a few hours later, President Ashraf Ghani is announced on the run. He will then recognize the victory of the fundamentalists on Facebook. The latter finally enter the capital and invest the presidential palace.
Since then, the organization is still unclear.
The Taliban have set up roadblocks and guard posts.
They patrol, armed, in the streets of Kabul, while the leaders of the movement announced the convergence towards the capital of thousands of combatants, to ensure its security.
The radical movement will now have to transform the insurgency into a government, ready to lead the country.
Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, co-founder and number two of the Taliban, tipped to lead the movement has already returned this Tuesday to Afghanistan, from Qatar, where he headed the political bureau of the movement.
He arrived in Kandahar, the capital of the Taliban when they were in power between 1996 and 2001. It was in the province of the same name that the movement was born in the early 1990s.
Discreet but tenacious ties between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda
The Taliban were driven out of Kabul 20 years ago for letting Al Qaeda prepare for the 9/11 attacks.
From now on, they should opt for greater caution, even if their ties remain intimate.
In their negotiations with the Americans, the new bosses of Afghanistan had promised not to protect the fighters of Al-Qaeda, founded by Osama bin Laden and responsible for the biggest attack ever against a Western power.
But that promise hardly seemed to convince anyone on Monday.
The connections between the two military groups are historic: the fathers of Sirajuddin Haqqani and Mollah Yaqoubi, both senior Taliban executives, were linked with Bin Laden.
Relations now remain to be defined.
Support for the radical Islamist organization could lead to Western reprisals and a cutoff with some potential allies such as China or Russia.
Will they impose a regime as strict as in the 1990s?
During their time in power, the Taliban imposed an ultra-strict version of Islamic law on the population. Games, music, photography and television were prohibited. The Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and the Suppression of Vice was a reign of terror. Thieves had their hands cut off, murderers were executed in public, and homosexuals were killed. Women accused of adultery were whipped and stoned to death. Men had to keep long beards, attend prayers or be beaten, and were forced to wear traditional clothing.
This Tuesday, in the streets of Kabul, the men had also opted for the shalwar kameez, the ample traditional Afghan dress, a sign that the fear of a step back was present, despite the promises of the Taliban. The latter have been multiplying the signs of change for several days. They announced a general amnesty for all state officials, calling on them to return to work. "You should resume your lifestyle with full confidence," they said in a statement.
"Unfortunately, it is the same as in 1996 when they took power, because they are just as fanatical as they were before", qualifies the doctor in geopolitics and professor at Sciences Po, Frédéric Encel, who emphasizes false promises on Europe 1. "These are radical Islamists of Sunni essence, therefore violently anti-Shiites, who are extraordinarily misogynistic and phallocratic. They consider that in the long term, anyway, on Earth, everyone will be willingly or by force Islamized. "
“Now there is at least one nuance to 1996 and when they fell after 9/11,” he adds, however.
"They are perhaps a little more pragmatic on the form. The Russians and the Chinese, once the Americans have left, will probably have little patience with people who, at their direct or indirect borders, will carry out attacks. undoubtedly an emirate which will perhaps be more 'conventional' from a diplomatic point of view but which, unfortunately, vis-à-vis the population and especially women, has no reason to change its habits. "
What will be the fate of women in this new regime?
The situation of Afghan women is particularly worrying, as fundamentalists have regained control of the country. Between 1996-2001, they no longer had any rights under their authority. They could no longer go out without a male chaperone or work and had to wear the burka. The youngest girls could no longer go to school. Since those dark years, the situation had changed for some, especially those who, for two decades, went to university, held positions of responsibility, whether in politics, journalism or even within the judiciary and security forces. Their world is now threatening to crumble.
Insurgent spokesman Suhail Shaheen said Monday evening that women need not fear threats. "Their right to education is also protected," he said. Fundamentalists pledged that they would "respect human rights, especially those of women, in accordance with" Islamic values. "
However, schools and universities in the capital still remained closed, and few women dared to risk the streets of Kabul on Tuesday. On Sunday, students were unable to access their universities. According to videos on social networks, a few women briefly gathered in front of the entrance to the green zone, a fortified area that houses the embassies and the NATO representation, in Kabul to demand the right to return to work. Taliban in trucks tried unsuccessfully to disperse them before they were persuaded by civilians to leave the area. In the banks of Kandahar and Herat, female workers were harassed by the Taliban in July, then escorted by armed men to their homes, without being able to return to work.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guerres said he was "particularly concerned about the future of women and girls".
Frédéric Encel is also hardly under any illusions.
"During their conquest, they started their exactions again, in particular vis-à-vis women and young girls," he assures us.
Several testimonies already report the abduction of teenage girls or women with the aim of organizing forced marriages with Islamist fighters in the recently conquered regions.
How is the economy reacting to the return of the Taliban?
Now installed in the presidential palace in Kabul, the Taliban have not however conquered all the wealth of the country. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the gross reserves of the Afghan Central Bank stood at $ 9.4 billion at the end of April, mostly held abroad. The United States has already announced that assets owned on American soil will not be made available to the Taliban. Other countries could follow this decision.
As for the Afghan currency, the afghani, it plunged against the dollar on Tuesday.
It now takes 86 afghanis to buy a dollar, where it took only 80 last Friday, a drop of more than 6%, according to a compilation by the Bloomberg agency.
Ajmal Ahmady, governor of Da Afghanistan Bank, forced to flee the country, had learned Friday that the "deliveries of dollars were interrupted", accentuating the panic on the local markets.
Shared international reactions
The mufti of the Sultanate of Oman, the highest religious authority in the Gulf country, offered his congratulations on Monday "to the Afghan people for their victory against the invaders" after the country fell into the hands of the Taliban. In 1996, when they first came to power, the regime was recognized by Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Pakistan. The latter will also be a strong ally of Turkey, which wishes to work to stabilize the situation in order to stem an influx of refugees.
China, which shares 76 km of border with Afghanistan, said it was prepared to have relations with the new regime put in place by the Taliban, but urged the latter to distance itself from international terrorist organizations, refusing that the country does not become "a place of convergence of terrorism and extremism". Russia called for an "inter-Afghan" dialogue, believing that the Taliban was sending "positive signals" in terms of freedom. Both countries denounced American interventionism in the country. Finally, Iran said that the "defeat" of the United States must turn "into an opportunity to establish security and lasting peace" in the region.
The Western powers, for their part, criticize a failure of the international community and focus on the evacuation of nationals, sometimes bitterly judging the decision to withdraw American troops. Joe Biden strongly defended the move in a speech Monday night. "US forces cannot, and should not, wage a war and die in a war that Afghan forces are unwilling to fight for themselves," he said.