Tokyo (AFP)

Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.3% over the April-June period compared to the previous quarter, according to official preliminary data released on Monday, demonstrating a certain resilience of the Japanese economy, still stuck in the health crisis.

This slight growth, stronger than that expected by the consensus of economists polled by the Bloomberg agency (+ 0.1%), makes it possible to avoid a fallout in recession of the third world economy, defined by a contraction of the GDP on at least two quarters in a row, following a 0.9% drop in the first quarter.

The Japanese economy was mainly supported by a rebound in the second quarter of household consumption (+ 0.9%) and non-residential business investment (+ 1.7%) despite the restrictive measures put in place in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic.

These data "suggest that household spending is developing immunity" to these measures, said Tom Learmouth in a note to Capital Economics.

The 2.9% increase in exports was offset by a 5.1% jump in imports, but this trend is expected to fade in the second half of the year, according to Learmouth, as "consumers move away from goods. materials to turn back to services "as restrictions are lifted.

People dine at a restaurant in Tokyo, August 1, 2021 Philip FONG AFP / Archives

Public demand (government spending, public investments), which had increased in 2020 under the impact of stimulus plans, stagnated (+ 0.1%) after having fallen sharply between January and March.

- Ineffective health measures -

As in the first quarter, part of Japan - including Tokyo - continued to be placed in a state of emergency during the second quarter - between the end of April and the end of June - because of the pandemic.

This government device allows local authorities to urge the population to avoid non-essential travel, and to ask bars and restaurants to close at 8 p.m. and not to serve alcohol.

But the effectiveness of this measure raises questions, the instructions seeming less and less respected.

Japan has been experiencing its fifth and worst coronavirus wave to date since the end of June, with records of infections regularly recorded in Tokyo and nationally, notably under the effect of the Delta variant, which is more contagious.

An employee of the Japanese company Suntory Holding receives an injection of the Moderna vaccine at her workplace in Tokyo, June 21, 2021 Kazuhiro NOGI AFP / Archives

The number of deaths, however, is limited.

The majority of the country's inhabitants aged 65 and over are now vaccinated but, beyond this priority population category, the national vaccination campaign is criticized for its slowness with only 35% of the population fully vaccinated.

Also the real recovery of the Japanese GDP is still pending and economists continue to postpone their estimates on the hour of its awakening.

For the third quarter, they condition their recovery forecasts on the effectiveness of the state of emergency reinstated in July in Tokyo - the fourth since the start of the pandemic -, where the Olympic Games were held behind closed doors on the 23rd. July to August 8.

Other departments of the country then joined the device, currently scheduled until August 31 and which could last in September and be extended geographically, according to the local press.

While a restart of the economy in the third quarter is unlikely, "vaccines could offer a strong rebound in the fourth quarter," notes Tom Learmouth.

In mid-July, the Bank of Japan moderated its GDP growth outlook for the 2021/22 fiscal year (April 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022), now anticipating a rebound of 3.8% from 4% previously.

© 2021 AFP