Afghanistan: "Other provincial capitals could fall into the hands of the Taliban soon"
Women and children inside a school after leaving their homes following fighting between Afghan security forces and the Taliban, in Ghaziabad district, northern Kunar province, on 7 August 2021. AFP - NOORULLAH SHIRZADA
Text by: Sophia Khatsenkova Follow
3 min
In Afghanistan, the Taliban are continuing their offensive.
This Saturday, August 7, they seized the city of Sheberghan in the northwest of the country.
It is the second provincial capital to fall into the hands of the insurgents in less than 24 hours.
This Friday, they captured Zaranj, capital of the province of Nimroz, without meeting any resistance.
RFI asked Gilles Dorronsoro, expert on Afghanistan and professor of political science at Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, 3 questions.
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RFI: What does the conquest of the cities of Zaranj and Sheberghan represent by the Taliban?
Gilles Dorronsoro
: This is the first time that provincial capitals have fallen into the hands of the Taliban.
Symbolically and militarily, it is an important event.
Second, it is a sign that all of western and southern Afghanistan is falling.
This foreshadows more falls of provincial capitals in the weeks to come.
Today we have fighting in Lashkar Gah, a big city in the south.
About 90% of the city is under Taliban control.
There is only a military base and a few government-controlled official buildings left, so this town could fall pretty quickly.
We have ten cities where the Taliban could achieve victory in the coming weeks.
Are the Afghan forces capable of retaking these cities conquered by the Taliban?
Absolutely not.
The Taliban are well organized, they follow a fairly rational and efficient strategy.
They carried out operations on all the cities at the same time.
Therefore, the Afghan government does not have the means nor the sufficient forces to send reinforcements to reconquer these towns.
The Afghan army is always helped by the United States, in particular by the air force.
But this foreign aid is no longer effective because of the dilapidated state of the Afghan army, the morale of the troops which is at its lowest, and the intense corruption in the upper echelons of the army.
The Taliban seized Zaranj on the Iranian border. What impact has the advance of the Taliban had on the neighboring countries of Afghanistan?
At this point, it doesn't really have a direct impact on other countries. The Taliban already control most of the Afghan borders, especially with Iran. This advance simply complements the insurgent control over these borders. What is important now for Afghanistan's neighbors is to negotiate and communicate with the Taliban, more than with the Afghan government. Generally speaking, neighboring countries see the Taliban as the next government in Afghanistan. They anticipate the fall of the current regime. They have received a series of invitations in Russia, China, Iran, or Pakistan (a longtime Taliban ally), so there is some recognition of the Taliban as political interlocutors at the regional level.
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Afghanistan
Taliban