(Financial World) Will the mutated virus strain "derail" the global economic recovery?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, August 4 (Reporter Wang Enbo) The GDP data of the world's major economies in the second quarter are being released one after another.

In the context of the overall recovery, the economic growth of some countries has fallen short of expectations.

The rapid spread of the delta strain of the new crown mutant virus has brought more variables.

Will the global economic recovery process “derail” as a result?

　　Judging from the published data, the world's top two economies, the United States and China, have continued their recovery momentum.

China’s semi-annual economic report released on July 15 shows that in the second quarter, China’s GDP was 28,285.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% at constant prices; an average growth rate of 5.5% over the two years was 0.5% faster than the average growth rate in the first quarter. percentage point.

　　The first estimate released by the US Department of Commerce on July 29 showed that the US real GDP in the second quarter of this year grew at an annual rate of 6.5%, which was lower than the 8.5% expected by the market.

Although the U.S. economy continues to recover due to multiple factors such as wider inoculation of the new crown vaccine and expansion of the scope of economic activities in the U.S. states, the above-mentioned growth figure is only slightly higher than the 6.3% in the first quarter, which is far from market expectations.

　　Turn your eyes to Europe.

Preliminary statistics released by Eurostat show that after seasonal adjustments, the Eurozone’s GDP in the second quarter of this year increased by 2% from the previous quarter and 13.7% year-on-year; the EU’s GDP grew by 1.9% month-on-month and 13.2% year-on-year.

However, Germany, the traditional economic powerhouse of the European Union, performed poorly.

In the second quarter, German GDP grew by 1.5% month-on-month, which was lower than the 2% expected by economists.

　　In addition, data from the Russian Ministry of Economic Development showed that Russia's GDP in the second quarter increased by 10.1% year-on-year, which was an increase of 1.5% compared with the second quarter of 2019.

The department expects that the Russian economy will grow by 3.8% this year, a record high since 2012.

　　In Asia, China's economic recovery is the first to bring benefits to neighboring countries.

Japan has not yet released the second quarter GDP data, but the foreign trade data released show that its exports in the first half of this year increased by 23.2% year-on-year, exceeding the level of the first half of 2019 before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic.

Due to the steady recovery of China's economy, Japan's exports to China in the first half of this year increased by 27% year-on-year to 8.60 trillion yen. China continued to maintain its position as Japan's largest export market.

　　In addition, according to preliminary accounting data released by the Bank of Korea, South Korea's GDP in the second quarter of this year increased by 0.7% from the previous month.

But whether the goal of 4% growth for the whole year can be achieved will also depend on the economic growth rate in the third quarter under the fourth wave of the epidemic.

　　Although the performance of some countries fell short of expectations, the general trend of global economic recovery in the first half of the year remained unchanged.

Wang Qian, chief economist of the Asia-Pacific Region of Pioneer Pilot Investment Strategy and Research Department, pointed out that in order to effectively fight the epidemic, countries around the world have generally adopted unprecedented decisive and resolute measures, laying a solid foundation for a strong economic recovery.

At present, the speed of vaccine development, testing and listing is far faster than expected, and governments and central banks of various countries have also promptly introduced fiscal and monetary support policies.

　　However, Wang Qian also bluntly stated that there are large differences in vaccination rates in different countries and regions, and the effectiveness of governments in alleviating the economic impact of the epidemic varies.

Under the combined effect of these two factors, the trend of economic recovery in the second half of this year and the rest of the world will continue to be uneven.

Judging from the forecast for the whole year, there is still a long way to go before GDP growth returns to the level before the epidemic.

　　What needs to be more vigilant is that the delta strain of the new crown mutation virus is spreading around the world, causing the uncertainty of the global economic recovery to rise again.

　　The report issued by the Zhixin Investment Research Institute cited, for example, that under the influence of virus mutation and large-scale rebound, the global manufacturing industry showed a relatively obvious slowdown in July.

In the same month, the euro zone’s manufacturing growth rate was the lowest since February this year, and the United States was the lowest since January this year. Although manufacturing activities in Japan and South Korea increased in Asia, the expansion of China continued to slow, and ASEAN fell to 13 months. Low since.

The report reminds that countries still cannot relax their vigilance on the prevention and control of the epidemic.

　　Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Bank, analyzed that the mutated virus strain is very contagious, and the effectiveness of existing vaccines has yet to be verified. This may slow down the pace of economic restart in some countries and affect the process of global recovery.

However, from a positive perspective, all parties have accumulated a lot of experience in the process of responding to the virus, the response measures have become more mature, and vaccine research and development are also advancing, and the impact of each round of repeated epidemics on the economy is marginally reduced.

　　"Total these factors, it (mutated virus strain) is a big risk, but for now, it will not derail the global recovery." Ding Shuang said.

(Finish)