Representatives of the Venezuelan government of the socialist ruler Nicolás Maduro and the Venezuelan opposition are meeting in Mexico City for the first official talks since 2019. While the opposition is seeking guarantees for free and fair elections, Maduro is hoping for sanctions to be relaxed and international recognition.

First of all, the talks that should start on Friday are about moving back from confrontation to dialogue.

It is also about overcoming the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela.

The mere fact that the two sides are sitting opposite each other again is considered by diplomats to be an initial success.

Tjerk Brühwiller

Correspondent for Latin America based in São Paulo.

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Norway, which already enjoyed the trust of both sides during the previous talks in Barbados in 2019, is acting as a mediator.

In addition, several countries will participate as observers.

Russia and the Netherlands are among the participants.

In the past few days there has also been talk of France and Argentina.

Other countries, particularly the United States, will be following the process closely, but will remain in the background.

Host Mexico has long been in favor of dialogue between the two camps and has increased its diplomatic activities as a mediator in the recent past.

Venezuela is politically flagged

The political crisis in Venezuela is deadlocked, the country is economically on the ground. After a period of confrontation, the government and opposition in Venezuela, as well as most of the international community, have come to the realization that the way out must be sought through dialogue. The opposition's strategy of using pressure from abroad to get Maduro to resign has failed. The young opposition leader Juan Guaidó, who was proclaimed interim president in 2019 by the opposition and recognized as such by the United States and numerous European and Latin American countries, came close to achieving this goal. However, Maduro managed to withstand pressure to keep the ranks of the army closed and maintain internal control.

Guaidó had risen to be the beacon of hope for the Venezuelans, but never had any de facto power.

Its influence has almost dissipated in the past few months, also internationally.

The talks could end his role as interim president.

To do this, the country needs a return to the rules of the game of democracy.

However, even optimists in the ranks of the opposition rate the chances of a quick and comprehensive breakthrough as slim.

Economic output plummeted

The opposition had sat at the table with the government several times in recent years. The negotiations always took place with a view to an election. The government, which controls both the electoral authorities and the judiciary, has always refused to make concessions. With the argument that there were no guarantees for a free and fair election, part of the opposition boycotted the elections - an issue that repeatedly led to ruptures within the opposition. At the same time, the opposition has been subjected to repression by the Maduro regime, which persecutes politicians, activists and journalists, for years. There are always a number of political prisoners.

Venezuela is politically flagged. There is a deep gap between politics and society. Civil society organizations are therefore asking themselves whether the Venezuelan people are adequately represented in the talks by the politicians of the government and the opposition. The population has little hope of change. Most Venezuelans hardly have time to think about it anyway. In the eight years under Maduro, the economic output of the oil-richest country in the world has collapsed by three quarters. The population is largely impoverished and the supply situation is precarious. About five million Venezuelans have left their country in the past few years and triggered the most dramatic refugee crisis in America.

Maduro also claims that his country's decline is a result of American and European sanctions policies. The sanctions against members of the regime were only raised when Maduro abandoned the path of democracy and human rights. In the talks in Mexico, these sanctions could now be used as a medium of exchange to get Maduro back on this path. Experts point out that a successful re-democratization process could take years.