It fears India's influence and strategic encirclement
Pakistan will have a decisive role in the future of Afghanistan
The Taliban movement has become tougher and more difficult than it was in 2001. Archive
The Afghan government faces many challenges.
EPA
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In a gamble that puts hope in the face of history, US President Joe Biden and his team are betting that the Taliban will agree to a negotiated peace deal in Afghanistan and that Pakistan, which has long sponsored the militant group, will pressure it to share power with the Afghan government. . But many experts say such hopes are illusory, and history is likely to win in the end, as Pakistan and the Taliban leadership - still based in Pakistan - will continue to support each other on the battlefield, as well as at the negotiating table.
In short, Pakistan wants a Taliban victory, or at least is unwilling to do much to prevent that from happening. Islamabad also supports the Taliban attack. “Without Pakistani logistical support, they (the Taliban) will not be able to launch the large-scale attack they seek,” says Bruce Riedel, who has served as a senior adviser on South Asia and the Middle East to four US presidents. Because it expelled all foreign forces from Afghanistan; The goal now is to create panic in the Afghan government and the Afghan army.” The Biden team's argument is that even as the United States withdraws from Afghanistan, neither the Taliban nor Islamabad wants to repeat the bloody history that led to 9/11.
Meanwhile, Taliban leaders and Pakistani officials recently said it themselves, and as the chief US negotiator, Zalmay Khalilzad confirmed, "the Taliban said they don't want to be a pariah state," explaining, "They want to be recognized, to get help." ».
But this moderate rhetoric does not correspond to the facts on the ground.
Although the movement’s leaders have presented themselves as diplomats on the world stage since the start of peace talks with the Americans in 2020, the Taliban have resumed their previous brutal practices, after seizing major Afghan cities such as Kandahar, Lashkar Gah and Herat.
And this week, even the US government has acknowledged this fact, and the US embassy in Kabul wrote on Twitter on Monday, “In the cities of Spin Boldak and Kandahar, (Taliban) killed dozens of civilians in revenge killings,” adding, “The killings, these They could constitute war crimes, and the movement’s fighters or leaders responsible must be investigated and held accountable.”
great influence
Over the past decade, Pakistan has supported the Taliban even in the face of a US-led coalition of 46 countries. This policy is unlikely to change, now, with the departure of the US military and NATO. Confronting India, Pakistan is more motivated than ever to support the insurgents in Afghanistan who are trying to counterbalance New Delhi's influence in the region. Islamabad fears a strong Afghan government allied with India and the West, which could end up encircling Pakistan. At the same time, it seems that the peace talks are at a standstill, while neither the Taliban nor Afghan President Ashraf Ghani seem ready to negotiate, as each side claims legitimacy and is the legitimate ruler.
In the midst of all this sits Pakistan, which still wields significant - albeit waning - influence over the Taliban, as it hosts many of the group's leaders and their families. In a series of talks in Washington last week, Pakistan's National Security Adviser, Muayyad Yusuf, said he had a "meeting of minds" with his US counterpart, Jake Sullivan, on the need for a political settlement. "We will not accept a forcible takeover" of Afghanistan, Yousef stressed. Yet this is what the Taliban intends to do, some observers say; It is unlikely that Islamabad will stand in their way.
"It is foolish to think that the (Taliban) movement is softer and nicer than it was in 2001," said Ryan Crocker, the former US ambassador to Afghanistan.
After 20 years, the movement has finally taken over, and they are "not interested in talking to anyone unless it comes to terms of surrender," Crocker adds.
The Biden administration appears to believe that it can avoid this outcome through negotiations.
After meeting Yusuf, Sullivan, on July 29, Sullivan tweeted that the officials "discussed the urgent need to reduce violence in Afghanistan and a negotiated political settlement to the conflict."
The Biden administration has said little about its discussions with Islamabad.
But US officials did not deny Yusuf's argument, made in a meeting with reporters, that all Sullivan asked was Pakistan's help "to bring the two sides of the conflict into one room for honest talks," as Yousef puts it.
Strategic reasons
Experts and observers believe that Islamabad would prefer an outcome in which the Taliban agreed to become part of a coalition government. James Dobbins, who served as the US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, said the Pakistanis had worked in the past to bring the Taliban to the peace table. Pakistani civilian officials are increasingly concerned that the Taliban, once legitimized by American negotiators, is no longer under control and may inspire anti-Islamabad fighters across the border. “I think there is no real reason to suspect that their preferred solution is a government that includes (Taliban), as well as pro-Pakistan,” Dobbins said. But it is balanced enough that it enjoys international legitimacy," he added, "but they are not ready to arm (the Taliban) with force to get this."
For his part, Crocker said that the reasons for Pakistan's support for the "Taliban" are clear and strategic, dating back to the end of the Cold War. Pakistan and the United States allied against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, and helped train the Afghan resistance, which was composed largely of Islamic militants. After the Soviets withdrew, in 1989, the United States left, too, leaving the Pakistanis to face a civil war on their border. Pakistan felt that it had no choice but to support the then-dominant Taliban, which Islamabad ultimately viewed as a counterbalance to Indian influence.
Pakistani columnist Musharraf Zaidi said that many Pakistani officials are beginning to express these concerns publicly.
Although Pakistan is not innocent, the Americans tend to exaggerate the degree of control exercised by the Pakistani army and intelligence service, Zaidi explained, "Pakistan cannot control its capital, let alone Afghanistan."
Many experts predict a bloody civil war and the targeting of Afghans, who are considered American puppets;
Depriving women and girls of the rights that were granted to them under the American occupation.
bad publicity
There is already a mass exodus of translators and other Afghan collaborators with the United States, who are seeking special immigrant visas.
Moreover, the Taliban has not severed its relationship with al-Qaeda, despite its promises to do so, and the terrorist group is likely to find a new haven in the Taliban-controlled parts of Afghanistan.
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan certainly would not want the bad publicity associated with such an outcome, but he himself said that reducing India's threat is critical in Pakistan's strategic considerations.
Pakistan has long been known for its fickle behaviour, but the US's reluctance to pressure Pakistan with excessive force is rooted in one fear: a nuclear-armed Pakistan.
Isolating Pakistan and identifying it as a supporter of terrorism could easily create a nightmare far worse than what happened in the late 1990s, when a Pakistani smuggling network enabled Libya to obtain nuclear weapons designs.
Meanwhile, Washington and Islamabad continue to feign diplomatic prowess to the world;
However, Crocker believes that "a negotiated settlement is the best that can be reached, but that will not be achieved;
So the Pakistanis are not embarrassed to announce what they want to achieve.”
growing fears
Even more frightening for Washington is the prospect of an unstable and isolated Pakistan splitting, and extremists taking control of the country's nuclear weapons.
Even US influence, when used, has proven limited and even less effective now that a rising China has increased aid and investment in the face of US hostility to Beijing.
For China, the "economic corridor" with Pakistan is one of the largest parts of the massive Belt and Road Initiative.
Overall, US military aid to Pakistan declined by 60% between 2010 and 2017, "without significant impact on Pakistan's behaviour," according to a 2018 study by the Brookings Institution.
• Pakistan wants a "Taliban" victory, or at least it is not prepared to do much to prevent this from happening.
• Moderate rhetoric does not correspond to the facts on the ground. Although the movement's leaders presented themselves as diplomats on the world stage, the "Taliban" resumed its previous brutal practices, after seizing major Afghan cities.
• Pakistani civilian officials are increasingly concerned that the Taliban, once legitimized by US negotiators, is no longer under control and may inspire anti-Islamabad fighters across the border.
• The Biden team's argument is that even as the United States withdraws from Afghanistan, neither the Taliban nor Islamabad wants to repeat the bloody history that led to 9/11.
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