The bad economic situation contributed to the increase in bleeding
The continuous migration of talent will destroy the hope of reviving Lebanon
Lebanon has entered a dark tunnel whose end cannot be predicted.
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The explosion of the port of Beirut revealed the complete impotence of the political elite.
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Jean Antoun, the owner of a café in an upscale neighborhood in central Beirut, is planning to leave Lebanon for Europe. Over the past two years, the country's economic crisis has exhausted the resources of most Lebanese, halved the number of his customers, and his revenue has fallen by 80%, even after... Raising the selling price of a cup of coffee and cake to compensate for the high costs, and Anton says: “By the end of this year, if not before, I will leave this place,” adding: “Nothing will improve, and it has become impossible to live a decent life here.”
Anton is not alone. All the businesses on this once-touristed street are struggling to survive, many shops have closed, many owners are thinking of leaving their country, and most of Anton's clients, who are upper to middle class, are leaving. From fashion designers, architects and advertising professionals, to Cyprus and elsewhere in Europe, they love Lebanon's towns, mountains, and beaches, but they don't like blackouts, and they take only a fraction of their previous salary.
And professionals who provide essential services, such as doctors, nurses and engineers, as well as academics and businessmen, are the first to leave in such situations, and economists say that despite the scarcity of data, the situation is very worrying, and in an assessment conducted in December 2020, the World Bank warned of The brain drain has become an "increasingly desperate option" in Lebanon, as the current economic crisis ranks among the three largest crises in the world since the mid-19th century.
permanent damage
“A sharp deterioration in basic services will have long-term repercussions,” including mass migration, and the permanent damage to human capital will be extremely difficult to repair, the World Bank said in June. Perhaps this dimension of the Lebanese crisis makes it unique compared to other crises in Lebanon. other global.
Anger first, then despair, and now flight, and over the past two years, the Lebanese have witnessed the deterioration of their economy without interruption.
The explosion in Beirut port also revealed the incompetence and criminal neglect of the ruling elite, and they do not hope for justice or any change under any government with the same responsible political class.
And people who can find jobs abroad or join friends or family abroad, do not hesitate to leave, while others are waiting for their chance.
Experts say the current boom in brain drain will have a lasting effect on a country in myriad crises, and the flight of human capital will exacerbate the collapse of an already battered economy and impede its recovery.
But the levels of despair are so high, that 77% of the Lebanese youth want to emigrate, according to one of the surveys, and in the Arab world, the Lebanese youth come at the top of the list of those who want to flee their country, ahead of 54% of the youth in war-stricken Syria, and 58 % of Palestinian youth living under the Israeli occupation.
According to some estimates, 20% of Lebanese doctors have left, or are planning to emigrate, since the economic crisis that swept the country in 2019. Hundreds of pharmacies have closed, leaving pharmacists unemployed, and the ongoing mass exodus of healthcare staff such as nurses continues. Gulf countries.
high numbers
Rita Howayek, a physiotherapist, said that she witnessed dozens of resignations in the hospital where she works in the northern city of Tripoli. “They went to Saudi Arabia, Canada, and other places,” Howayek said. “They should send money to their families back home.” Dozens of engineers request letters of recommendation from their superiors every day to apply for jobs abroad, and more than 1,500 faculty and staff at the American University of Beirut, which houses the university's medical center, have dropped out over the past two years, according to the Institute for Global Affairs report. University professor Charlotte Karam, who works to empower women in the region, says 40% of her colleagues have quit, and the numbers will rise this year.
Diplomatic sources in two European missions in Lebanon told "Foreign Policy" that they witnessed an increase in the number of visa applications from Lebanese seeking settlement in Europe, and a German diplomatic source explained that "middle-class Lebanese are communicating with us in large numbers to find out how to obtain a job and a visa." Work, and in general how to move legally,” he continued, “most of them are engineers.”
For his part, a French diplomatic source said: “We provide assistance to schools, hospitals and other institutions, to ensure that the Lebanese continue their work here, and that they have a future inside Lebanon.” Among the professions, bankers find themselves in an even worse situation, because the banks prevented the Lebanese from withdrawing their savings. And imposed informal procedures on small depositors.
Khaled Zeidan, a former banker, said that while many employees plan to leave the country, it is much more difficult for incumbents and CEOs, although some seem to want to "give up the ship". I expect at least 50% of the sector out of the total number of employees to emigrate, and of course the employees are already leaving, or planning to leave due to financial pressures.”
long history
Lebanon's short history as an independent country is full of conflicts and crises that have forced people to flee, and generations of Lebanese have migrated and settled in Africa, the Americas and Europe. The largest mass exodus occurred during the 15-year civil war, and with the end of the war in 1990, many Lebanese found hope and returned, but fled again, during the 2006 war with Israel, and as a result the number of expatriates today is three times the number of Lebanon's population of five Millions of people, and over the past 15 years, migration patterns were relatively stable until two years ago, when protesters exposed the way the Central Bank of Lebanon works, and everything collapsed.
And unlike their predecessors or their Syrian neighbors, more recently, the current generation of Lebanese are not fleeing the bombs, yet they say the economic pressures are enormous.
Mohammed Shehadeh, a protester in Beirut, remembers the violence during the civil war, but says it was not more difficult than it is now economically. So much so that even after standing in line for hours, we might not get it.”
Shehadeh admits that most of his friends have left the country, but he wants to stay and fight for his country, saying: “Who would be here if we left?
To whom do we leave our country?”
To leave or not to leave, this is the question Lebanese professionals are asking, because most of them find it difficult to live on their diminishing salaries, and in the meantime the greatest concern for the rest of the world must be that the most vulnerable sections of Lebanese society will, in the end, resort to the use of smugglers to ride Boats to Greece Last year a boat full of dozens of Lebanese and Syrians tried to reach Cyprus, but smugglers were stranded, and a young boy died in his mother's arms after days of not eating and watering.
During the past two years, the Lebanese have witnessed the deterioration of their economy without interruption, and the explosion in the port of Beirut also exposed the incompetence and criminal neglect of the ruling elite, and they do not hope for justice, nor any change under any government with the same responsible political class. Those who find jobs or join friends or family abroad do not hesitate to leave.
1,500 faculty and staff members at the American University of Beirut, resigned.
The population of Lebanon is 5 million, while there are three times as many expatriates abroad.
20 % of Lebanese doctors have emigrated, or are planning to do so, since the economic crisis that swept the country in 2019.
77 % of the Lebanese youth want to emigrate, according to a survey, and in the Arab world, the Lebanese youth come at the top of the list of those who want to escape from their country, ahead of 54% of the youth in war-stricken Syria, and 58% of the Palestinian youth who live under occupation Israeli.
Anshal Vohra ■ Foreign Policy columnist and Beirut-based freelance television reporter specializing in Middle East affairs.
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