An Australian writer warns:
The danger of the “Taliban” will transcend borders unless the major countries act
Taliban fighters roam the streets of Jalalabad.
Reuters
Afghan refugees face an even harsher fate.
EPA
picture
The Taliban continues to advance in Afghanistan as city after city falls under its control, at times after fighting, and after at other times with surrender.
The movement has now entered the capital, Kabul, which will be a clear victory for it.
The Australian journalist, Ruth Pollard, says in a report recently published by Bloomberg News Agency, that it is bad of course, but it will become worse as the conflict spreads to countries beyond the borders of Afghanistan, and the signs of this have already begun.
The armed Islamist groups in those countries, some of which have transnational agendas such as al-Qaeda, now have a model for how to defeat governments backed by major powers, and are now feeling emboldened after what they have observed of the Taliban's swift progress in Afghanistan.
less pressure
Pollard says that this is happening at a time when armed Islamic groups are experiencing the least pressure in the fight against terrorism over the past two decades, which enables them to practice their activities completely freely in fact.
Asfandiyar Mir, a security analyst in South Asia at the US Institute of Peace, believes that it is dangerous for efforts to combat threats to dwindle at the same time as threats are increasing.
"Islamic militants in Central Asia are starting to flex their muscles, anti-Chinese Islamists are attacking Chinese people in Pakistan, and it is very likely that there will be more violence in the region," Mir said. "The threat continues, and we're only talking about an escalation from this point on."
Pollard says that the collapse of the Afghan republic after the departure of the United States will have regional significance just as it was the post-9/11 invasion, or the withdrawal of Soviet forces and the fall of the communist regime it supported, and "This is a radical shift that will lead to a change in politics in this part of the world." In ways that are difficult to predict.
The immediate change is expected to be regional, as Chinese interests in Pakistan have already been damaged.
Last April, a car bomb exploded in a luxury hotel where the Beijing ambassador is staying in Quetta, not far from the Taliban strongholds in southern Afghanistan.
The Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack.
Last month, Pollard says, a bomb exploded on a bus on its way to a dam site and hydroelectric project in Dassault, near Pakistan's border with China, killing 12 people, including nine Chinese.
No one has claimed responsibility for the attack, but Beijing was so concerned that it hosted Taliban representatives to meet with Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
There is no doubt that any further attacks against Chinese nationals operating in South Asia, whether claimed by the Taliban or others acting with their acquiescence, will affect future relations, although it is not clear what China will do in response.
stay tuned
If no major political or diplomatic efforts are made to halt the advance of the Taliban or to rein in the groups operating under it, including the greatly weakened al-Qaeda, there will be an expectation of how long there will be an increase in terrorist attacks.
The danger would be particularly severe for six of Afghanistan's neighbors, which, apart from China, include Iran and Pakistan, as well as nearby India, which will keep a close eye on Muslim-majority Kashmir for possible violence.
Russia will be concerned about the impact on Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, and about any terrorist response to its territory.
intervention
Pollard says that there is a possibility that the major countries, the United States, Russia and China, will intervene and persuade their allies and friends to end hostilities, but analysts believe that this is not likely to happen, as the situation has worsened since the United States and the Taliban reached their agreement in February. Last year, it will continue that way.
Another worrying thing for Afghanistan is that foreign fighters will start to trickle in again from around the world.
There are insurgents from other countries already in Afghanistan, but most of them are from neighboring countries, and once they arrive from faraway countries, the likelihood of the attacks will spread more widely.
Hussain Haqqani, the former Pakistani ambassador to Washington and current director of South and Central Asian affairs at the Hudson Institute, says that the Taliban are still ideologically linked to al-Qaeda and other international terrorist groups, and there they participate in financial matters, training, and even marriage.
"Since armed Islamists do not think much about the issue of international borders, and consider the current global borders to be un-Islamic, it is only a matter of time before they turn their eyes to Europe and the United States again," Haqqani said.
It is difficult to know how things will turn out, Pollard concludes.
Unless the great powers do more than hold their breath and hope for the best, the result of their indifference will transcend the borders of Afghanistan.
• Islamic armed groups, some of which have transnational agendas such as al-Qaeda, now have a model for how to defeat governments backed by major powers, and are now feeling emboldened after what they have observed of the swift and swift progress of the "Taliban" movement in Afghanistan.
• Another thing expected for Afghanistan, and worrisome, is that foreign fighters will begin to flow again in from around the world.
The streets of Kabul are empty... and crowded at the airport
The streets of Kabul seemed deserted yesterday, a day after the Taliban took control of the Afghan capital without a fight, but hundreds of civilians crowded at the airport, seeking to escape.
A video clip on social media showed hundreds of people rushing towards the airport with their luggage, while the sounds of gunfire reverberated.
American forces were deployed at the airport to secure the evacuation of American forces and fired in the air to deter hundreds of civilians who ran towards the runway in an attempt to board a plane.
"The crowd was out of control," a US official told Reuters by phone.
"The aim of the shooting was only to defuse the chaos," he added.
The Wazir Akbar Khan district, where embassies are concentrated, appeared empty as most of the diplomats and their families left the city, or moved to the airport until departure.
Residents said government offices were also empty.
"It is strange to see the streets empty, there are no longer large diplomatic processions," said Gul Mohamed Hakim, who owns a bakery in the area.
"I will make bread here, but I will earn a little," he added.
The security guards were my friends, but they left.”
"My wife and I made sure that she had enough burqas for herself and the girls," he said.
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