The end of the epidemic is expected early next year
Interview.. British scientist: The health crisis will end when "Corona" becomes like other respiratory viruses
Francois Ballou.
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The director of the Institute of Genetics, University of London, Francois Ballou, spoke of hopes for a way out of the global health crisis.
Here are excerpts from the interview with the Guardian about the latest developments in the pandemic:
■ On Twitter, you present yourself as being in the "centre" wing with regard to the epidemic. What do you mean by that?
■■ Since the beginning of the epidemic, there has been polarization.
And while some people thought we should let the virus do what it wanted, others saw that we should fight to eradicate it everywhere.
The two camps fought for 16 months, which is unacceptable.
Both are extreme and unrealistic.
As for me, I have always believed that carefully considered mitigation of the impact of the epidemic can keep the epidemic under control until the arrival of vaccines.
A few countries have come close, such as Singapore, Norway and Denmark.
■ Do you think there is still a new mutant that represents the main threat on our way out of this epidemic?
■■ We haven't had any mutants in a while;
All four virus variants of concern emerged in the second half of 2020, and it is important to keep in mind that viruses evolve all the time at a fairly regular pace.
There had been expectations that the mutant would turn out to be highly lethal, while other scientists say the virus has reached its "maximum proportion" and that if it evolves further, it will lose the ability to coexist with its human hosts.
It is important to balance expectations with the likelihood of them occurring.
The possibility of a strain emerging 50 times more deadly is unbelievable.
And I say that because we have 200 respiratory viruses, and most of us get infections on a regular basis.
And we've never seen that kind of sudden change in mortality.
■ Another concern is the mutation that enables the virus to “evade” vaccines.
■■ More than two million viral samples have been studied, and we may have already detected all technically possible mutations.
From our observations, we know that the virus skipping the vaccine will not happen until after one or two mutations, as it will require an accumulation that leads to the correct combination.
We will not move from a stage where everyone is protected to one where everyone is vulnerable, overnight.
And we will have time to update the vaccines.
Also, while the new mutant is already able to infect vaccinated people, it will not eliminate the protection against severe disease and death that both the vaccine and previous infection provide.
■ Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson has been criticized for his predictions that 100,000 people would be infected every day after restrictions were eased on July 19.
■■ I know Neal, he's been my boss for five years.
His predictions were very pessimistic, because he tended to be pessimistic;
This is not criticism.
And if one of us is in a position of authority to advise the government, he really wants you to be careful.
■ Can you explain what you mean by “scientific populism”?
■■ As the epidemic progressed, the general mood became darker and fearful, creating a market for gloom and suffering.
And that's as bad as the effects of being overly optimistic at first: stay home for two weeks, it's a mild illness or put on a mask and it'll go away.
Not to be a systematic optimist or pessimist, and it must be made clear that there are great doubts.
And that is empowerment, to understand things.
■ You have repeatedly stated that the epidemic will be over by mid to late 2021. Do you still see that?
■■ Depends on how you select it.
I say the pandemic is over when COVID-19 does not cause much more deaths than other respiratory viruses out there.
This will first happen in places like the UK that have been privileged to have the vaccine, and I expect it to be over early next year, at the latest.
• We will not move from a stage where everyone is protected to a point where everyone is vulnerable, overnight. And we will have time to update the vaccines.
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